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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 207296 times)

Baffler

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1005 on: February 16, 2016, 07:19:06 pm »

I honestly don't think America is going to be willing to come to Turkey's defense if they keep poking Russia. The strategic implications aside, if there isn't will among the public to get into an extremely one-sided conflict intervening directly in Syria (other than bombing ISIS) there certainly won't be will among the public to rush to Erdrogan's defense against a nation whose military might actually put up a fight. And if America doesn't go, hell will freeze over before any other NATO nation goes.
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smjjames

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1006 on: February 16, 2016, 07:23:44 pm »

That could very well change though if any of the republicans (they're all warhawks to various intensities) or Hillary (who is definetly hawkish) get the presidency next year though.

Sanders doesn't seem very hawkish, actually, I'm not all that sure what his foriegn policy is.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1007 on: February 16, 2016, 07:34:53 pm »

Why are the Kurds allied or cooperating with the Syrian government?
They started off with an informal truce, leaving each others' territories alone whilst they fought off common enemies

I thought the Kurds were among the rebels?
They were a separate faction from the rebels, and the rebels themselves were split up into many factions. From the start the Kurdish rebels were against some of the Turkish-backed rebel groups and were also forbidden to advance on certain towns by both Turkey and USA (who to be fair, were trying to balance elephants), so in 2015 the Syrian gov and Moscow offered them an alliance to help them unify the Kurdish enclaves currently kept apart by Turkish backed forces and a great big swathe of ISIS. With most of the urban centres being controlled by the Syrian gov's various groups of desperate religious minorities and the countryside having been scoured of all religious minorities, the northern countryside is pretty much split between Jihadist groups and Kurds. Technically the Rojava has never stopped being a part of Syria and they've never yet made moves to secure independence from Syria just yet, but they are certainly at the very least securing their autonomous Syrian zone. The unification of Kurdish enclaves into the Rojava also especially alarmed Turkey as did their Western push to the Kurdish enclave of Afrin, for the very clear reason that a large autonomous continuous Kurdish region on the border of southeastern Turkey (where the Turkish Kurds are all at) could have devastating implications, either by supplying PKK with materiel or actively trying to help the PKK join the Rovaja or even try to create Greater Kurdistan as an independent nation state. If they win then the Syrian government will be indebted to them, the enclaves will be united and continuous, capable of supporting one another - and they will be indispensable. From that position of victory they would be able to more formally or informally unite/support the Iraqi and Turkish Kurds. If they are less successful then they win the support of the strongest faction in Syria. Win win

*EDIT
Look at Al-Hasaka, it basically sums up Kurdish-Syrian relations in a nutshell. It's a city in northeastern Syria that was controlled by the Government and has a large Kurdish population, the Kurds and Syrians fought against ISIS alongside one another then when the Syrian troops withdrew West the Kurds took over much of the city's defence and administration, taking control of 3/4 of the city alongside allied Christian Armenian militias and more moderate Muslim militias (some of their members blew up a church but they as a whole keep things less genocidy). The rest of the city is still controlled by the Syrian gov and they get along just fine, I think the Syrian gov has pretty much accepted at this point that Kurdish autonomy is reality if they even hope to retake their Iraqi border. Also quite symbolically when ISIS attacked the Syrian gov's holdouts the Kurds intervened within a week and expelled ISIS from the city and northern countryside giving time for the Syrian army to bring in reinforcements and retake more land too.

Though of course, Al Nusra would be a common enemy.
I think the whole threat of World War III is overblown. Sure there could be some under-the-belt slaps and lowblows between Russia and others, but the real powderkeg is the MidEast. So, I think it'll be localized to the Mideast region.
What happens in the Middle East does not localize in the Middle East very well
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 07:46:38 pm by Loud Whispers »
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MoonyTheHuman

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1008 on: February 16, 2016, 07:49:29 pm »

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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1009 on: February 17, 2016, 12:08:04 am »

That could very well change though if any of the republicans (they're all warhawks to various intensities) or Hillary (who is definetly hawkish) get the presidency next year though.

Sanders doesn't seem very hawkish, actually, I'm not all that sure what his foriegn policy is.
One can be said for sure - Obama will do anything to do nothing. It will be a hard year :(

I suspect that Russia can very well nuke few cities and Obama will draw another red lines in response.

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I honestly don't think America is going to be willing to come to Turkey's defense if they keep poking Russia.
The only Russian thing that Turkey can't counter - nukes. Other than that Russia will lose war with Turkey with no NATO aid.
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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1010 on: February 17, 2016, 12:58:16 am »

No, i don't think so. Turkey alone will not be able to win a total war against Russia even if we remove Atomic weapons from the equation.

While global politics are sometimes a shit thing they can't be ignored. Russia is actually justified with being in Syria (Even if its against the Syrian people wishes) so any tension arising from their presence there is all on Turkey's hands and NATO will not risk dissolving itself by jumping to Turkey's aid. whether its because NATO is a paper tiger these days, because Turkey was never a natural member in NATO or because NATO wish to counter Russia in indirect means to further weaken it before engaging in a direct war is irrelevant. i think that Turkey and Russia both knows that the bottom line is that NATO will do nothing directly to aid a Turkish aggression and any indirect means are not enough in case of a total war.

Turkey has a lot more to lose in case of such a war and while it is possible in theory for Russia to invade Turkey, i can't see Turkey invading Russia, so the risk of damage on population, infrastructure and economy is greater for Turkey.

Another problem Turkey has is that while on paper they might have a strong military, their internal situation is totally different than in Russia. total war will probably result in Turkey having to invest military power to fight rebels from within while Russia is more stable and could probably concentrate on Turkey alone, so even if Russia nor Turkey wins, Turkey could still lose. heck, even if Turkey could somehow and against all odds win against Russia it could still lose.
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Erkki

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1011 on: February 17, 2016, 01:31:45 am »

Turkey is very strong locally, and Syria is almost its own backyard. Neither Turkey or Russia are internally very stable at this point IMHO and neither can afford a war, though fighting a war may, in the minds of Putin or Erdogan, serve some important purpose within their internal politics. Just like manufacturing conflict with Ukraine and indefferencies with EU served a short term purpose for Russian oligarchy.

Turkey or Turkey and Saudis vs. Russia & Syria would be fought in Syria. The latter dont really stand a chance unless Russia wants to and can somehow move in about 10 mechanized Motor Rifle Brigades out of their 40-ish and support them(they cant), but yeah I too think things would escalate further from there. At the very least Iran would interfere, and possibly locally Israel.

It isnt cheap to upkeep 20,000 armored vehicles and a couple of hundred thousand men in a desert for the Saudis so I figure we'll soon see what the're up to. To Iraq or no?

edit: I also dont see withdrawing from Syria and their "ally" an option for Russia. Turkey is poking Syria and Russia with their artillery fire already. There may be no returning now.  :-\
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 01:45:51 am by Erkki »
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miljan

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1012 on: February 17, 2016, 04:39:58 am »

Don't forget iran in the mix, as one of the biggest supporters of syria, including direct military support with their proxy army and ton of credits to the government. And Iraq also that is in coordination with iran, syria and russia, even though they are still semi controlled by USA and very weak at the moment.

Anyway syrian government is advancing very close to Raqqa also, isis main city. If they liberate Aleppo and Raqqa, it will not be end of war, but will be for the first time getting a good sign to finish it off. I dont think even after the territory is liberated both in syria and iraq, that there will be end to the war,as there will be small clashes and terrorist attacks behind the lines.

But the good thing is that ISIS and other terrorist groups are for the first time very obviously losing ground both in syria and iraq after russian bombing started. The only part is that libya is going to shit now with isis and other terrorist groups getting bigger and bigger ground there
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martinuzz

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1013 on: February 17, 2016, 12:01:54 pm »

Latests news, so fresh it barely has any information:

Turkish media report that many people have been injured when an explosion occurred in Turkey's capital, Ankara.
http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/-veel-gewonden-na-explosie-in-ankara~a4246702/

According to Turkish authorities, a vehicle exploded near a military base, within the government's district of Ankara.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 12:09:15 pm by martinuzz »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1014 on: February 17, 2016, 12:18:09 pm »

Russia is good in this kind of war.
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Zangi

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1015 on: February 17, 2016, 12:47:53 pm »

No, i don't think so. Turkey alone will not be able to win a total war against Russia even if we remove Atomic weapons from the equation.

While global politics are sometimes a shit thing they can't be ignored. Russia is actually justified with being in Syria (Even if its against the Syrian people wishes) so any tension arising from their presence there is all on Turkey's hands and NATO will not risk dissolving itself by jumping to Turkey's aid. *snip*
So, maybe we could use some clarification on who the Syrian people are....
Syrian civilians probably generally want the war to be over.
Syrian people who support the Rebels don't want Russia to join in.
Syrian people who support the Gov't want Russia to join in.
Syrian people who support ISIS probably don't want Russia to join in.
The Syrian Kurds, who are also Syrian people, probably want Russia to join in.

... I'm also pretty sure its divided by ethnic/religious lines somewhere along there.
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martinuzz

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1016 on: February 17, 2016, 12:51:34 pm »

Russia is good in this kind of war.

Well, it did cause the Turkish prime minister Davutoglu to cancel his trip to Brussels.
On Thursday and Friday, an European summit meeting is held there about the refugee crisis. Before that, a preliminary meeting with Turkey was planned, where at least 10 countries were scheduled to meet with Davutoglu to discuss the increase in refugees because of the bombing of Aleppo.
Him cancelling now will slow down progress towards finding a solution for the refugee crisis.
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miljan

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1017 on: February 17, 2016, 01:39:52 pm »

Russia is good in this kind of war.

Well, it did cause the Turkish prime minister Davutoglu to cancel his trip to Brussels.
On Thursday and Friday, an European summit meeting is held there about the refugee crisis. Before that, a preliminary meeting with Turkey was planned, where at least 10 countries were scheduled to meet with Davutoglu to discuss the increase in refugees because of the bombing of Aleppo.
Him cancelling now will slow down progress towards finding a solution for the refugee crisis.
I am pretty sure that is not the case, and  think he cancel it because of Ankara blast
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-02-17/turkish-pm-cancels-trip-to-brussels-after-explosion/
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martinuzz

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1018 on: February 17, 2016, 02:18:22 pm »

Yes, that's what I am saying too, I am not sure what you mean there. He cancelled it because of the blast. It's likely just an unfortunate coincidence, but a delay in the EU refugee talks is not bad for Putin.

Turkish authorities say there's 20 dead and 61 wounded so far. Apparently the bomb went off when vehicles carrying military personnel passed by.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #1019 on: February 17, 2016, 02:37:21 pm »

I tend to not believe in coincedences. Somehow Turkey started to get much more terrorist attacks since they shot down the Russian child murderer.
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