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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 262215 times)

Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3060 on: February 01, 2015, 09:07:09 am »

At least we have a chance, Russia has no other fate but repeating late USSR.
What makes you think that?

Everything below is IMO, don't ask for prooflinks, OK?

Russia 2010s vs USSR 1980s

1. Corruption - Communists had no billions worth of personal property in Western countries

2. Aging leader who is stuck in the past. Putin's 62 years is better than Brezhnev +70s  but that will change in ten years.

3. Main source of profit is selling hydrocarbones and natural resources: Russia is in worse shape here, USSR had markets in Warsaw block and other socialist countries.

4. Dependency on import. Russia is in much worse shape here. At least USSR supplied population with its own clothing, its own TVs, its own refrigerators, its own cars, its own passenger jets and almost everything else. Russian domestic production nowadays = assembling foreign components or not modernized Soviet industry straight from 1980s

5. Feeding own population. Thanks to getting rid of collective farms Russian agriculture  is slightly ahead  but it needs import to work properly. Seeds, chemistry, machinery... All comes from the West

6. Useless wasting of money on stuff like Olympic Games that bring no profit but "international prestige". Feeding parasite economics like Cuba or Belarus isn't helping, either.

7. War. USSR had Afghanistan, Russia has Ukraine

8. Cold war. Sure current cool relationships with EU\USA\Japan\ are rather far away from a proper cold war, but Russia is smaller than USSR and has few allies

9. Apathetic population. Soviet people weren't ready to take their fate in their hands but at least smarter part of population never assumed that Brezhnev is a good ruler. Not the case in Russia

10. Demography. Russian situation is worse, average age is going down. Alcoholism and narcotic consumption rates are higher. Universal healthcare is in worse shape (yes, despite technological progress... + again, Soviet medicine wasn't dependent on import)

I don't expect Russia to collapse in the next few years (sadly) But somewhere in 1920s, 1930s or 1940s the whole thing will self-destruct.
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Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3061 on: February 01, 2015, 09:18:16 am »

somewhere in 1920s, 1930s or 1940s the whole thing will self-destruct
woah woah woah

we will have time travel?
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3062 on: February 01, 2015, 09:24:04 am »

I think that was mentioned... two pages ago? Nope, just one page ago.
I only posted a German link though. Knit has a point: It's rather reasonable to try this woman for treason, but in doing so Russia essentially admits its shenanigans with regular troops deployed in Ukraine disguised as volunteers...
Not really. Considering that Russia right now is going through a big army modernisation initiative, it is fully possible that what that woman saw was just a useless Soviet-era military base getting axed. And as for when she may have heard one of the soldiers in that base saying that they might be going on a mission, well, that's rather flimsy evidence - I heard one British soldier say that he is going to get deployed in Kobani, does that allow me to claim that the British army is really going to fight ISIS? And besides, "mission" might mean everything from maneuvers to watching paint dry on a new ballistic missile. So I'd say Russia doesn't admit to anything here, other than the fact that calling foreign embassies to tell them stuff about your country's army is not considered an appropriate thing to do. Again, imagine what would happen if that woman was living in, say, Britain and called the local Chinese embassy to tell them about how she's heard somewhere that one soldier said to another soldier that he was going on a covert mission into Tibet.
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miljan

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3063 on: February 01, 2015, 09:47:19 am »

Ukraine is invading russia  :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAXsf6b6Tmo&feature=youtu.be

"More than one million male citizens of Ukraine, which is currently in
the process of the fourth wave of mobilization, are already on the
territory of the Russian Federation, which was declared by the
resolution of Verkhovnaya Rada as the "aggressor".

The relevant data was reported at a press conference in Kiev by the
founder of the Ukrainian sociological company Research & Branding
Group, Yevgeny Kopatko.

"According to the Federal Migration Service there are 2 million 430
thousand citizens of Ukraine now in Russia, including 1 million 172
thousand men of military age".

Putin allows Ukrainian citizens of military age to live in Russia
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/65289.html
« Last Edit: February 01, 2015, 09:53:54 am by miljan »
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Helgoland

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3064 on: February 01, 2015, 12:05:53 pm »

I think that was mentioned... two pages ago? Nope, just one page ago.
I only posted a German link though. Knit has a point: It's rather reasonable to try this woman for treason, but in doing so Russia essentially admits its shenanigans with regular troops deployed in Ukraine disguised as volunteers...
Not really. Considering that Russia right now is going through a big army modernisation initiative, it is fully possible that what that woman saw was just a useless Soviet-era military base getting axed. And as for when she may have heard one of the soldiers in that base saying that they might be going on a mission, well, that's rather flimsy evidence - I heard one British soldier say that he is going to get deployed in Kobani, does that allow me to claim that the British army is really going to fight ISIS? And besides, "mission" might mean everything from maneuvers to watching paint dry on a new ballistic missile. So I'd say Russia doesn't admit to anything here, other than the fact that calling foreign embassies to tell them stuff about your country's army is not considered an appropriate thing to do. Again, imagine what would happen if that woman was living in, say, Britain and called the local Chinese embassy to tell them about how she's heard somewhere that one soldier said to another soldier that he was going on a covert mission into Tibet.
If what she did was treason then the claims she made must've been true, at least those that involved her direct observations. And soldiers being ordered to Moscow in plain clothing and at their own expense points to their deployment in covert operations, and the only place that might happen right now is Ukraine.
If I called the Russian embassy right now and told them some nonfactual bullshit about the German army, I wouldn't be a traitor. Conversely if I was a traitor, the stuff I'd passed on must've had some factual basis...
(Damn, hypotheticals in German are so much more smooth...)
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3065 on: February 01, 2015, 12:31:28 pm »

I'm having a hard time following the point of this topic anymore.

In actual news, Russia has stopped cooperating with the CTR program, mostly because they can't afford it without US dollars.

We're probably going to go back to Russian officials selling nuclear materials, because why not.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2015, 12:42:21 pm by Mictlantecuhtli »
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Frumple

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3066 on: February 01, 2015, 12:41:26 pm »

... how so? It's just a simple role reversal with reality. Instead of russia annexing ukraine, ukraine has annexed russia. Thus, the state of the thread.

Amusingly enough, it's been russians doing most of it, too. Again like a mirror to reality. You'd think they'd want to talk about russia in the russia thread, but... apparently not.

---

In retrospect, it's almost odd that fairly rabid nationalists say so little about their own country... always in relation to ukraine or some other nation, almost never just about russia.

... what's up with that? Isn't there any celebrations or achievements or local/regional interests to talk about?
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3067 on: February 01, 2015, 12:43:25 pm »

I think that was mentioned... two pages ago? Nope, just one page ago.
I only posted a German link though. Knit has a point: It's rather reasonable to try this woman for treason, but in doing so Russia essentially admits its shenanigans with regular troops deployed in Ukraine disguised as volunteers...
Not really. Considering that Russia right now is going through a big army modernisation initiative, it is fully possible that what that woman saw was just a useless Soviet-era military base getting axed. And as for when she may have heard one of the soldiers in that base saying that they might be going on a mission, well, that's rather flimsy evidence - I heard one British soldier say that he is going to get deployed in Kobani, does that allow me to claim that the British army is really going to fight ISIS? And besides, "mission" might mean everything from maneuvers to watching paint dry on a new ballistic missile. So I'd say Russia doesn't admit to anything here, other than the fact that calling foreign embassies to tell them stuff about your country's army is not considered an appropriate thing to do. Again, imagine what would happen if that woman was living in, say, Britain and called the local Chinese embassy to tell them about how she's heard somewhere that one soldier said to another soldier that he was going on a covert mission into Tibet.
If what she did was treason then the claims she made must've been true, at least those that involved her direct observations. And soldiers being ordered to Moscow in plain clothing and at their own expense points to their deployment in covert operations, and the only place that might happen right now is Ukraine.
If I called the Russian embassy right now and told them some nonfactual bullshit about the German army, I wouldn't be a traitor. Conversely if I was a traitor, the stuff I'd passed on must've had some factual basis...
(Damn, hypotheticals in German are so much more smooth...)
Not true at all. To be accused of treason in Russia, you need not reveal any actual, truthful information to foreign sources, rather, it's the very act of deliberately contacting foreign sources in order to relay classified information to them. And the deployment of Russian troops, unless officially announced, is classified information by default. Differences in legal codes and all. Also, did she really claim that that soldier (one) was to be deployed "to Moscow, in plain clothes and at his own expense," or is it just a juicy fabrication by your source? And even if she did claim that, it is entirely possible that she misinterpreted the statement of a civilian-clothed-at-the-moment serviceman who told his buddy that he has to go on a mission to Moscow, and made an illogical leap to the conclusion that that serviceman was ordered to go to Moscow without putting on a uniform first and at his own expense.

Helgo, we are dealing with literally just women's gossip here, for Christ's sake, you can't seriously claim that stuff some random woman says she once heard somewhere tends to be accurate or even grounded in reality the absolute majority of the time, this particular flibbertigibbet was just stupid enough to to tell her scaretales directly to the Ukrainian embassy.

@Frumple: Nobody here wants to talk about Russia, because nothing really significant or interesting is happening in Russia right now. All the economic problems elicit at most a yawn from the local populace, and aside from that, it's just the same as usual.

And besides, I linked several articles about Russia the previous two pages, don't tell me that I, of all people, don't want to talk about it.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2015, 12:52:54 pm by Knit tie »
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andrea

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3068 on: February 01, 2015, 12:51:41 pm »

If you called to give purposefully false information, you wouldn't be a traitor, you would be making a very dangerous and inappropriate prank call.

However, if you truly believe the information you have is real and are trying to relay it to a foreign embassy... well, that is treason.
If the information turns out to be false you are an ineffective traitor, sure, but not for lack of trying.

Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3069 on: February 01, 2015, 12:52:15 pm »

... how so? It's just a simple role reversal with reality. Instead of russia annexing ukraine, ukraine has annexed russia. Thus, the state of the thread.

Amusingly enough, it's been russians doing most of it, too. Again like a mirror to reality. You'd think they'd want to talk about russia in the russia thread, but... apparently not.

---

In retrospect, it's almost odd that fairly rabid nationalists say so little about their own country... always in relation to ukraine or some other nation, almost never just about russia.

... what's up with that? Isn't there any celebrations or achievements or local/regional interests to talk about?
The nearest celebration will be in 23th February (the Defender of the Fatherland day), please wait calmly until that.
For achievements, I direct you to the last Olympic Games, where we've won.
And what local/regional interests can be more important than the war in the west?
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3070 on: February 01, 2015, 01:01:27 pm »

If you called to give purposefully false information, you wouldn't be a traitor, you would be making a very dangerous and inappropriate prank call.

However, if you truly believe the information you have is real and are trying to relay it to a foreign embassy... well, that is treason.
If the information turns out to be false you are an ineffective traitor, sure, but not for lack of trying.
All that happened, according to multiple sources, is that a Russian housewife saw a local Russian military base becoming emptier at time passes and heard some random soldier saying something about missions and Moscow, and then called the Ukrainian embassy in Russia to tell it that a lot of Russian soldiers are going to Ukraine right now. This was most likely just an example of some truly monumental stupidity, but one that can still fit under the deifinition of "treason."
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Frumple

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3071 on: February 01, 2015, 01:15:43 pm »

For achievements, I direct you to the last Olympic Games, where we've won.
That... that was nearly a year ago. Has there really been nothing noteworthy since...? Surely there's some kind of civil, industrial, or economic... something. Anything?

Quote
And what local/regional interests can be more important than the war in the west?
Not so much a matter of "more important" than I'd call it a matter of "important at all". Looking at this thread, an observer wouldn't be too far off base thinking russia has in fact clambered its entirety into ukraine like some kind of reversed nation-scale matryoshka doll. It seems much like the country's everything is invested in the conflict, which is just... odd. It's not even a substantial conflict, economic repercussions notwithstanding. Surely there's other things going on? I mean, hell, this kind of distraction is perfect for internal power plays of various sorts.
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Sergarr

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3072 on: February 01, 2015, 01:22:39 pm »

For achievements, I direct you to the last Olympic Games, where we've won.
That... that was nearly a year ago. Has there really been nothing noteworthy since...? Surely there's some kind of civil, industrial, or economic... something. Anything?

Quote
And what local/regional interests can be more important than the war in the west?
Not so much a matter of "more important" than I'd call it a matter of "important at all". Looking at this thread, an observer wouldn't be too far off base thinking russia has in fact clambered its entirety into ukraine like some kind of reversed nation-scale matryoshka doll. It seems much like the country's everything is invested in the conflict, which is just... odd. It's not even a substantial conflict, economic repercussions notwithstanding. Surely there's other things going on? I mean, hell, this kind of distraction is perfect for internal power plays of various sorts.
It's a hella substantial conflict. Ukraine is a Russia's cornerstone, and Russia's future depends on the result of this conflict.

Hell the overwhelming majority of news I get around here are about this conflict, or events surrounding it. The rest of them are some unrelated international events. This conflict is literally the most important event for Russia and Russians since the fall of Soviet Union.

Or maybe since the Chechen war, if we go more reasonably. Still extremely important.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2015, 01:31:52 pm by Sergarr »
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miljan

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3073 on: February 01, 2015, 01:28:44 pm »

If you called to give purposefully false information, you wouldn't be a traitor, you would be making a very dangerous and inappropriate prank call.

However, if you truly believe the information you have is real and are trying to relay it to a foreign embassy... well, that is treason.
If the information turns out to be false you are an ineffective traitor, sure, but not for lack of trying.
All that happened, according to multiple sources, is that a Russian housewife saw a local Russian military base becoming emptier at time passes and heard some random soldier saying something about missions and Moscow, and then called the Ukrainian embassy in Russia to tell it that a lot of Russian soldiers are going to Ukraine right now. This was most likely just an example of some truly monumental stupidity, but one that can still fit under the deifinition of "treason."

If i saw that type of news, i would thought its standard west propaganda, but you are saying she really got accused of treason? I mean it really happened? Not just some tabloid news?
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #3074 on: February 01, 2015, 01:32:46 pm »

If you called to give purposefully false information, you wouldn't be a traitor, you would be making a very dangerous and inappropriate prank call.

However, if you truly believe the information you have is real and are trying to relay it to a foreign embassy... well, that is treason.
If the information turns out to be false you are an ineffective traitor, sure, but not for lack of trying.
All that happened, according to multiple sources, is that a Russian housewife saw a local Russian military base becoming emptier at time passes and heard some random soldier saying something about missions and Moscow, and then called the Ukrainian embassy in Russia to tell it that a lot of Russian soldiers are going to Ukraine right now. This was most likely just an example of some truly monumental stupidity, but one that can still fit under the deifinition of "treason."

If i saw that type of news, i would thought its standard west propaganda, but you are saying she really got accused of treason? I mean it really happened? Not just some tabloid news?
That woman hasn't been officially accused of anything at this point, to tell the truth. Although I think that this entire affair is simply the result of some FSB guy powertriping into irrational persecution of minor "enemies of the state," anyway.

@Frumple: Let me repeat myself: there is nothing interesting happening in Russia right now aside from that conflict, at all.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2015, 01:36:38 pm by Knit tie »
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