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Author Topic: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России  (Read 262221 times)

Guardian G.I.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2925 on: January 28, 2015, 01:19:55 pm »

Didn't Crimea already had few referendum but for independence in past? But ukraine did not allow it?
Crimea tried to secede in early 1990s, but they failed due to lack of support from Russia and (reportedly) Ukraine's threat to use military force against Crimea.
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Culise

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2926 on: January 28, 2015, 01:23:01 pm »

EDIT: Jesus Christ, Culise, you should seriously consider a career in journalism. Your posts are 10/10! Just two questions though: if there weren't Russian troops in Crimea, what prevented Kyiv from reacting to its people trying to secede like it reacted to the people of Donbass trying to secede? And if the reunification of Crimea really was what most Crimeans wanted, can we really morally condemn the referendum for not being in accordance with all the European laws? After all, my argument is, and has been, that while the referendum was not perfectly free and fair, it did represent the actual desires of the majority of Crimeans.
Phew.  Well, this is a tricky matter, but politically, actually, forcing Ukraine to take the first step would have actually given the "polite men" credibility as defenders of Crimea.  The critical matter and key issue of the Crimean referendum and subsequent annexation is that everything followed from the initial invasion and seizure of the legislature - the referendum, the appointment of Aksynov, all of it was under the auspices of Russian forces.  While there were protests before the 27th, there was no official response; in fact, the closest thing to an official response was a mandate by the interim Ministry of the Interior to avoid hostilities and prevent any official crack-down.  If, without such an invasion, the Crimean Supreme Council had still voted Mohyliov out and replaced him (likely with another Party of Regions official, and not a Russian Unity minority) and called for such a referendum, I would be much more likely to consider such a thing legitimate.  Under a circumstance where the appointment and referendum were made possible under armed guard in a situation where outside observers were not permitted (especially in the case of February 27, where no independent journalists or outside communication was permitted to the point where MPs' phones were seized as they entered), significant questions cannot help but be raised regarding the legitimacy of the referendum and pro-Russian government. 

But to answer the question, without the polarization and the clear increase in stakes all around by the annexation of Crimea, I actually suspect Ukrainian reaction would have been anemic and weak to any domestic popular opposition, at least at first.  People who have to say "this is not a policy of weakness" are typically worried about exactly that.  The harsh reaction to the Donbass was in part because the Crimea situation had demonstrated quite clearly that a hands-off policy of negotiation was never going to work. 

As to the second point, and this is important, I believe that a referendum may have succeeded.  I do not know such a thing, and there is a significant amount of doubt regarding the matter.  Plainly, at the least, there was sufficient doubt that "alternate steps" had to be taken to ensure a complete blow-out win for the annexation movement.  It is highly improbable, however, that the 42% of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars voted en masse for unification with Russia due to the ethnic polarization of the conflict. 

miljan also asked about previous referendums.  As for formal referendums post-independence, there is only the 1994 referendum, which was delayed from 1992.  Independence was not requested in this referendum, only autonomy, and that did enjoy popular support.  Subsequent polls over the last decade, however, have already been brought up regarding the matter, for more recent data. 
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 01:26:08 pm by Culise »
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2927 on: January 28, 2015, 01:25:36 pm »

Not exactly independence - own parliament and constitution, with authority to declare independence. Kyiv shot them down. And Poroshenko didn't need to hold those people at gunpoint to prevent them from organizing a secession referendum - remove a few politicians, employ far-right radicals to intimidate people, put police on the streets under the pretense of "unrest," falsify results of whatever polls and votes do happen and voila! And I assume you mean EU when you say the west in your post, the USA and its political pet seem rather pro-Ukrainian.

@Helgo: Of course the West isn't monolithic - that's why so few westerners actually participate in this thread.

@Culise: One thing - the conflict wasn't ethnic, but rather ideological. The barriers between Russians and Ukrainians are extremely blurry in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea - they speak the same language and look indistinguishable from one another, and that's just on the surface. In terms of identity, there are many people there who identify as both Russian and Ukrainian, and the poll you are quoting had no option for "both," so it is likely that many of those Crimeans who are listed as "Ukrainian" are also Russian and as such, pro-Russian when it comes to the referendum. Moreover, identifying as Ukrainian does not automatically mean that you are pro-Kyiv, a number of rebels in Donbass identify as Ukrainians, and another number are defectors from the Ukrainian army. And there is also a reason why people might want to join Russia other that national identity - prosperity, since Ukraine has been a horribly mismanaged state with GDP lower than it used to have during the Soviet era. Finally, the Tatars didn't vote in the referendum - they boycotted it, which would, of course, drive the proportion of "yes" votes up, since they were pretty much the only large social group in Crimea that was opposed to uniting with Russia.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 01:46:03 pm by Knit tie »
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Culise

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2928 on: January 28, 2015, 01:34:45 pm »

Herein's the rub.  Poroshenko's hold on Crimea was not nearly that firm.  The police were actually being hampered to avoid escalating the unrest; the head of the security services wanted outside observation from the UN instead of trying to close everything down and conduct their actions under the veil of secrecy.  Protests were essentially unchecked except by local counter-forces and maybe the Mejlis, with Kyiv doing nothing.  By the end of February, Poroshenko actually really would have needed to hold them at gunpoint to stop any secession referendum, had they made the attempt, and he showed neither the ability nor the willingness to make such a drastic step.  At least, not at the time.  As noted, once Crimea seceded, everything radicalized.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 01:36:57 pm by Culise »
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2929 on: January 28, 2015, 01:37:01 pm »

Herein's the rub.  Poroshenko's hold on Crimea was not nearly that firm.  The police were actually being hampered to avoid escalating the unrest; the head of the security services wanted outside observation from the UN instead of trying to close everything down and conduct their actions under the veil of secrecy.  Protests were essentially unchecked except by local counter-forces and maybe the Mejlis, with Kyiv doing nothing.  By the end of February, Poroshenko actually really would have needed to hold them at gunpoint to stop any secession referendum, had they made the attempt, and he showed neither the ability nor the willingness to make such a drastic step.
Poroshenko wasn't the president of Ukraine in March 2014, Turchinov was.
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Culise

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2930 on: January 28, 2015, 01:40:20 pm »

Sorry, a flub.  I was thinking of major figures in the Euromaidan protests in general.  Yes, it was Turchinov who did SBA. 
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Knit tie

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2931 on: January 28, 2015, 01:58:44 pm »

Culise, I edited my post above, please take a look at it.
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Sheb

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2932 on: January 28, 2015, 02:07:06 pm »

Yeah, I'm with Helgo on that one (and have stated such many time). You know, even with Russia's actions as they were, you still have many Europeans thinking they were legitimate. It wouldn't have taken much to tip Western opinion in Russia's favor.

Also, Knit Tie, I think we misunderstood each other. What happened is that the Russian soldiers occupied the Council of Minister and the Parliament building. Then, a communique came out stating that the parliament had elected a new president (the guy whose party had won only a couple seats). No one knows how many MPs were there to vote. The new government claimed 64 (out of 100), but some of them then gave interviews saying they weren't there.

How does what happens in Kiev count as a coup, but this does not?
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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2933 on: January 28, 2015, 02:14:27 pm »

It was a coup - which, again, factors into my argument about the moral equivalence of Maidan and Crimean secession. The differences come after, what with Crimean government not being a clique of oligarchs and all.
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Frumple

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2934 on: January 28, 2015, 02:15:46 pm »

Really? Are you sure that people wouldn't condemn it as illegitimate even then, due to Russia, a geopolitical enemy of the USA and the EU, gaining more land and political influence?
... if the referendum had appeared to be even remotely legitimate, most folks in the US certainly wouldn't have given two shits about it. Doubly so if it had been for something actually believable, like simple independence achieved by a majority vote that ended up being a number that wasn't a blatantly obvious manipulation. And if joining with russia came after that, with genuine signs it's what the people wanted, well, okay.

Instead we had what happened *shrugs*

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2935 on: January 28, 2015, 02:20:41 pm »

Really? Are you sure that people wouldn't condemn it as illegitimate even then, due to Russia, a geopolitical enemy of the USA and the EU, gaining more land and political influence?
... if the referendum had appeared to be even remotely legitimate, most folks in the US certainly wouldn't have given two shits about it. Doubly so if it had been for something actually believable, like simple independence achieved by a majority vote that ended up being a number that wasn't a blatantly obvious manipulation. And if joining with russia came after that, with genuine signs it's what the people wanted, well, okay.

Instead we had what happened *shrugs*

^ This. It is not the ends, it is the apparent means. Recent history has had those of us in the EU anrgy at how the US has played the middle east, and now at how Russia is playing the current situation. Yeah, we are a bunch of moaning do-gooders, right?

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2936 on: January 28, 2015, 02:28:07 pm »

Are you talking about the public opinion here, or about the attitudes of the government?
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wobbly

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2937 on: January 28, 2015, 02:31:15 pm »

The means also make it very hard to believe that this is really what the majority of Crimeans actually wanted. Your talking as if it was clear that this is what the people living in Crimea wanted. If this was so why bother to go to such extremes to get the "right" results? Clearly the Russian government didn't share your confidence on this matter.
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2938 on: January 28, 2015, 02:34:40 pm »

Are you talking about the public opinion here, or about the attitudes of the government?

In general, public opinion. Remember the many anti Iraq war protests in the UK, for example? Not that our government paid much attention, mind you...

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Re: Russia Watch Thread/Ветка о России
« Reply #2939 on: January 28, 2015, 02:41:32 pm »

The means also make it very hard to believe that this is really what the majority of Crimeans actually wanted. Your talking as if it was clear that this is what the people living in Crimea wanted. If this was so why bother to go to such extremes to get the "right" results? Clearly the Russian government didn't share your confidence on this matter.
It was a rather bad PR move on Kremlin's regard, and unnecessary at that, I agree. Nevertheless, I am confident that most Crimeans really wanted to join Russia, due to, among other things, such as polls and demonstrations, the absolute flood of pro-Russian posts and opinions in Crimean social media and a complete lack of anti-Russian ones. And social media is completely uncensored in Russia.

Hell, if you want to know what Crimeans really think, you can ask Avis-Mergulis, he has relatives in Crimea.

@Monkeyhead: Ah, I see! We were talking about different things there - I meant the official Washington's party line in my posts. For all it's worth, I completely agree with you when it comes to the public opinion.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2015, 02:48:22 pm by Knit tie »
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