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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 207247 times)

martinuzz

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I hear Bannon got some more time on his hands now, perhaps they'll send him
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http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Sheb

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Good God, I hope that it is true. That would be the best outcome, on the whole. The puppet pal president misbehaved, and recieved a thrashing by Old Man Donald, who needed to get something decisive and impressive done, with all recent set-backs.

This is not a good thing. We've effectively served as Al-Qaeda's air force on this one. What I'm seeing is that the missiles all hit around the same spot on the base, and the strike seems to've been aimed at cratering runways, though lots of aircraft were "damaged" which probably means destroyed and at least one pilot was killed. It wasn't nearly as damaging as it could've been. Maybe a show of force for public pressure without planned followup? We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.

I wouldn't go that far, in a vast multi-sided clusterfuck like this you're bound to help one asshole whenever you smack another asshole. You could say that every bomb landing on ISIS is "effectively serving as Assad's air force".
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Antioch

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The United States set a red line and it got crossed. Takes a few years, but you can certainly trust the United States to follow through on promises. Once we've tried everything else.

We don't even know if a red line got crossed. We don't even know what happened to release the poison gas.

Until we know what actually happened military intervention over the issue is just insane.
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Sheb

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The United States set a red line and it got crossed. Takes a few years, but you can certainly trust the United States to follow through on promises. Once we've tried everything else.

We don't even know if a red line got crossed. We don't even know what happened to release the poison gas.

Until we know what actually happened military intervention over the issue is just insane.

I think Strife is referencing the original gas attacks and the Obama's red line.
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Antioch

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The United States set a red line and it got crossed. Takes a few years, but you can certainly trust the United States to follow through on promises. Once we've tried everything else.

We don't even know if a red line got crossed. We don't even know what happened to release the poison gas.

Until we know what actually happened military intervention over the issue is just insane.

I think Strife is referencing the original gas attacks and the Obama's red line.

But after that The US, Russia and Syria agreed that Syria would destroy it's chemical weapons, which they actually did.
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misko27

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Anyone getting deja vu? I could've sworn this was 2013. Quick, tell me, when I say "Mitt Romney", do you think "evil and/or manipulative businessman who will not represent the common man", or "really not such a bad guy, all things considered"?

The United States set a red line and it got crossed. Takes a few years, but you can certainly trust the United States to follow through on promises. Once we've tried everything else.

We don't even know if a red line got crossed. We don't even know what happened to release the poison gas.
I'm sure we'll find out after politely asking whoever the Syrian government is to let us have access to whatever archives they might have and to the site of the incident in a decade or so when the war finally ends. I mean that worked well in so many other places, so we can hopefully look forward to a successful implementation of the "Ignore it until it goes away, mild self-admonishment later that 'maybe we could have done better'" policy that has served the US and others so well in Africa and elsewhere.

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Until we know what actually happened military intervention over the issue is just insane.
Agreed. Military intervention on other grounds, of course, has been justified by quite literally everyone involved in the middle east except for the US, and it doesn't appear to have stopped them. But. of course, the addition of 50 Tomahawk missiles into the complex, multi-sided five-year conflict that has claimed the lives of what is now approaching 500,000 deaths is an unprecedented escalation that should be held to a higher standard than those interventions.

But after that The US, Russia and Syria agreed that Syria would destroy it's chemical weapons, which they actually did.
Which is why those chemical weapons were never heard from again.

Who knew geopolitics could be so simple and easy?
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Antioch

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Anyone getting deja vu? I could've sworn this was 2013. Quick, tell me, when I say "Mitt Romney", do you think "evil and/or manipulative businessman who will not represent the common man", or "really not such a bad guy, all things considered"?

The United States set a red line and it got crossed. Takes a few years, but you can certainly trust the United States to follow through on promises. Once we've tried everything else.

We don't even know if a red line got crossed. We don't even know what happened to release the poison gas.
I'm sure we'll find out after politely asking whoever the Syrian government is to let us have access to whatever archives they might have and to the site of the incident in a decade or so when the war finally ends. I mean that worked well in so many other places, so we can hopefully look forward to a successful implementation of the "Ignore it until it goes away, mild self-admonishment later that 'maybe we could have done better'" policy that has served the US and others so well in Africa and elsewhere.

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Until we know what actually happened military intervention over the issue is just insane.
Agreed. Military intervention on other grounds, of course, has been justified by quite literally everyone involved in the middle east except for the US, and it doesn't appear to have stopped them. But. of course, the addition of 50 Tomahawk missiles into the complex, multi-sided five-year conflict that has claimed the lives of what is now approaching 500,000 deaths is an unprecedented escalation that should be held to a higher standard than those interventions.

But after that The US, Russia and Syria agreed that Syria would destroy it's chemical weapons, which they actually did.
Which is why those chemical weapons were never heard from again.

Who knew geopolitics could be so simple and easy?

The site of the chemical attack is in rebel hands, so inspectors don't need permission of Assad for anything. Inspecting the site can gather crucial information about among other things the delivery method of the gas.

I am not sure this intervention will stop at just 50 tomahawk missiles. Trump is impulsive enough to escalate this further.


Chemical weapons in rebel held areas obviously remained after the Syrian regime destroyed their stockpiles. Were any previous chemical attacks attributed to Assad after that actually proven?
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Helgoland

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Not for an arbitrarily high standard of proof, which is what folks bemoaning the absence of proof to cover their reluctance to actually do anything usually demand.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Antioch

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Not for an arbitrarily high standard of proof, which is what folks bemoaning the absence of proof to cover their reluctance to actually do anything usually demand.

I would on the other hand this attitude is what caused the US to invade Iraq for non-existent weapons of mass destruction and escalated the Vietnam war for a Gulf of Tonkin accident that never happened.
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misko27

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The site of the chemical attack is in rebel hands,
I'm just going to point out that this, combined with your insistence that the rebels may have done this, raises eyebrows: Are the rebels bombing themselves now, to make the Syrian Government look bad?
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so inspectors don't need permission of Assad for anything.
Did I say ask Assad for permission? I don't think I did, and clearly since the US is bombing him they aren't particularly interested in his permission either. I'm just noting that, you know, to get a full understanding of what happened (And We Need To Know The Truth), we should really wait for a lull in the fighting instead of taking a preliminary investigation and possibly making a mistake. After all, we wouldn't want to get things wrong again, right?

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I am not sure this intervention will stop at just 50 tomahawk missiles. Trump is impulsive enough to escalate this further.
Oh no, maybe 100 Tomahawks. Maybe, 150 Tomahawks! That's more than Libya! Well that's obviously qualitatively different from the involvement of Russia, Turkey, Iran, Hezbollah, and everyone else who has intervened just enough to keep their side going; a luxury not heretofore available to the US. Again, truly an unprecedented escalation, sure to face universal condemnation by the UN.

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Chemical weapons in rebel held areas obviously remained after the Syrian regime destroyed their stockpiles.
Now see, I wasn't aware the rebels had Sarin, but your evidence has convinced me. How obvious! Do you think the rebels are also operating the planes that are reported to have dropped the Sarin? Clever bastards.
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Were any previous chemical attacks attributed to Assad after that actually proven?
i'm not sure that you could prove anything in Syria at the moment other than that people are dying and Assad lives on. I read arguments about far more basic and less contentious descriptions of literally everything that happens. Rebels win a victory, but the governemnt retreats in good order. Or government claims a victory, but rebels dispute. Barrel Bombs? Not if we believe Assad. The simple fact of the matter is that all sides will deny everything that doesn't fit with their narrative, and they are all scary people with guns who've already shown their willingness to kill people for thinking differently then they do. Impartiality is not possible until order is restored in Syria, but that is not forthcoming.

Not for an arbitrarily high standard of proof, which is what folks bemoaning the absence of proof to cover their reluctance to actually do anything usually demand.
I too would much prefer a conversation from first principles: "I do not want to go to war in Syria". That's a position I can respect. Simple, sure, but powerful: "Do something"ism is not necessarily a useful impulse. But it does raise a question: Antioch, if it was definitevely proven that Assad had indeed used Sarin Gas in the way that is reported, would you then support the strikes? If not, why raise the argument?
Not for an arbitrarily high standard of proof, which is what folks bemoaning the absence of proof to cover their reluctance to actually do anything usually demand.

I would on the other hand this attitude is what caused the US to invade Iraq for non-existent weapons of mass destruction and escalated the Vietnam war for a Gulf of Tonkin accident that never happened.
Well we already know that the Sarin gas exists (which, I would like to helpfully point out, is in fact classified as a WMD, so go tell Bush we found them), and we already know that people are actually dead. But more broadly this war has gone on for five years now; precisely how long is the United States supposed to sit on its hands? And why not Russia? Or Iran? Or Turkey? Or the Saudis? And the scope of their involvement is far greater than anything the US has done or proposed to do. But no, we must fear the US's involvement, because..? Because it'll shift the war away from Assad? Or because it'll kill a marginally larger number of people than were dying already?

You know what I think? I think if the US actually did what everyone dances around and invaded Syria five years ago, there'd have been fewer deaths than letting it drag into what is soon to be its sixth bloody year with no end in sight. Airstrikes haven't worked, and won't work. Financial support has changed nothing except to shift the front line here and there. A military coalition to remove ISIS has come and gone. It seems everyone has agreed to support their side enough to never lose, and otherwise simply let Syria bleed. Sure, I say. Let places bleed. But let them bleed, don't make them bleed. Just enough support to prop someone up has only exacerbated the situation, and Russia is the chief villain of that story, not the US. It's funny that you are arguing against an invasion, because of all the things the US could do that is probably the only one that would actually end the war. But a commitment to ending the war is expensive, politically as well as materially, and no side has been willing to pay that price; far cheaper to merely keep your side standing and bleeding for you.
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Sheb

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Helgoland

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You know what I think? I think if the US actually did what everyone dances around and invaded Syria five years ago, there'd have been fewer deaths than letting it drag into what is soon to be its sixth bloody year with no end in sight. Airstrikes haven't worked, and won't work. Financial support has changed nothing except to shift the front line here and there. A military coalition to remove ISIS has come and gone. It seems everyone has agreed to support their side enough to never lose, and otherwise simply let Syria bleed. Sure, I say. Let places bleed. But let them bleed, don't make them bleed. Just enough support to prop someone up has only exacerbated the situation, and Russia is the chief villain of that story, not the US. It's funny that you are arguing against an invasion, because of all the things the US could do that is probably the only one that would actually end the war.
I think I'll found a terrorist organization whose main aim is breaking into pacifists' houses at night and branding this onto their foreheads while they sleep.

(Not that I agree that /invasion/ is what was required, since back in the day the FSA (aka The Actual Good Guys) was a formidable force - a no fly zone might very well have been sufficient. But I definitely agree with the sentiment.
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Arguably he's already a progressive, just one in the style of an enlightened Kaiser.
I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.

Antioch

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In case it was already forgotten the US brought forth a vote for a no fly zone in Syria and Russia and China were very much against.
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Sergarr

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There is report of another gas attack, probably involving chlorine dropped from helicopters in Hama.
This all but confirms it - the previous chemical attack was ordered by Russians, and the following Tomahawk strike was agreed upon with Russians well in advance (giving Syrians plenty of time to evacuate everything valuable off the airfield), as a part of a grand conspiracy to divert attention from Trump's Russian links.
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TempAcc

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Geniouse
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