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Author Topic: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.  (Read 209173 times)

Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #945 on: February 10, 2016, 11:05:50 am »

Quote
I am not that much supporter of Putins actions in Syria or Crimea, but he was not the one, who created shitty situation for isis to blossom in.
Wrong. Syria could be solved like Libya then there would be no ISIS but Russia vetoed it.
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smjjames

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #946 on: February 10, 2016, 11:18:38 am »

Quote
I am not that much supporter of Putins actions in Syria or Crimea, but he was not the one, who created shitty situation for isis to blossom in.
Wrong. Syria could be solved like Libya then there would be no ISIS but Russia vetoed it.

Uh, you do realize the current state of Libya right now? That's EXACTLY the kind of result we want to avoid with Syria.
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martinuzz

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #947 on: February 10, 2016, 12:06:55 pm »

Quote
I am not that much supporter of Putins actions in Syria or Crimea, but he was not the one, who created shitty situation for isis to blossom in.
Wrong. Syria could be solved like Libya then there would be no ISIS but Russia vetoed it.
Very much this. Russian veto is one of the main reasons it's developed into such a clusterfuck. Why Russian veto? Because Russian has bases in Syria, and economic interests, which they'll stand to lose if Assad is no longer in power.

But then, it's not said that removal of Assad, like what happened to Qadaffi, would have made the region less unstable. For all we know it would have developed into just as much of a clusterfuck, just with a few different players at the table.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 12:09:09 pm by martinuzz »
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Zangi

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #948 on: February 10, 2016, 12:08:58 pm »

My version of the spin:
'Every other foreign interest should just stop pushing their own agenda and see some sensefollow along our agenda instead.  We are right and the rest of you are not.'
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #949 on: February 10, 2016, 12:42:21 pm »

What do you suggest then?
Give up hope that this war will end in a clean or timely fashion. Accept that after the dust has settled the country will be all but destroyed.
Deny Russia any profit from its intervention. Have our proxies shoot down Russian planes, and make sure every single Russian mother understands that the coffins coming back home are the direct result of Russia's adventurism. Make sure not even RT can put a positive spin on what is happening.
Bleed Iranian and Hezbollah forces in a similar way. Make sure the pictures of dead Iranian generals get decent exposure.
Communicate clearly that Assad needs to go, that there can be no peace with him still in power.
Accept that these goals can only be reached by creating further destruction. Accept that this destruction is sad, but necessary for a lasting peace.

Communicate clearly to Russia that we are inclined to respect its interests in the region if it joins us in creating a solution that is acceptable to all sides. Make it clear that we do not intend to firmly embed post-war Syria in our sphere of influence.
Communicate clearly the same thing to Iran. In particular affirm that it is one of our core interests to see the Shia population of Syria protected from Sunni revenge. Offer Iran a big slice of the cake that is political influence in post-war Syria.
Communicate clearly that it is not our goal to eliminate the entire political machinery of the current regime. Our objections should only be directed against Assad and his inner circle - they can serve as a scapegoat for others' crimes, at least to a degree.
Insist that any post-war order in Syria must include a Truth and Reconciliation Comission like they had in South Africa after the end of Apartheid. For the peaceful coexistence of the various ethnic and religious groups it is vital to break the circle of revenge and violence.
Abandon the idea that Syria must survive as a nation-state. Start looking for a solution that gives the various groups a great deal of autonomy, with the central power by design unable to oppress any single one of them: Nobody will have a reason to revive inter-group tensions if all the power they can want already is distributed among their own group.

And this, kids, is how world wars get started.
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Vilanat

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #950 on: February 10, 2016, 01:13:45 pm »

Mostly this, actually. There can't be a solution without Iran, so any solution will have to respect their interests to stand a chance of having long-term success.

Why can't there be a solution without Iran? of course there can be a solution without it. in fact, taking their interests into account is what brings any reasonable solution further away. Iran should not be rewarded for being a major reason for the massacre of hundreds of thousands of people, it should be punished for it.
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Helgoland

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #951 on: February 10, 2016, 02:12:43 pm »

There can't be a solution without Iran because they're a major force on the ground. There can't be a solution without Iran for exactly the same reason that there can't be a solution without the remnants of the regime, or without at least the more moderate Islamist factions, etc etc.

We're long past the point where we can talk about reward and punishment. Right now we have to be wary that we don't sacrifice credibility and core principles in the quest for a not-terrible solution.
Quote
I am not that much supporter of Putins actions in Syria or Crimea, but he was not the one, who created shitty situation for isis to blossom in.
Wrong. Syria could be solved like Libya then there would be no ISIS but Russia vetoed it.

Uh, you do realize the current state of Libya right now? That's EXACTLY the kind of result we want to avoid with Syria.
Libya has enjoyed a couple years of low-intensity civil war, and right now the two big factions have an armistice and are trying to form a government of national unity. Daesh has gained a foothold in the country, but it is without local support and is generally regarded as a foreign entity - thus it will surely be crushed once the main factions have settled their differences.
All in all, Libya's not doing too bad right now. Certainly much better than Syria, anyway.
-snip-

And this, kids, is how world wars get started.
By drawing clear lines while offering to respect the interests of other players? By abandoning the quest for dominance in favor of an approach of mutual agreement? The only player who will be seriously pissed at what I'm proposing is Saudi Arabia, and they and their Wahhabism export are a problem all of their own.

The whole trick of my proposal is that the West must make its strategy widely known - and that it must back its announcements of escalation and deescalation with appropriate action. The US and the European states have lost a lot of credibility with the way they've been treating their red lines: Regaining that credibility is vital to implementing solutions without having to resort to excessive measures.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #952 on: February 10, 2016, 02:22:40 pm »

Give up hope that this war will end in a clean or timely fashion. Accept that after the dust has settled the country will be all but destroyed.
We have refrained from total war because the Kurdish and Government controlled areas have held on quite nicely, and only the Islamist areas have been reduced to rubble because both Western and Eastern air strikes have as of late deliberately targeted them. Unless you plan on exterminating all within Syria, then this is a recipe for creating Libya - only worse.
Deny Russia any profit from its intervention. Have our proxies shoot down Russian planes, and make sure every single Russian mother understands that the coffins coming back home are the direct result of Russia's adventurism. Make sure not even RT can put a positive spin on what is happening.
Who are our proxies? I cannot abide arming islamists for the sole purpose of making Russian mothers cry, there is more at stake here than that. Likewise Helgo we both know in the event of a war between Russia and the West it will not be German soldiers on the frontline. Most amusing is how after the Syrian Kurds also got the backing of Russia, they were able to ignore the US's concerns about protecting Turkish proxies and so the Syrian Kurds have advanced, backed by both US and Russian forces. There are great opportunities to save the Syrian state that have consistently been ignored out of political point scoring contests, I would very much like to see Syria not reduced to rubble nor balkanized merely to deny any utility to regional rivals we are not even at war with.
Bleed Iranian and Hezbollah forces in a similar way. Make sure the pictures of dead Iranian generals get decent exposure.
Communicate clearly that Assad needs to go, that there can be no peace with him still in power.
Accept that these goals can only be reached by creating further destruction. Accept that this destruction is sad, but necessary for a lasting peace.
Accept that doing so will leave only Sunni Islamists in their place. Unless you then intend on exterminating everyone in Syria, there will be no peace thereafter, it will just be one eternal quagmire.
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All good ideas, some of them were already done (though failed, can be redone).
Abandon the idea that Syria must survive as a nation-state. Start looking for a solution that gives the various groups a great deal of autonomy, with the central power by design unable to oppress any single one of them: Nobody will have a reason to revive inter-group tensions if all the power they can want already is distributed among their own group.
And so begins the Balkan wars with each group levied by foreign powers to die for them. Syria must survive as a nation-state if Syrians are to survive at all, or else divided they will be picked apart by their neighbours.

Why should Iran have any claim on Syria? because there are less than 3% Twelvers there? Then by all means, let's give Saudi Arabia a big slice of the political influence in the UK, France and the Netherlands and let's give Germany to Turkey.
Saudi Arabia does not control any armies in the UK, France, Netherlands, nor Turks in Germany, Iran does in Syria.
Don't fall for the Alawites being Shiite myth, because they are not really. the only reason Iran took them as such was because they wanted a claim on Syria. Alawites believe in reincarnation and the trinity, so it is debatable if they can even be considered Muslims.
This is too bigoted and ignorant even for me to handle, and I'm a total shitlord

Review your life
Or is it Because they were active in assisting Assad, the Butcher from Damascus? Iran shouldn't get anything for slaughtering Syrians. if anything, it should invoke the return of the international sanctions on them.
Relax your emotionally excited state and speak normally, if we were to invoke sanctions for nations slaughtering civilians we'd have to void pretty much every single nation in the ME including Israel and nothing would get done, you must first enforce authority before you can subject anyone to a law court.

Vilanat

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #953 on: February 10, 2016, 04:37:51 pm »

Don't fall for the Alawites being Shiite myth, because they are not really. the only reason Iran took them as such was because they wanted a claim on Syria. Alawites believe in reincarnation and the trinity, so it is debatable if they can even be considered Muslims.
This is too bigoted and ignorant even for me to handle, and I'm a total shitlord

Review your life
Nah, it neither bigoted nor ignorant on my side. see, i don't give a darn if Alawites believe in ali, maria magadalene or that women have no soul. the slight problem is that Iranian Shias do give a damn and do treat Alawites like lesser human beings for having said differences in their believe. don't make the mistake that because i state something it has to be my opinion as well.

And it is debatable if Alawites can even be considered Muslims. there is literally a debate among Muslim clerics about it. Their belief in a sort of trinity is according to most established Muslim clerics a blasphemy against Tawhid. this fits more in the religion thread, but in our context, what matters is the relationship to Alawites because of their conflicting core believes with Islam. You may think or believe i am wrong but the Iranians do discriminate against Alawites because of these differences. Alawites can't stand their condescending Iranians overlords and greatly prefer the Russians that sees them as equal.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2016, 06:13:41 pm by Vilanat »
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Strife26

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #954 on: February 10, 2016, 06:36:13 pm »

The Strife solution!

Wash our hands of the entire situation, realize that sticking the country's dick into wildfires rarely ends well, continue totallynotassassinations with drones when it's convenient, kick down the occasional door, and either give a bunch of stuff to the kurds, or support Turkey by ignoring them (not like it's the first time the USA has fucked the Kurds over, after all).
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Loud Whispers

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #955 on: February 10, 2016, 07:06:37 pm »

Nah, it neither bigoted nor ignorant on my side. see, i don't give a darn if Alawites believe in ali, maria magadalene or that women have no soul. the slight problem is that Iranian Shias do give a damn and do treat Alawites like lesser human beings for having said differences in their believe. don't make the mistake that because i state something it has to be my opinion as well.

And it is debatable if Alawites can even be considered Muslims. there is literally a debate among Muslim clerics about it. Their belief in a sort of trinity is according to most established Muslim clerics a blasphemy against Tawhid. this fits more in the religion thread, but in our context, what matters is the relationship to Alawites because of their conflicting core believes with Islam. You may think or believe i am wrong but the Iranians do discriminate against Alawites because of these differences. Alawites can't stand their condescending Iranians overlords and greatly prefer the Russians that sees them as equal.
Yeah amongst Sunni clerics who want to justify exterminating them for being kuffar, that's like trusting Nazi scholars with deciding whether German Jews are aryan or trusting me on whether the Pope is a heretic
I will religion thread if I must

Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #956 on: February 11, 2016, 12:33:28 am »

Love how how Russia proposes ceasefire in Syria starting from march one. It is their style, "we need some time to finish our operation and then make any kind of counter-attack impossible with a ceasefire."

PS: If they fail to reach their goals they will keep advancing after the ceasefire, pretending that they do maintain it.

« Last Edit: February 11, 2016, 12:38:01 am by Ukrainian Ranger »
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Vilanat

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #957 on: February 11, 2016, 01:11:15 am »

Nah, it neither bigoted nor ignorant on my side. see, i don't give a darn if Alawites believe in ali, maria magadalene or that women have no soul. the slight problem is that Iranian Shias do give a damn and do treat Alawites like lesser human beings for having said differences in their believe. don't make the mistake that because i state something it has to be my opinion as well.

And it is debatable if Alawites can even be considered Muslims. there is literally a debate among Muslim clerics about it. Their belief in a sort of trinity is according to most established Muslim clerics a blasphemy against Tawhid. this fits more in the religion thread, but in our context, what matters is the relationship to Alawites because of their conflicting core believes with Islam. You may think or believe i am wrong but the Iranians do discriminate against Alawites because of these differences. Alawites can't stand their condescending Iranians overlords and greatly prefer the Russians that sees them as equal.
Yeah amongst Sunni clerics who want to justify exterminating them for being kuffar, that's like trusting Nazi scholars with deciding whether German Jews are aryan or trusting me on whether the Pope is a heretic
I will religion thread if I must

So, every Sunni cleric wants to exterminate Alawites? This is rather bigoted and ignorant, don't you think?

Anyway, the formula is pretty simple. Islam has five pillars. there can be variations in certain things, but these five pillars are mandatory and unchangeable. without believing in all of those you can't be a Muslim. it's like calling yourself a christian while believing in the Greek pantheon of gods.

The First Pillar, the Shahada or Al-Tahwid does not comply with the Alawite believe in a sort of Trinity.

the Alawite belief also conflicts with the Third, Fourth and Fifth Twelvers pillars.
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Erkki

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #958 on: February 11, 2016, 02:10:00 am »

Love how how Russia proposes ceasefire in Syria starting from march one. It is their style, "we need some time to finish our operation and then make any kind of counter-attack impossible with a ceasefire."

PS: If they fail to reach their goals they will keep advancing after the ceasefire, pretending that they do maintain it.

I guess we'd both be perfectly fine with Russia strenghtening their intervention in Syria. The more the merrier. Right now, Russian-equipped VVS-supported units near Aleppo are less than 20 km to the Turkish border. Things possibly cant become but more interesting.

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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: The Let's go back to Iraq, now without WMDs Thread. About the IS(IS) threat.
« Reply #959 on: February 11, 2016, 02:24:40 am »

Quote
I guess we'd both be perfectly fine with Russia strenghtening their intervention in Syria. The more the merrier.
Every $ of Russian military budget spent on Syria is a $ that will be not spent on Ukraine. It would be a lie if I'd say that I want any kind of peace in Syria. It is cynical but  what can I do?
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