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Author Topic: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Mafia Victory  (Read 52797 times)

Worldmaster27

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #120 on: October 27, 2014, 08:55:11 pm »

Worldmaster
It will be more difficult because, from my point of view, it is that much more likely that the scum will also be more experienced. Town only have a large advantage in numbers in the first couple of days, if scum is not lynched.
I see. And while town have the majority, are you going to try to find the scum? Who do you think is the scummiest player so far? (i.e. why aren't you voting?)
I hope to find scum, yes.

Flabort seems the scummiest, and I have voted him.

Flabort: Why would you getting Scripten's attention be a bad thing for you? Surely you have nothing to be afraid of, if you're town?

In your Note 4, his vote is to pressure Persus into joining us as far as I can tell. This doesn't seem particularly indicative of him being a pre-game target. As far as you being a pre-game target, I can't speak for Scripten.

On Note 3, his post is certainly not the longest and, if getting attention was linked to length of post, you and persus would have garnered much more from your going back and forth than his one long response.
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Scripten

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #121 on: October 27, 2014, 08:56:14 pm »

Scripten
This:
I see... so why are you still voting Persus? Your initial vote on him was just asking where he'd been.

I'm... not? My vote is on Flabort, and the only reason I waited was to see where the Persus13/Flabort exchange went and see what Flabort did afterwards. I'm now reasonably sure (for day one) that my vote is in a good place for right now.
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flabort

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #122 on: October 27, 2014, 09:05:45 pm »

Flabort: Why would you getting Scripten's attention be a bad thing for you? Surely you have nothing to be afraid of, if you're town?
It's not that I'm afraid of attention. It's that Scripten's intentions for me may not be noble. I fully expect to be the lynch target by this point, but if not, I expect to be killed night 1 or 3.

Quote
In your Note 4, his vote is to pressure Persus into joining us as far as I can tell. This doesn't seem particularly indicative of him being a pre-game target. As far as you being a pre-game target, I can't speak for Scripten.
Fair enough. That's just how I perceived it.

Quote
On Note 3, his post is certainly not the longest and, if getting attention was linked to length of post, you and persus would have garnered much more from your going back and forth than his one long response.
Very true. It's still a longer reply to a single person than most, even if it's only like the 6-8th longest; since Persus/Me hold, like, the top 5 :P
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Jack A T

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #123 on: October 27, 2014, 10:21:14 pm »

Votecount:
*TheDarkStar - (0)
*Scripten - (0)
*Cheeetar - (0)
*flabort - Persus13, Scripten, TheDarkStar, Worldmaster27 (4)
*notquitethere - (0)
*Varee - flabort, Deathsword (2)
*Persus13 - (1)
*Worldmaster27 - notquitethere, Cheeetar (2)
*Deathsword - Varee (1)
Not voting

Extension requests: (0/3)
Shorten requests: (0/5)

Day ends Tuesday, Oct. 28th (tomorrow), at 9:30 PM PST.
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notquitethere

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #124 on: October 28, 2014, 02:26:37 pm »

A bit of analysis

Flabort has had the most non-RVS votes against him. These are from: TDS, Scripten, NQT, Persus, and Worldmaster (four of which are still voting him). The only three non-Flabort players to not have voted him are Deathsword, Cheetah and Varee who each have only made one serious case in the game. Flabort has seriously targeted two players, Persus and Varee. If Flabort is scum then we'd most likely be looking at a Flabort-Cheetah or Flabort-Deathsword team. Flabort is current favourite for the lynch, if he flips town we'd be best to look at who currently has the weakest case on Flabort.

Varee is the second-most favourite for the lynch, he was almost lynched before the initial deadline was extended. He has the strange honour of being the person who was the target of most RVS votes (4 against him, where the next most targeted player only had one RVS vote on them). When he was almost lynched, his lynchers were Urist Imiknorris/Cheetah, TheDarkStar, and Flabort. At the time of his lynch, neither Persus nor Worldmaster had voted. If Varee flips town, these two would come under suspicion for being in a situation where they could have stood by and let a town player die without forming any cases themselves. If Varee flips scum, then Cheetah, TDS and Flabort would look better.



TDS
Did you ever answer my question to you?
You literally just quoted your question and my response to it, unless you had a different question in mind?



We know the least about Deathsword. He has null/neutral reads on almost everyone, he admits the person he's voting for could be town (this is a common hedging technique), he could be in a team with almost anyone (everyone else had null reads on him due to his inactivity). He's the best person to lynch today.

Got to go, will post more later.
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Cheeetar

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #125 on: October 28, 2014, 02:56:50 pm »

Good catch on Deathsword having nearly entirely null/town reads- I don't see him as the best person to lynch though. Along with seeing him as acting mostly townily (in comparison to the more scummy behaviour of some other people, in my opinion), wouldn't lynching the person who we know the least about give the least information from a flip?
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

Persus13

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #126 on: October 28, 2014, 06:50:07 pm »

Flabort:
Persus, we are really asking eachother way too many questions. I found myself skimming your reply; this is bad for both of us, because I might wind up not answering all your questions, and... uh... hmm. Well, that's bad for me because I can't properly concentrate on the game.
Considering it took me over an hour to write that post, I'm inclined to agree.


Who's idea was it to make extensions 48 hours instead of 24, anyways? At this point, perceptions are getting garbled, patience is wearing thin, and conversation is once again slowing down; we're sliding back and you're drawing RVS out by extending.
When did extensions become 48 hours? Also, I'm confused by the whole perception and patience thing.

And since you mention it, why did you want reads from Scripten? Why not someone who puts more value into day 1 reads?
He mentioned he would be unavailable, so I wanted him to contribute. I asked him for reads because I was interested in seeing how he thought of everyone else.

Varee
@Persus, if i have a day inspect, I would throw it at either NQT or flabort, i feel it much more useful in early state of the game to find some active player you can trust on instead of throwing it at random lurker and hope they are intentionally lurking.
Do you feel you can trust any of the currently active players?

NQT:
If A Deathsword lynch doesn't carry, who would you rather go for?


I can't remember who asked for reads, but here's mine:
TDS: Pretty active, few problems with play, possibly too defensive, but that might just be the pot calling the kettle black. neutral lean
Scripten Newish, but seems to be doing okay. Continuing to vote me after I had posted was a little odd, and is parroting parts of my case on flabort, but other wise leaning town.
Cheeetar Not much to go on, UI was not very active and Cheeetar's only been here for a day or so. Null
Flabort: Behaving like a Mafia politician, and using lots of strange metaphors and talking about his skill. His current attack on Scripten I don't really understand his logic. Scum lean
NQT: Playing well, mentioning that he'll probably die in the night is WIFOMy. Town Lean
Varee: Flailing as usual, but making a bit more of an effort. Jury is still out on this one. Null
Persus13: College student who needs to be more committed to Bay12.
Worldmaster27: Playing pretty well for being the newest player in the game. I've helped him to victory as scum before, so I know his scum game but not his town game. Town lean?
Deathsword: Needs to post more, NQT's comments of him do make some sense. Slight scum lean?

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Jack A T

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #127 on: October 28, 2014, 07:04:38 pm »

Votecount:
*TheDarkStar - (0)
*Scripten - (0)
*Cheeetar - (0)
*flabort - Persus13, Scripten, TheDarkStar, Worldmaster27 (4)
*notquitethere - (0)
*Varee - flabort, Deathsword (2)
*Persus13 - (1)
*Worldmaster27 - Cheeetar (1)
*Deathsword - Varee, notquitethere (2)
Not voting

Extension requests: (0/3)
Shorten requests: (0/5)

Day ends today at 9:30 PM PST, about 4 and a half hours from now.
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FUCK YOU JACK
Quote from: Urist Imiknorris, Witches' Coven 2 Elfchat
YOU TRAITOROUS SWINE.
Screw you, Jack.

flabort

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #128 on: October 28, 2014, 09:00:09 pm »

Who's idea was it to make extensions 48 hours instead of 24, anyways? At this point, perceptions are getting garbled, patience is wearing thin, and conversation is once again slowing down; we're sliding back and you're drawing RVS out by extending.
When did extensions become 48 hours? Also, I'm confused by the whole perception and patience thing.
I don't know when it happened, but they are 48 hours:
Extensions increase day length by 48 hours, while shortens will immediately end the day as soon as possible.
I feel like I've played more games now where extensions are 48 than 24, but (before bay12) the vast majority (read:all) games I had played had 24 hour extensions, that rarely got used anyways.
This is also irrelevant to hunting scum.

Quote
And since you mention it, why did you want reads from Scripten? Why not someone who puts more value into day 1 reads?
He mentioned he would be unavailable, so I wanted him to contribute. I asked him for reads because I was interested in seeing how he thought of everyone else.
Fine. I guess that's justified, then. I still don't like it, but I won't count it against you or him.

Not enough activity right now.

Scripten What do you think about being accused of parroting (even if the overall lean was town)?
TheDarkStar What do you think about Deathsword being unable to come up with anything about you?
Deathsword I keep noticing you misplacing the R in Flabort. Is this a reaction test? An accident? Why would you be doing little things like that to bug other players?
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Scripten

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #129 on: October 28, 2014, 09:09:14 pm »

Scripten What do you think about being accused of parroting (even if the overall lean was town)?

Eh, my case was built around an interaction between you and another player for the most part. It's not that big a deal; just means I came to the same conclusion as someone else independently. It's not like the case was that hard to see.
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notquitethere

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #130 on: October 28, 2014, 09:27:17 pm »

Okay, time for some reads. What I do for these is perform what they call an 'iso' on Mafiascum, an isolated look at each person's posts to discern their overall behaviour. If I die in the night, it might be useful for the remaining town players to look back on these impressions. Remember you're trying to find a scum team so be mindful about how players treat one another.

TheDarkStar Asks a doesn't follow up on any of them. He essentially just goes through the motions. After that initial post, other than to ask if he's missed any questions, he asks one questions in the following 6 posts. His later content is a bit better, he provides a range of suspicions and begins to form a case against Flabort. I'm leaning scum here. Most likely scum buddy: Scripten (they both have nice things to say about each other). Least likely scum buddy: Flabort (they both have scum reads on one another)

Scripten Begins the game by claiming "I'm going to reread everyone's responses to RVS", but there's no evidence of this having taken place. After asking no questions for four posts they throw out a vote for inactivity (low-lying target, frankly) and finally ask a question of someone. They eventually extend and apologise for inactivity (that's okay, I know what it's like to have a busy life at times). Eventually when pushed they are able to ask an insightful question about the substantive happenings of the game, They don't talk to anyone for most of the game except NQT and Flabort. Perhaps unsurprisingly, when they give their reads they're mostly town or null with only one scum read. I'm mostly reading them a town player who hasn't cast their net very far, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if they flipped scum. I want to see more interactions between them and others if they survive to Day 2. Most likely scum buddy: anyone except Flabort. Least likely scum buddy: Flabort

Urist Imiknorris/Cheetah UI asks a bunch of questions to begin with, follows up on Varee, has only three posts before the day would have been extended. Bails out early on due to lack of time. So does Cheetah present a clear improvement? He starts with a bunch of reads and some questions, with a fresh target. His reads show genuine engagement and he presents a range of suspects. Buuut then he just focuses on Worldmaster in exclusion of all other avenues. Still, mild town read. Most likely scum buddy: almost anyone. Least likely scum buddy: Worldmaster

Flabort  Most posts in the game so far, which as I've demonstrated elsewhere is a strong town sign. Asks everyone a question to begin with, follows up on some things but most promisingly has a habit of interjecting new questions at regular intervals. He pursues two serious cases, which is one more than everyone else except me and Scripten. His reads show attentiveness and a range of suspicions. Even when tunnelling Persus he keeps up correspondence with everyone. Is highly suspected, but that doesn't mean anything as town are almost always lynched on Day 1. He has the fewest possible scum partners. I'm getting a town read here. Most likely scum partner: Deathsword is pretty much the only option here (they both give each other null reads, everyone else hates Flabort). Least likely scum partner: everyone other than Deathsword.

Varee, Varee has the strange misfortune of being dog-piled at the beginning RVS phase. Like a lot of players, he asks everyone a question to start with. He follows up with some of these and interestingly enough, he asks questions in almost every one of his vast number of posts, keeping the conversation going. His only vote in the whole game is Deathsword for inactivity, which is pretty low lying fruit. Hasn't posted any reads. He's very active and he asks questions, but he doesn't actually seem to be interested in pressing cases. Though this unfortunately is somewhat expected of Varee, we can't keep giving him a free pass, so this is a very mild scum read. Most likely scum partner: pretty much even chance of Cheetah, Scripten or TDS at this stage. Least likely scum partner: Flabort.

Persus13 Day 1: answers a few questions, asks even less and doesn't follow up. For his second post he extends when the day is almost over. Basically he's absent. That's probably excusable for RL reasons. Does he pick things up after the extension? Well, sort of. He gets bogged down tunnelling Flabort, barely looking in on anyone else. He's hardly the least engaged though, he asks questions and keeps some conversations on. His last post shows evidence he's actually been paying some attention to what people are doing. Has yet to give any reads. I guess this is a mild scum read: the lack of involvement early on has been somewhat made up for since, but I'd like to see some proper cases outside of Flabort. Most likely scum partner: Scripten or TDS. Least likely scum partner: Flabort.

WorldMaster Basically just answers questions and throws out RVS-style questions with no follow up for most of the game. His reads show a reasonable range of suspicions. I'm mostly getting an 'inexperienced-player' vibe from him, but that doesn't swing him towards scum or town. He answered my early sustained vote on him without panicking. Reluctantly downgrading him null for now. Most likely scum partner: Scripten. Least likely scum partner: Cheetah.

Deathsword Has the least number of posts (6), which isn't a strong scum tell, but nor is it at all indicative of good town play. Starts the game throwing out three RVS questions. Apparently forgets all about it and then has internet problems. Despite messing his quotes up, when he finally posts he's reasonable engaged (though of course his initial RVS questions are long forgotten). He doesn't talk to many people, though he does manage to pack more questions in to his posts than a lot of others seem to manage. His reads show only one scum lean, and even then he hedges and says his target might just be uncooperative town which is apparently 'just as bad'. Basically he has very low engagement with the game. Initially this was reasonably excused by RL stuff, but recently where he's posted more he's yet to show any sustained desire to actually lynch scum. Scum or at best 'uncooperative town'. Most likely scum partner: Flabort. Least likely scum partner: Varee.




WorldMaster who would you most likely vote on Day 2 if Flabort flips town. What if he flips scum?



Flabort, would you claim if you were about to be mislynched and you had a power role?



DarkStar I find it interesting that you call me out as scummy for following up on my RVS questions when all you did is ask a bunch of RVS questions and not respond to any of the replies. Why did you ask so many obviously questions that you obviously didn't care about?



Varee, could you give us your reads?



Cheetah
Wouldn't lynching the person who we know the least about give the least information from a flip?
I can see why you'd think that, but we'd actually eliminate more possible scum teams when they flip, as we've already pretty much eliminated quite a few possible Flabort scum teams in virtue of the lynch votes on him. More than that, he's been deliberately flying under the radar, he struggles to form suspicions, all firm scum signs.



Deathsword, is lynching 'uncooperative town' a part of your win-con? If not, why aren't you actually trying to hunt scum?



Scripten, you have exactly one scum pick. There are two scum in the game. Hazard a guess as to who the other might be.



Persus
If A Deathsword lynch doesn't carry, who would you rather go for?
TheDarkStar.

NQT: Playing well, mentioning that he'll probably die in the night is WIFOMy. Town Lean
Yeah, people always tell me that. But because it's the scum I'm WIFOMing here, I don't see the problem.

Could I get your reads if you see this before the end of the day?
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Scripten

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #131 on: October 28, 2014, 09:38:21 pm »

Scripten, you have exactly one scum pick. There are two scum in the game. Hazard a guess as to who the other might be.

If Flabort flips scum, I'm going to guess Deathsword. Scum almost never read their buddies as town, but they don't push too hard on their wagons, either.

I don't usually do associative reads before a flip. I find it interesting that you're taking peoples' reads at such face value, though. Why do you expect scum to be forthright in their reads and basically tell us who their buddy is?
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Cheeetar

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #132 on: October 28, 2014, 09:40:57 pm »

I've got a problem here in that I'm not in the optimal circumstance for a deep think on the game at the moment, but I do want to change my vote given that we've a lynch incoming and I'm not sold on the Flabort lynch- slightly scummy yes, but very active and engaged. Don't want to lose him from the game just now.

Unvote Worldmaster27, vote Deathsword. More comfortable losing somebody with lower activity and who (upon rereading) seems more evidently attempting to avoid attention.
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I've played some mafia.

Most of the time when someone is described as politically correct they are simply correct.

notquitethere

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #133 on: October 28, 2014, 09:43:53 pm »

Scripten
I don't usually do associative reads before a flip. I find it interesting that you're taking peoples' reads at such face value, though. Why do you expect scum to be forthright in their reads and basically tell us who their buddy is?
All my reads and speculations are very provisional. I'm mostly basing the buddy likelihood on actual lynching cases players have pushed. Mild distancing wouldn't be completely out of the question, but scum most likely have given each other null reads (if they've given reads at all). If Flabort doesn't flip town, then who would you suspect?



With Cheetah's change of heart, who's going to move their vote to avoid a tie?
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Jack A T

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Re: Not-So-Beginner Mafia 5: Day 1: A Small Problem
« Reply #134 on: October 28, 2014, 09:48:34 pm »

Votecount:
*TheDarkStar - (0)
*Scripten - (0)
*Cheeetar - (0)
*flabort - Persus13, Scripten, TheDarkStar, Worldmaster27 (4)
*notquitethere - (0)
*Varee - flabort, Deathsword (2)
*Persus13 - (0)
*Worldmaster27 - (0)
*Deathsword - Varee, notquitethere, Cheeetar (3)
Not voting

Extension requests: (0/3)
Shorten requests: (0/5)

Day ends today at 9:30 PM PST, about 2 hours from now.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2014, 09:54:49 pm by Jack A T »
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Quote from: Pandarsenic, BYOR 6.3 deadchat
FUCK YOU JACK
Quote from: Urist Imiknorris, Witches' Coven 2 Elfchat
YOU TRAITOROUS SWINE.
Screw you, Jack.
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