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Author Topic: Murrican Politics Megathread 2016: There Will Be Hell Toupée  (Read 1571097 times)

FearfulJesuit

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5385 on: October 21, 2015, 11:50:33 am »

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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5386 on: October 21, 2015, 11:53:38 am »

Speaking of polls, the Republican field seems to have stabilized for the moment. Trump is back in the upper 20's to low 30's, Carson is the only other candidate consistently in double-digits. Fiorina has fallen back into 5-6% range, possibly because of some of the crazy shit she had been saying (being qualified to fight ISIS because she was a medieval history major, for example).

Clinton is actually leading Sanders again in NH (by 4), so it seems the Bern is getting some lidocaine applied to it. Sad, but predictable.

So for the moment, we're looking at a Trump v. Clinton 2016 campaign. Which head-to-head polling has Clinton winning nationally, but of course, it's those battleground states which are truly important.
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
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Bauglir

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5387 on: October 21, 2015, 12:00:22 pm »

Huh, just a bit over a week before I have to eat my words and start taking a Trump nomination as a vaguely conceivable outcome. I may have to make good on my threats to caucus for him!
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

FearfulJesuit

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5388 on: October 21, 2015, 12:03:18 pm »

Speaking of polls, the Republican field seems to have stabilized for the moment. Trump is back in the upper 20's to low 30's, Carson is the only other candidate consistently in double-digits. Fiorina has fallen back into 5-6% range, possibly because of some of the crazy shit she had been saying (being qualified to fight ISIS because she was a medieval history major, for example).

Clinton is actually leading Sanders again in NH (by 4), so it seems the Bern is getting some lidocaine applied to it. Sad, but predictable.

So for the moment, we're looking at a Trump v. Clinton 2016 campaign. Which head-to-head polling has Clinton winning nationally, but of course, it's those battleground states which are truly important.

Yes...except there's a very big possible spanner in the works here. Trump is so noxious that he may well do more for Hispanic voter turnout than any Democratic campaign could, and low Hispanic turnout is a major reason why Arizona and Texas are considered solid red. I think the last time the idea of Texas going swing was brought up, I dismissed it as an overly early prediction that would only bear fruit after a couple more election cycles and another decade of demographic shift- but the prospect of a Trump candidacy adds another variable.

Quick edit because idle speculation without any numbers is a bad habit, so let's get a few.

This Pew Research article from 2012 shows that there were about 9.5 million Hispanics in Texas at the time of writing, making up 38% of the population. It's hard to get better numbers than that, but a quick scan of Google hits indicates that we could probably round this up to 10 million Hispanics, comprising 40% of the population, for next year and not be terribly far off. Here's a Texas Tribune article showing that Hispanic turnout in Texas was 38% in 2012. Finally, Wikipedia tells us that Romney beat Obama in Texas by a margin of about 1.25 million votes.

Let's make some fairly conservative predictions- Hispanic turnout in Texas gets bumped up from 38% to 50%, and Trump retains 35% of the Hispanic vote (a Politifact article says Romney got 40%). We're being pretty generous to the Donald here. The Pew article indicates that 43.9% of the Texas Hispanic population was (at the time) eligible to vote. We know that the Hispanic population is overwhelmingly young, so we'll bump it up to 45% for 2016.

I know I'm basically pulling numbers out of my ass, but I'm trying to underestimate any effect we'd get on the outcome rather than overestimate it. The number of Hispanic Democratic votes cast in 2012 in Texas is then going to be, basically, 9.5 million*43.9% (eligible to vote)*38% (showed up to vote) * 60% (voted Democratic) = about 950,000 votes.

If 50% of Texas Hispanics vote in 2016, voting 35% for Trump, we get 10 million * 45% (eligible) * 50% (show up to vote) * 65% (vote Democratic)= 1.46 million. That's an additional 500,000 votes, which will narrow the margin significantly but probably not enough to make Texas a swing state. (Then again, I did err on the side of caution...)

OK, so Texas probably won't turn blue, but it never hurts to do your math, right?
« Last Edit: October 21, 2015, 12:42:58 pm by FearfulJesuit »
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@Footjob, you can microwave most grains I've tried pretty easily through the microwave, even if they aren't packaged for it.

smjjames

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5389 on: October 21, 2015, 12:03:34 pm »

Does Fiorina actually have a major in Medieval History or is that her 'habit of making stuff up'?

Even if she actually does have a major in that, her using it as an exuse is pretty BS and either way, it looks like her 'habit of making shit up' is biting her in the ass.

Edit: Yeah she does according to wiki, still an extremely BS excuse.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2015, 12:05:50 pm by smjjames »
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Bauglir

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5390 on: October 21, 2015, 12:03:57 pm »

I will eat my left shoe if Trump wins the national election.



On camera.
You'll eat your left shoe on camera, or is this conditional on Trump winning the election on camera?
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In the days when Sussman was a novice, Minsky once came to him as he sat hacking at the PDP-6.
“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
Minsky then shut his eyes. “Why do you close your eyes?”, Sussman asked his teacher.
“So that the room will be empty.”
At that moment, Sussman was enlightened.

Arx

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5391 on: October 21, 2015, 12:05:49 pm »

I'll eat my left shoe, on camera, if Trump wins the national election.

It has been quoted. I'm holding you to this, Ispil.
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smjjames

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5392 on: October 21, 2015, 12:10:48 pm »

Speaking of polls, the Republican field seems to have stabilized for the moment. Trump is back in the upper 20's to low 30's, Carson is the only other candidate consistently in double-digits. Fiorina has fallen back into 5-6% range, possibly because of some of the crazy shit she had been saying (being qualified to fight ISIS because she was a medieval history major, for example).

Clinton is actually leading Sanders again in NH (by 4), so it seems the Bern is getting some lidocaine applied to it. Sad, but predictable.

So for the moment, we're looking at a Trump v. Clinton 2016 campaign. Which head-to-head polling has Clinton winning nationally, but of course, it's those battleground states which are truly important.

Yes...except there's a very big possible spanner in the works here. Trump is so noxious that he may well do more for Hispanic voter turnout than any Democratic campaign could, and low Hispanic turnout is a major reason why Arizona and Texas are considered solid red. I think the last time the idea of Texas going swing was brought up, I dismissed it as an overly early prediction that would only bear fruit after a couple more election cycles and another decade of demographic shift- but the prospect of a Trump candidacy adds another variable.

Trump himself is a spanner in the works, he seems to be the kind of guy who can encourage people who don't generally vote for whatever reason, and I'm not just talking about Latinos.

Also, I'm totally looking forward to the debates between Trump and Clinton. I can't imagine anything other than him trying to do a screaming match and completely failing while Clinton keeps her cool.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5393 on: October 21, 2015, 12:17:02 pm »

Give Trump six months in office, and shoes might be the only thing we can afford to eat.

Other than illegal immigrants. Which are mostly drug dealers and rapists, and some of them I assume, are quite tasty with hot sauce.

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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
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misko27

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5394 on: October 21, 2015, 12:19:56 pm »

Joe Biden will not run in 2016.

NINJAEDIT: I can't believe I didn't get ninja'd.
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Bouchart

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5395 on: October 21, 2015, 12:20:23 pm »

Crazy Joe announced he's not running for prez.  The ol' gaffe machine and groper would've been entertaining.
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Jopax

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5396 on: October 21, 2015, 12:21:19 pm »

In b4 it turns out Trump was doing this all just to get people to get people who would've never voted to vote.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5397 on: October 21, 2015, 12:24:38 pm »

Joe Biden will not run in 2016.

NINJAEDIT: I can't believe I didn't get ninja'd.

You did.

Biden is...... NOT running for president, okay then.

He said that the 'window has closed', so, yeah.....

Time to see where those Biden votes are going to get shuffled to since those votes going for him are a pretty sizeable chunk of the electorate.

Although, looking at the polls from the last week (at least the ones with data asking if Biden doesn't run anyways), it looks like Clinton will gain an even bigger lead over Sanders with Sanders getting the remainder. So, his not running changes nothing and in fact, makes Clinton look even MORE inevitable.

Also, if Clinton is such a great debater, why limit to 6? Yes 28 is too much and that was gruelling for everybody, even the voters, so, why not half of that? Like 14 maybe, or 12 or 11 like the Republicans are doing?
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

smjjames

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5398 on: October 21, 2015, 12:25:16 pm »

Joe Biden will not run in 2016.

NINJAEDIT: I can't believe I didn't get ninja'd.

Yes you did get ninja'd, although technically I didn't ninja with a link, just a statement.

Biden is...... NOT running for president, okay then.

He said that the 'window has closed', so, yeah.....

And I get ninja'd to the response that I didn't ninja misko, lol.
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Baffler

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Re: American Election Megathread- Voting Trump/Wallace in '168
« Reply #5399 on: October 21, 2015, 01:12:00 pm »

I guess ol' Dynamite Joe's got bigger fish to fry.
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