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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1570776 times)

itisnotlogical

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18045 on: May 18, 2016, 10:29:47 pm »

The horizontal axis of the graph is on the scale of hundreds of thousands of years. There is clearly a cycle happening on a massive timescale, before the present (as the horizontal axis is labelled "years before the present"). At 0 years before present—the modern day—there is a massive spike in atmospheric CO2, hundreds of ppm above the uninterrupted cycle for hundreds of thousands of years before. Coincidentally, in the range of the graph, temperature pretty closely follows CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Now, the graph is poorly-constructed because a one-pixel-wide line looks like an error. But if the reader assumes the graph was correctly made, and has good eyesight, it's pretty easy to read and understand the implications of.
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wobbly

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18046 on: May 18, 2016, 10:35:18 pm »

Eh, clear to you. I put out the random challenge to show it to a random stranger & see if it's clear to them or if they go WTF does this mean. (As in WTF does that graph mean rather then why is a random stranger shoving graphs in my face).
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Frumple

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18047 on: May 18, 2016, 10:38:15 pm »

Also somewhat helpful is to check the current CO2 ppm levels (which are actually higher than that chart goes :P). Then you can really look back at the chart and go "~135% of the highest amount recorded in last ~half million years say what?"
« Last Edit: May 18, 2016, 10:43:01 pm by Frumple »
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Orange Wizard

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18048 on: May 18, 2016, 10:40:05 pm »

Eh, clear to you. I put out the random challenge to show it to a random stranger & see if it's clear to them or if they go WTF does this mean. (As in WTF does that graph mean rather then why is a random stranger shoving graphs in my face).
Random strangers would probably be put off by any graph, really. This one's good in any context where the thin red line can be pointed out and explained.
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wobbly

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18049 on: May 18, 2016, 10:52:14 pm »

Was about to post a reply then took another look & got what maniac & itisnotlogical were saying. The graph is poorly presented to see the last spike. A simple bit of white spacing would probably highlight that. The point still stands it's not going to be obvious to most people whether you see it or not.

Edit: & by all means point out that thin red line & explain it to people. Do you actually understand what it means? Will they get it? Will they believe you?
« Last Edit: May 18, 2016, 10:57:41 pm by wobbly »
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SalmonGod

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18050 on: May 18, 2016, 10:57:10 pm »

And while the numbers associated with climate change science are severe, and it likely is the most dire issue, it is far from the only dire issue facing the environment due to human activity.  I kind of wish it would step down a notch sometimes, even, because I get the impression many people at this point automatically think "climate change" when someone says "environment".  But we have plasticized dead zones the size of Texas in our oceans, rampant deforestation and habitat loss, huge chemical spills that wipe out most life from major fresh waterways with regularity, we literally pulverize mountains into rubble to get at coal, and we had another oil spill in the gulf just this past weekend.  I very deliberately use the term " environmental destruction" instead of climate change whenever mentioning the environment as an issue.  Because it doesn't really matter what your stance on climate change is.  Shit would still be fucked up enough without it to be alarming.  Environmentalism needs to elevate itself as a political agenda in general, independent of climate change science.
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mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18051 on: May 18, 2016, 11:00:51 pm »

There is a bit of instinct to dig in your heels when climate change is clearly a problem but some people deny it.
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Frumple

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18052 on: May 18, 2016, 11:01:52 pm »

I... pretty sure it does, SG? Certainly most of the literature and whatnot I've encountered throughout my life notes and occasionally puts extra emphasis that stuff, too. Hell, even most of the successful environmental movement related legislature I'm aware of that's got through is revolving around that sort of thing. S'just, well. Climate change gets the most attention for a reason.

Also not just plasticized dead zones! We got other shit going down, too. Some of it even very clearly man made, heh.
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Max™

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18053 on: May 18, 2016, 11:13:55 pm »

And while the numbers associated with climate change science are severe, and it likely is the most dire issue, it is far from the only dire issue facing the environment due to human activity.  I kind of wish it would step down a notch sometimes, even, because I get the impression many people at this point automatically think "climate change" when someone says "environment".  But we have plasticized dead zones the size of Texas in our oceans, rampant deforestation and habitat loss, huge chemical spills that wipe out most life from major fresh waterways with regularity, we literally pulverize mountains into rubble to get at coal, and we had another oil spill in the gulf just this past weekend.  I very deliberately use the term " environmental destruction" instead of climate change whenever mentioning the environment as an issue.  Because it doesn't really matter what your stance on climate change is.  Shit would still be fucked up enough without it to be alarming.  Environmentalism needs to elevate itself as a political agenda in general, independent of climate change science.
Well, in my case I absolutely agree that the floating plastic continents, coal in general (ever worked in a coal plant? I did for a couple weeks, made about a grand a week at 18, which is INSANE, the pores in my nose are still fucked up, fuck coal), deforestation, overhunting, habitat destruction, and shit like the new oil spill (really? I didn't even know about that, fuck) are huge problems. I do not think it is wise to keep burning through fossil fuels, and love our little animal bros that have to share the planet with us. It just frustrates me more seeing people bitch about "carbon footprints" though. Even the AR5 report had to note that plant productivity has been enhanced by CO2, and would be even in the most dire scenarios. Colder climactic periods sucked, by the way. It's no concidence human civilization didn't take off until the most recent glacial period ended.

Smokey the Tailpipe says "Remember kids, only YOU can prevent glaciation, so give a hoot, pollute!"

Spoilers because it's cumbersome and I doubt most of those here care about this discussion, honestly my heart isn't too into it either, as I fear it will just lead to disappointment, I'm mostly just compelled to explain why allowing politicians to vote on scientific research mean the results are no longer science. I was bummed to learn how much of the IPCC reports end up getting cut out and filtered for political reasons in the production of the summary for policymakers. Seeing the word consensus brought up as if it matters in the least for science is another source of disappointment I've had to get used to.
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The problem with the first graph is that humans aren't programmed to see a thin vertical line (right at the end) and think "holy shit!"  It takes years of rigorous training to make people crap their pants if they see that.
Well, that and to make them not ask questions about the other higher peaks, what the method used to determine these temperatures is, what part of the world they represent, what possible sources of error there are, or the reason why sometimes CO2 changes preceded temperature changes, and sometimes they followed them. We need scared voters, not informed ones, after all.

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It's weird because the experiment is fun to talk about and was fun to do. Science is fun, and something which you can literally do in your back yard or bathroom or kitchen. As long as you remember what Feynman said, you'll be fine.

Quote from: Richard P. Feynman
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you've not fooled yourself, it's easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.

I would like to add something that's not essential to science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you're talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like that, when you're not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an ordinary human being. We'll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi.

I'm talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you're maybe wrong, that you ought to do as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.
http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.pdf

Unfortunately it ends up bringing in the political parts, there are people who are more or less inclined to believe me because of what their favored politicians say. I'd much rather be so doubted that other people tried the experiment, came to me with their findings, explained what they did differently, and so forth, than be believed because I happen to fall in with certain preconceptions.

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mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18054 on: May 18, 2016, 11:20:12 pm »

3/10 trying too hard to troll.  ::)
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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smjjames

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18055 on: May 18, 2016, 11:20:35 pm »

And [REDACTED] is what, 'compromise'?
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Max™

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18056 on: May 18, 2016, 11:36:30 pm »

It's when you [REDACTED] on a nun's [REDACTED] and then [REDACTED] [REDACTED] with a croissant and [REDACTED] it all over [REDACTED], I think.

Also, it's really sad that the first thing I thought when I found something about the most recent oil spill was "oh, well, it's only 100,000 barrels"... dammit BP.
3/10 trying too hard to troll.  ::)
Me? Not even 5/7? Honestly not even sure what came across as trolling there.
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wobbly

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18057 on: May 18, 2016, 11:45:28 pm »

Seeing the word consensus brought up as if it matters in the least for science is another source of disappointment I've had to get used to.
Hey, you're posting in a politics thread so you've gotta expect some politcal speak back but feel free to bitch about it, that's also par for the course. If I was a blunt person (which I am) I'd say your posts have contained as much political speak as actual science, so fair is fair. Reread them again if you don't believe me.
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Orange Wizard

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18058 on: May 18, 2016, 11:46:53 pm »

Quote
I'm mostly just compelled to explain why allowing politicians to vote on scientific research mean the results are no longer science
The Climate Change Research Bill 2015 failed 24-88, meaning scientific consensus is now in denial of global warming

That's not how science works. The politicians are voting on policies, not research

Quote
Ideally you would run your own experiments.
Um, why? I can see empirical data that already exists. It's really cool that you're willing to test things yourself, but a bathroom is not a planet.

Quote
That's still just trivia though
He says, having linked a bunch of charts showing temperatures skyrocketing

Quote
You have read all the reports right?
Have you? There's like a million of the bloody things. Ain't nobody got time for that.

Quote
that doesn't matter because I'm trying to use scientific findings in a political discussion
Quote
Why? Because it's about politics, not facts.
Fuck's sake man, we have thousands of scientists who do this shit for a living telling us that temperatures are rising fast, our atmospheric carbon levels are absolutely obscene, and the two are inextricably linked.
Then you're sitting here in the wake of the hottest year on record saying, "nuh uh the scientists are all politicians and don't know how to science, I know this because I puffed some balloons around in my bathroom, everything will be daijoubu".

And [REDACTED] is what, 'compromise'?
EVERYTHING'S GONNA BE ALL RIGHT NOW
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mainiac

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Re: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée
« Reply #18059 on: May 18, 2016, 11:50:03 pm »

Me? Not even 5/7? Honestly not even sure what came across as trolling there.

It's like a textbook example of concern trolling:

Even the AR5 report had to note that plant productivity has been enhanced by CO2, and would be even in the most dire scenarios. Colder climactic periods sucked, by the way. It's no concidence human civilization didn't take off until the most recent glacial period ended.

Smokey the Tailpipe says "Remember kids, only YOU can prevent glaciation, so give a hoot, pollute!"

Acting like it's some big fucking surprise that reality is complex as if everyone else was too stupid to realize this.  Concern trolling of the highest order.  ::)

But why limit your august enlightenment to climate science?  How about spreading your amazing thinking to medicine?  For instance people think that sickle cell anemia is bad but even <mainiac cant be arsed to look up a medical journal> admits that it gives resistance to some infectious diseases.  Or how about economics?  People act like unemployment is bad.  But even the latest Federal Reserve forward guidance statement acknowledged that unemployment puts downward pressure on inflation.  Or why not be a true edgelord?  Everyone acts like murder is so bad but every grade school gym teacher can tell you how important physical exercise is to your health!

No, god didn't grant you with some amazing ability to see both sides of the issue that lesser mortals can only look upon in awe.  You are just ignoring the fact that of the two sides of this argument, the importance overwhelmingly weighs more on one side.

2/10 wasn't even intentional trolling.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.
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