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Author Topic: Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Town Wins!  (Read 56340 times)

Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #360 on: December 07, 2014, 04:10:18 pm »

Now, to make it easier for my townie brethren to make their decisions, I'm going to go through and do an in-depth analysis of our two venerable scumbuddies this round.

I'll go in reverse order of their discovery, because I like to shake things up!

First, let's look at Masked_Krusader, the first of the Masks de La Scum. He starts with some pretty toothless RVS, which isn't a cardinal scumsin in and of itself. He does mention that he intends to be aggressively and actively scumhunting, that scum are likely to win (A little early to brag, my friend!), and asks a question that raises a few eyebrows. Note that the mislynch from yesterday, Scintillant, immediately votes him for that post right after parroting the first mislynch's scumread. I found that illuminating and funny.

Pretty sure he isn't lying here, considering he never really interacts with his scumbuddy. He's STILL in random questioning mode, even though the game's move on, which is notable on a reread. RVS is scum heaven, because all you have to do i ask and answer easy questions. Look at how noncommital these answers are. He's still done no scumhunting to speak of, despite saying that he intended to actively and aggressively hunt scum. Huh. So let's move on... Still nothing here... It's like he's trying to make it look like he's active without actually -doing- anything.

At long last Masked_Krusader DOES something! Though, it's just confronting and voting our jailkeeper. SCUM LEANS! SCUM LEANS FOR EVERYONE! Well, except for me and the newbie I'm townreading and about to investigate. Early-game scum buddying? Probably. For a little while, he doesn't really post anything of substance until he hops onto the Comrade wagon here, though I can't really scumread him for that specifically, considering myself, Scintillant, and Cheeetar are also on that lynch. Notably, confirmed townie Cheeetar sees Masked_Krusader as scum. Our venerable scum!NQT basically ignores him, which is a good sign of scum association. At this point, MK goes ahead and replaces out.

So, now that 4maskwolf, part two of the Masks de La Scum, has replaced in, let's start looking at his play. Comes right in with an FoS on Cheeetar. (Funny how Cheeetar keeps coming up here.) We have a short interaction before 4maskwolf unvotes Cheeetar and moves on. Comes in with a decent read list, though one that apparently gives a lot of wiggle room. I find it a little funny that he mentions his scum game a lot, though that isn't alignment indicative. Notably, he has null reads on everyone, save for a town read on me and a scum read on Cheeetar. (Interesting, that, considering Cheeetar flipped town.) This post is relevant. Note how NQT was on the D2 mislynch wagon and 4maskwolf safely soft-busing his scumbuddy. He basically spends the rest of the day avoiding doing anything. A point of interest is that he wants Cheeetar lynched all day long, but barely pushes the wagon, then Cheeetar ends up dead. Finally, there's that one last post on day 2 which I'm imagining he's kicking himself over.

P-Edit: Ah, a reply. I've got to go for a bit, but I'll be back to give analysis on our other guilty scum, NQT! Stay tuned, folks. :D
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #361 on: December 07, 2014, 04:32:11 pm »

Scripten, your entire post relies on laughing and mockery to make a point, which is not a town response to being under pressure.  You're not in any immediate danger of dying, and if both Deus Asmoth and Dorsidwarf vote with you then you're safe.  Which leads me to wonder why you're panicking and making these ridiculous arguments.  Each of these is a response to your responses, skipping the first one because it's game-irrelevant.

Laughing and mockery aren't scumtells. That's silly.

Do you think I'm panicking? I wonder why you would think that my reactions are of panic and not because I'm laughing because you're so obvious.

Not a pressure vote, a reaction test, and one which you failed and continue to fail.  It's fascinating how you accuse me of bussing NQT when you look at it from the other side: if NQT is to be believed, then from my perspective Dorsidwarf is the only possible partner for you, and guess who was voting you at day end, hmm?  Dorsidwarf.

Dorsidwarf was voting me for defending Scintillant, my Day 1 inno result. Thank you try again. :P Hehe, silly scum.

I gave that as a point of possibility, not an absolute truth.  As I said, stream-of-consciousness posting.  I said what I could think of when I thought of it.  The fact that you are ignoring this is frankly laughable.  As a point of fact, it can be both ways: appearing one way on the surface, but underneath being another.  I said that you had good justification for an inspection had you been the town cop.

So it's whatever you want it to be whenever you want it to be that? Boy, that's convenient. You know, you're liable to hurt yourself if you keep backpedaling that hard.

Your first two sentences are utterly pointless and inane.  I did review your evidence, and that was a large part of what made me think you were town until you fell straight into a fairly simple trap I laid for you.  But a large amount of towncred is worth nothing for a scum caught in the act.

Because voting for your only stated townread, who's claimed a Power Role, alongside your top scumread isn't insanely scummy? Come on, 4maskwolf, you can give it up now. You wanted to buddy me yesterday, but overnight in the scum topic you all decided that you didn't need to bus NQT after all. Now you have to and you're trying your best to avoid it.

You are once again missing the point.  Your "suspicions" on him gave you a valid reason to "inspect" him last night.  Thus, were you a town cop, you had a valid reason to investigate him, which I gave you credit for.  However, your "suspicions" were based on some rather poor logic and the only possible explanation for them was that you were pissed NQT believed Cheeetar over you.

You do realize that there is no possible way for me to quote the post that you're talking about, right? That is, you are currently doing something that's against the spirit of the game, by misrepping a post that doesn't, in game terms, exist any more.

That said, I was actually railing against the same thing I brought up in my day 3 posts, which was the inconsistency in NQT's read on Scintillant and the incredibly scummy fashion in which he laid his vote at the last minute.

And you were never going to have to work at all, you know who your scumpartner is, and even were you a town that is a pointless comment.  Just because you don't like me making judgements on your post doesn't prevent me from doing so, I read it full well and yelled at you for making it, so I'd remember what it said, thank you very much.

Except you're misrepresenting it and, since it doesn't exist any more, it really shouldn't be a topi of conversation at all. If you want to debate those points, then quote my post where I laid everything out again, where it's fair game for those players who may have missed the post you keep bringing up please.

Your supposed "target" was lynched D2, so you claiming that NQT's was eliminated last night means nothing in the context of this discussion.

I have evidence that supports my statements. Reply to that and back up yours. NQT's was killed entirely due to the scumteam. Mine was out of the control of the scumteam and is thus valid.

Additionally, one way or another the lynch had to fall, a no-lynch is always a bad thing outside of MYLO in games like this, so trying to incriminate NQT for making a decision holds no traction.  I find it suspicious that you didn't take the two seconds to tell us who your N1 result was on in your first post of the day, which, to me, makes it seem like you couldn't figure out who to claim for in case things went sour and you got lynched as scum.

It wasn't particularly important to anyone when I made my post. Again, I have evidence backing up what I've said. Provide yours and put the metaphorical money where your mouth is.

Back in an hour or two to do that analysis of NQT's play.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #362 on: December 07, 2014, 04:57:54 pm »

I'm dead! Good luck guys, I'm relieved I am not faced with the decisions you are.
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #363 on: December 07, 2014, 05:12:59 pm »

Oh god, MYLO with opposing cop claims by two of the strongest players.

BM nightmare.

Lemme read up here.
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #364 on: December 07, 2014, 05:17:01 pm »

Oh god, MYLO with opposing cop claims by two of the strongest players.

Whoa whoa. We're in LyLo. We have to lynch today or we lose.

(Still working on that analysis. :P )
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #365 on: December 07, 2014, 05:45:06 pm »

Okay, so, looking through this clusterfuck, I'm going to start the post with the following.

Fro, my own point of view, there are three possible scumteams. One is NQT plus 4mask, amother is NQT plus DA, and the other is Scripten plus 4mask.

4mask seems, as Scripten said, to have suddenly and weirdly changed around, then because he was named as a secondary scumpick, flipped out and decided that was 100% OMGUS? That looks like a totally justified statement from Scripten to me, because at LyLo you turned for no apparent reason on your townread and sided with the counterclaiming top scumpick

NQT seems to have suddenly hopped off his metanalysis high horse, and justified himself via "Gut feeling", which I don't feel matches any other play of his I've ever, ever, ever seen.

DA needs to comment more. Lurkin' on LyLo ain't no lark.

To summarise:
All players survive sans NQT have been scumreads and or votes of mine, and NQT is acting funny to boot.
There are two scenarios to me which finger NQT as the scum out of the two, and only one that points to Scripten.

Posting NOW to avoid Internet limit finishing on phone.




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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #366 on: December 07, 2014, 05:52:15 pm »

Finishing previous post:


The Scripten + 4mask scenario makes no sense either. Why turn on his buddy suddenly? They could probbably have lynched NQT pretty easy if they really were both scum.

As a result, I'm voting NQT as the scum for playing atypically, hammily apologising as he hammers in on a town minutes before day end, and ultimately due to analysis of the situation and possible situations leaving him being lying scum as the only reasonable interpretation.
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #367 on: December 07, 2014, 06:00:12 pm »

Alright, so here's that look at the NQT slot I promised. We'll start with RangerCado, which shouldn't be too hard considering his lack of content.

So, we start with a what is to become the birdsong of this player, the promise of future posts to stand in for actual activity. :P To be fair, he did post the next RL day, with a fairly long but otherwise relatively empty post. It's not terrible in and of itself, though, which is how he managed to sneak under the radar so well. There are some good points but he never follows any of them up later on. Again, I wasn't scumreading him for this post, since it's all fairly decent, harmless points. Note how little attention he draws to himself. No one can say that he's ever really in the limelight. Votes to extend and promises posts again. However, this time he can't deliver allegedly due to RL issues. Fair enough. However, the in-game day doesn't end until roughly a week(!) later. That's troublesome, though he is replaced and we can begin focusing on NQT.

So here's some classic NQT analysis. (It's almost a parody, it's so classic, in fact.) "Scumreads" Scintillant, a townie I knew was innocent, and tries to set up a mislynch with passive pushes that are meant to lead town. He has barely a sentence on Masked_Krusader, who is his scumbuddy. Why should he have more? He doesn't want to bring him into the limelight. Then we have this nugget of gold. NQT claims that he sees newbie players mislynched all the time, and then brings it up the same day he mislynches Scintillant with blatant scummery. Talk about audacity, eh?

Here's where things get even more interesting. NQT bring up some scummy stuff that Deus Asmoth has done and starts a wagon that he doesn't want to end the day on. Considering DA's behavior doesn't really change throughout the day, this is plenty suspicious. Then he's busy for a while so we don't see much of him.  He comes back to continue to subtly manipulate other players' reads on Scintillant while accusing him of doing the same thing, to push Deus Asmoth just a little more with a blatant scumread, and to "find it interesting" that I'm "reading so much" into his posts. It's like he's implying that I'm scum for analyzing his behavior; that is, scumhunting is scummy to NQT this game. He's too busy to play for a little bit. Eh okay.

Then he finally shows up at the VERY end of the day, scumreading Deus Asmoth, finds issue with Cheeetar's reason for voting Scintillant(Apparently not enough of an issue to keep him from voting him!), soft-defends Scintillant for doing newbie things(Again, not enough of an issue so as to avoid mislynching him!), apparently scumreads me for scumhunting him and Deus Asmoth(You know, the wagon he started!), and then apparently scumreads 4maskwolf. Then there's this lovely little nugget which I have already dug through earlier on.

Phew.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #368 on: December 07, 2014, 08:47:29 pm »

I'm going to have to vote NQT. I can't give an in depth analysis at the moment, but the short form is that his behaviour just seems off. He was questioning Cheeetar's reasoning for voting on Scintillant until an hour before day's end, then voted for Scin over me because of the same reasoning he was questioning an hour before. The flip flop on the vote and him declaring me to be town today make me think he was trying to set me up for the final mislynch, since leaving Scin alive would have had Scripten still defending him.

NQT, what was your reason for investigating Cheeetar in the first night instead of one of the people who were acting suspiciously day one, like Crusader?
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #369 on: December 08, 2014, 02:29:44 pm »

Also, I'd like to mention that I'm going to be dying tonight, so I would recommend people continue scumhunting, even though I think I've found NQT's partner. We cannot rely on my nightly investigation since scum now know exactly who to target. 4maskwolf's replies to me thus far have been incredibly scummy and the player he replaced was also pretty scummy, but it doesn't hurt to continue playing even when we have a relatively likely scumteam caught. Silence only helps the scum.

Though, if 4maskwolf and NQT remain totally silent for the remainder of the game, it's pretty safe to say that they've been caught.
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #370 on: December 08, 2014, 02:43:30 pm »

Mask, why did you go for Scripten over NQT initially? Your reasoning seems to have them pretty even in your suspicions and you've said yourself that you were suspicious of NQT for most of the game.
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #371 on: December 08, 2014, 05:15:40 pm »

DA, can you explain why townclaiming you was clearly NQT "Trying to set you up for the final mislynch"? I really don't follow your reasoning there.
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Scripten

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #372 on: December 08, 2014, 05:34:33 pm »

DA, can you explain why townclaiming you was clearly NQT "Trying to set you up for the final mislynch"? I really don't follow your reasoning there.

Because I appeared to be very suspicious of DA throughout Day 2, so if NQT buddied up to him, it might be thought that DA was NQT's scumbuddy. Therefore, once we have NQT flip, the strategy could have saved NQT's actual scumbuddy on LyLo round 2 on Day 4.
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Dorsidwarf

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #373 on: December 08, 2014, 05:35:57 pm »

Thanks for clarifying, even if you answered a question asked to a different player :/
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Deus Asmoth

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Re: Beginner's Mafia #51: Alien Invasion - Day 3: Even More Clueless Guards
« Reply #374 on: December 08, 2014, 05:49:54 pm »

DA, can you explain why townclaiming you was clearly NQT "Trying to set you up for the final mislynch"? I really don't follow your reasoning there.

Eh yeah, what Scripten said essentially. There's no point in NQT saying that his partner is town if he's scum, it just puts a bullseye on them if he gets lynched today. My feeling on NQT is that he changed his mind from me to Scintillant on day two because Scintillant would have been a harder lynch today. NQT saying I'm town is an insurance policy for if he dies today because it makes me seem scummier tomorrow.
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