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Petro Poroshenko

5 (29.4%)

Yulia Tymoshenko

2 (11.8%)

Oleg Lyashko

2 (11.8%)

Anatoly Hrytsenko

2 (11.8%)

Serhiy Tihipko

0 (0%)

Mykhailo Dobkin

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Other

6 (35.3%)

Total Members Voted: 17

[mainiac]

I predict that arguing with you is useless, so I am not going to comment your posts any further.

You start with an accusation that the west is to blame and then act offended when I turn it around.  What possible purpose does this serve except to be a dick?  You just act like a dick, wait for someone to call you a dick and then tell them your rude.

Hey guys, what do you think the possible outcome will be that the Russian government is tyrannical and wants to kill as many non-Russians as possible?  I ask politely so please dont antagonize me.

[Knit tie]

I predict that arguing with you is useless, so I am not going to comment your posts any further.

You start with an accusation that the west is to blame and then act offended when I turn it around.  What possible purpose does this serve except to be a dick?  You just act like a dick, wait for someone to call you a dick and then tell them your rude.

Both the west and Russia are to blame for getting into this hardheaded conrontation and prolonging the war.

[mainiac]

Both the west and Russia are to blame for getting into this hardheaded conrontation and prolonging the war.

Yeah just keep telling yourself that, buddy.

[Erkki]

Why make an agreement with someone who just broke several? Also "we take what we want" is not exactly a compromise. "West" would effectively lose its creditability and face by just letting Russia, that has the initiative now, get whatever it wants.

Do Russians understand that EU and NATO both to a very large degree exist because people are fed up with wars and arms races and don't really happen to care if their countries are world wide military powers or not, and especially they don't want the borders to be moved in Europe by force ever again. The scars of the 2 world wars remain very deep.

One can understand Russia's behavior but it doesn't need to be accepted.

I predict that Russians will continue to blame Obama for their own aggression.

Probably.

You start with an accusation that the west is to blame and then act offended when I turn it around.  What possible purpose does this serve except to be a dick?  You just act like a dick, wait for someone to call you a dick and then tell them your rude.

Both the west and Russia are to blame for getting into this hardheaded conrontation and prolonging the war.

It should be easy to to pull troops out of East Ukraine. It would have been easy to not annex Crimea.

[Knit tie]

Both the west and Russia are to blame for getting into this hardheaded conrontation and prolonging the war.

Yeah just keep telling yourself that, buddy.

Fine, Russia's evil, Putin's Hitler, no excuse for invading Ukraine. Can we please get to actual discussion now?

[Erkki]

Semi-related, Russia being our neighbor and a most peace loving totally not at all an expansionist power led by former KGB warmongers, I just received a letter yesterday informing me of my promotion to the rank that probably matches Staff Sergeant(edit: or Sergeant 1st class, I'm not sure tbh as we have considerably less ranks in use) in the US Army.

The enclose also contained a "how-to-self-update-your-military-passport" guide(although I dont have one, the last ones were issued in the 90s or something) and an invite for one to a promotion event with a buffet table and live music.

Finland? If then, you shouldn't worry. We still remember how you kicked our asses in the Winter War and how you saved Saint-Petersburg by didn't kicking our asses in the Second World War.

Why worry? I've had this avatar picture since I registered. These colors don't run.

[mainiac]

Fine, Russia's evil, Putin's Hitler, no excuse for invading Ukraine. Can we please get to actual discussion now?

What's to discuss?  You start with the assumption that the big bad west should give Putin a free hand in Ukraine.  We disagree with that assumption.  Discussion of that goes nowhere.  If we disagree on this point then all discussion will come back to it.

[smjjames]

And also easy to not do it right after the Olympics which makes Russia look like a complete jerk and that they don't care about their reputation.

[Darvi]

Well, I got it. You are very confrontational mainiac: time and time again I find myself agreeing with you in substance, but wishing you were wrong just so I could put you down.

Who needs enemies when you've got friends like these, amirite?

[miljan]

And also easy to not do it right after the Olympics which makes Russia look like a complete jerk and that they don't care about their reputation.

So it would look better if they did before it or waited a year for it? 

[smjjames]

And also easy to not do it right after the Olympics which makes Russia look like a complete jerk and that they don't care about their reputation.

So it would look better if they did before it or waited a year for it? 

Not really.

No idea where my reasoning is going here actually since you have me stumped for an answer.

[mainiac]

Well I think that bluntness is a virtue when faced with doublespeak or evasion.  It's much better to call someone a dirty name then to deceive them.  Frankly I find it disturbing that people put the appearance of respect above respecting someone enough to be honest.

[miljan]

But let's get back onto tracks: can anybody imagine the future of this conflict? Obama has so far refused all of Putin's attempts to reach a compromise at the G20, while Vova has equally steadfastly refused to yield to the western demands and intends to make this a show of will. Escalation, both in warfare and in rhethoric, seems inevitable, and in the worst case scenario we will get another positional artillery war with no clear goal and, consequently, piles of corpses.

Russia will back up because of sanctions (dont think it will happen), or the things will move in favour of rebels with retaking  the east ukraine and stopping there. But pro rebel control areas are lost for sure, as it lost local support of ukraine after the fuck ups it did.

[mainiac]

I mean that sounds nice but I've been thinking about it for about ten minutes now and dont see how it really would work in this case.

[Guardian G.I.]

Spoiler: Shitty theories. Unfortunately I lack mainiac's deep and insightful knowledge of geopolitics, economics and applied obnoxiousness in a political discourse, so I'll spoiler them in order to keep the thread clean (click to show/hide)

1. Conflict subsides, DNR and LNR become what Colonel Cassad scathingly calls "Greater Transnistria", with a destroyed economy and an impoverished populace. Unlikely, since all possible diplomatic negotiations between the opposing parties have already broken down, the fighting is constantly intensifying and nobody, especially the United States, is willing to accept a compromise.
2. Conflict flares up and dies out a few months later with all sides exhausted. The possible results are:
a) No significant gains by either side, end outcome like point 1, unlikely since the United States and the EU are not going to accept an independent DNR and LNR;
b) Ukraine defeats the DNR and LNR, probably with NATO help. The worst possible scenario is Ukrainian nationalists expelling the Russian-speaking "bydlo" inhabiting the "Donbabwe" and "Luganda" like how the Croats did away with the Serbian populace after the fall of Republic of Serbian Krajina in 1995, though I'd really like to see the democratic media whitewashing that.
Ukrainian victory is rather likely to me, way more likely than DNR/LNR victory in any case.
c) DNR/LNR win and expand their territory, probably with the help of Russia. Rather unlikely, since Putin has been constantly trying to end the war with a compromise leaving the DNR and LNR as tiny weak spherelings like Abkhazia. Some say he is afraid that Donbass veterans like Strelkov can become a viable political alternative in Russia and challenge his grip on power, and a decisive DNR/LNR victory can potentially boost their political weight, so he attempts to prevent that.
3. Russia actually invades Ukraine, boots Poroshenko out of office, replaces him with a puppet. Extremely unlikely - Putin is way too indecisive for that.
4. Russia invades Ukraine and later on attacks Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland or some other Eastern European country for some incredibly unclear and incredibly evil reason. Extremely unlikely - it's a guaranteed WW3 and it won't help Putin stay in office.
5. NATO decides to launch a pre-emptive (or "pre-emptive") attack on Russia and its allies - way more likely than a Russian invasion. The real and perceived tactical and technological superiority of NATO forces can make people in charge of the US think that a short conventional war against Russia would solve their political goals (eliminating a potential threat to American hegemony) without any significant political, economic and military damage. Unlike them, Russian high command is aware of Russia's weaknesses against NATO, so a Russian first strike is very unlikely.

EDIT: fixed broken abbr tag.