Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Dorsidwarf]

I just dont see why people think it's particularly likely for Rubio to win in South Carolina.  Trump will come out of New Hampshire with a victory.  He will be true to form and giving his fans exactly what they want, mocking Rubio for having lost twice.  The idea as I understood it was that if Trump was a loser he would lose a lot of support.  But he didn't lose a lot of support and he'll probably claw back a little after winning.  So now we are back to where things were before, Trump leading Rubio by 20%.  Even if Bush endorses Rubio and Rubio gains 10% off that, it's still a big gap.  Rubio might even lose to Cruz.

My god I hope Rubio loses to Cruz.

What an unpleasant person.

[smjjames]

Theres also a new one by WBUR http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ that has Rubio and Cruz tied. To me, the NH polls look very volatile. Sure, theres a general trend of Trump, Rubio, and Cruz, but their and Kasich's and Bush's numbers are having wide swings for the same period in those polls.

Also, for SC, the last poll for it was before the last January debate, so, we can't really make any predictions there until newer polls come in.

I just dont see why people think it's particularly likely for Rubio to win in South Carolina.  Trump will come out of New Hampshire with a victory.  He will be true to form and giving his fans exactly what they want, mocking Rubio for having lost twice.  The idea as I understood it was that if Trump was a loser he would lose a lot of support.  But he didn't lose a lot of support and he'll probably claw back a little after winning.  So now we are back to where things were before, Trump leading Rubio by 20%.  Even if Bush endorses Rubio and Rubio gains 10% off that, it's still a big gap.  Rubio might even lose to Cruz.

My god I hope Rubio loses to Cruz.

What an unpleasant person.

Not seeing how Rubio is an unpleasant person.

Also, according to the CNN/WMUR poll: http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/05/politics/new-hampshire-poll-republicans-results-cnn-wmur/index.html Cruz is tied with Kasich. So, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Cruz gets beaten by Kasich.

[mainiac]

Also, for SC, the last poll for it was before the last January debate, so, we can't really make any predictions there until newer polls come in.

Yes the poll was from before but we can compare how Rubio has changed in New Hampshire and national polls since then.  Rubio has made incremental improvements, not nearly enough to catch up with Trump.  It's possible that Rubio has closed the gap a lot more in South Carolina then New Hampshire but given that both the New Hampshire and national polls show about the same thing my best guess is that South Carolina looks the same.

[Shadowlord]

They're all unpleasant people. #RONPOPEIL2016

[mainiac]

The question is never if they are a sonofabitch.  The question is are they your sonofabitch.

[smjjames]

Eh, Trump is going to keep going until the convention, his ego wouldn't let him drop out.

Super Tuesday is when we will see for sure if we are on track for a brokered convention. Don't know how many of the Super Tuesday states are winner-take-all though. Or by the end of March at least.

[scriver]

There's no meaningful contribution to the oil supply from animal bodies. An arbitrarily high amount of it is the global plant explosion of the Carboniferous Era, which contained species with much higher carbon contents than anything alive today.

Yes. Dinosaur plants.

[redwallzyl]

There's no meaningful contribution to the oil supply from animal bodies. An arbitrarily high amount of it is the global plant explosion of the Carboniferous Era, which contained species with much higher carbon contents than anything alive today.

Yes. Dinosaur plants.

isn't most of it alga and bacteria?

[Baffler]

I thought it was mostly woody plants from the carboniferous period that sank into a swamp at some point before the fungi that break down dead wood today were around.

[smjjames]

I thought it was mostly woody plants from the carboniferous period that sank into a swamp at some point before the fungi that break down dead wood today were around.

That's actually coal, not oil. And I'm pretty sure fungi that break down dead wood were around, you can find pre-conditions to coal in peat bogs for example.

ANYWAYS, back on topic: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-turnout-218851 Looks like it may be record turnout in NH, I wonder how many other states will follow suit with record turnouts.

[RedKing]

I just cannot see Rubio winning South Carolina. The place is too racist and too Bible-thumpery for a moderate Hispanic to win there. I'm not even sure Cruz can prevail. This is a state where I think Trump does a little more lip service like "2 Corinthians" and wins in a landslide, and Bush maybe does a little Bible thumping and steals second.

Cruz has a better chance than Rubio, because he downplays his Hispanic-ness (and frankly looks more Canadian than Cuban).

(And yes, I'm aware of the irony of a place I'm calling racist and Bible-thumpery having a female, Indian-American, somewhat practicing Sikh as governor. If Haley *looked* as Indian as say, Bobby Jindal, she'd have never gotten elected.)

[smjjames]

Well, Obama carried SC during the SC primary in 2008, though McCain got that state in 2008 and Romney in 2012. Both by a similar margin actually.

That doesn't neccesarily say anything about how racist that state is because it's already a pretty red state anyway.

[mainiac]

She is a Sihk?  Wow, really good job keeping that on the down-low.

Well, Obama carried SC during the SC primary in 2008

Yeah a democratic primary.  30% of the state is black.  Blacks overwhelmingly vote democratic while democrats are less then half of south carolina.  So a democratic primary in south carolina is overwhelmingly black, making it a very, very different electorate from a republican primary in that state.

[Heron TSG]

Hello, everyone. Figured I'd show up for this thread, it's practically tradition by now!

Where I stand: currently planning to caucus for Sanders, am volunteering for his campaign, etc. Jill Stein is likely to be my backup, unless Cruz gets the nomination. (In which case I might hold my nose for Clinton.)

I almost miss Romney, looking at the Republican field this year. I at least respect Rand Paul, but he's already out. Jeb Bush's "please clap" video has been the highlight of their primary for me so far. What a goober.

[Playergamer]

Jeb Bush's "please clap" video has been the highlight of their primary for me so far. What a goober.

#thatwasajokethough.

I mean, whenever anybody gives a speech during a campaign, there's always a one-second "clap-gap" after they make a point. Instead of just leaving the air opened, he said "please clap" to be funny.

Probably.