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[misko27]

It requires the mobilization of the world's great powers. Once most of the production in the world is going to the war, it's a world war.

This is a fair way of describing it I think.

I mean, another way of thinking of World War is that we've lived in fear of WW3 since the end of the last one. If the answer to "Can there be more escalation?" is "oh yes, so much more" then its reasonable to conclude its not a World War. It might become some sort of Great Middle Eastern War if it escalates significantly further, but we aren't close to WW3 yet.

Plus, World Wars generally imply Great Powers going up against each other. It's not a World War if its only big powers who aren't all that invested vs smaller powers.

[Zangi]

Its probably more along the lines of Cold War 2.0... At least that is how 'opposing interests', like the Russians would see it anyways, what with the US/Europe/West helping out with regime changes all over the place.  Also the whole proxy war thing we got going in Syria....

>When the dominant world power starts(or at least is seen as) supporting revolutions and doing the proxy war thing across the place.

[Helgoland]

The comparison I've heard rather frequently - but only in German media, unsurprisingly - is that to the Thirty Years' War: A seemingly endless carnage, fuelled by schisms between religious groups, made much worse and much longer by the intervention of pretty much all regional powers around it. At least we got the Westphalian Peace from that one - I wonder if the current Middle Eastern clusterfuck will yield a similarly long-term solution.

[smjjames]

The comparison I've heard rather frequently - but only in German media, unsurprisingly - is that to the Thirty Years' War: A seemingly endless carnage, fuelled by schisms between religious groups, made much worse and much longer by the intervention of pretty much all regional powers around it. At least we got the Westphalian Peace from that one - I wonder if the current Middle Eastern clusterfuck will yield a similarly long-term solution.

I don't know, the Shiias and Sunnis have been killing each other on and off since the two groups split. You don't see that happening with Protestants and Catholics these days. Yes, there was the fights between the IRA and England which just happened to be along the Catholic-Protestant split as well.

[martinuzz]

My newspaper has a grim Assad cartoon today:
http://www.volkskrant.nl/foto/bas-van-der-schot~p3761404/3589868/

[Baffler]

My newspaper has a grim Assad cartoon today:
http://www.volkskrant.nl/foto/bas-van-der-schot~p3761404/3589868/

At this point, the war just needs to end. Right now, the clearest way toward that end is support from Hezbollah and the Russians winning it for the government. Bombing ISIS helps, but it isn't going to be enough if nobody comes into the territory to restore order on the ground. The alternative is just having ISIS move back in once the jets are gone, or if not them then whatever bunch or crazies crawls out from the rubble to take their place. Sure there's the giant pile of rebel groups, but if there any not-crazy rebel groups strong and well-organized enough to fill the void left if it can't be the government, I've never heard of them. It's not ideal, but it's looking like this is the best we're going to get.

[Helgoland]

At this point, the war just needs to end.

Y'know, back in the 80s Assad's daddy turned a city that had dared to revolt against him into rubble, and he stayed in power. Now Assad turned the country that dared to revolt against him into rubble. Do you really think the pattern won't repeat if he stays in power? That's not even 'peace for our time', that's 'Let's close our eyes and ignore the inconvenient fact that the easy way out is no way at all and never has been'.

[Baffler]

At this point, the war just needs to end.

Y'know, back in the 80s Assad's daddy turned a city that had dared to revolt against him into rubble, and he stayed in power. Now Assad turned the country that dared to revolt against him into rubble. Do you really think the pattern won't repeat if he stays in power? That's not even 'peace for our time', that's 'Let's close our eyes and ignore the inconvenient fact that the easy way out is no way at all and never has been'.

What do you suggest then? We might as well be trying to rearrange the sand dunes for all the good dropping bombs is doing us. A slight breeze will disturb whatever pattern we happen to create from up in the air. ISIS isn't worth considering. The Kurds wouldn't want to take it even if they were organized enough to try. And the opposition is just as full of war criminals as the government, but with a generous portion of jihadists and foreign opportunists for flavor.

And if the city that was reduced to rubble when it revolted in the 80's was Hama during this, I would say that there's a little more to it than you're implying.

[Helgoland]

What do you suggest then?

Give up hope that this war will end in a clean or timely fashion. Accept that after the dust has settled the country will be all but destroyed.
Deny Russia any profit from its intervention. Have our proxies shoot down Russian planes, and make sure every single Russian mother understands that the coffins coming back home are the direct result of Russia's adventurism. Make sure not even RT can put a positive spin on what is happening.
Bleed Iranian and Hezbollah forces in a similar way. Make sure the pictures of dead Iranian generals get decent exposure.
Communicate clearly that Assad needs to go, that there can be no peace with him still in power.
Accept that these goals can only be reached by creating further destruction. Accept that this destruction is sad, but necessary for a lasting peace.

Communicate clearly to Russia that we are inclined to respect its interests in the region if it joins us in creating a solution that is acceptable to all sides. Make it clear that we do not intend to firmly embed post-war Syria in our sphere of influence.
Communicate clearly the same thing to Iran. In particular affirm that it is one of our core interests to see the Shia population of Syria protected from Sunni revenge. Offer Iran a big slice of the cake that is political influence in post-war Syria.
Communicate clearly that it is not our goal to eliminate the entire political machinery of the current regime. Our objections should only be directed against Assad and his inner circle - they can serve as a scapegoat for others' crimes, at least to a degree.
Insist that any post-war order in Syria must include a Truth and Reconciliation Comission like they had in South Africa after the end of Apartheid. For the peaceful coexistence of the various ethnic and religious groups it is vital to break the circle of revenge and violence.
Abandon the idea that Syria must survive as a nation-state. Start looking for a solution that gives the various groups a great deal of autonomy, with the central power by design unable to oppress any single one of them: Nobody will have a reason to revive inter-group tensions if all the power they can want already is distributed among their own group.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Deny Russia any profit from its intervention. Have our proxies shoot down Russian planes, and make sure every single Russian mother understands that the coffins coming back home are the direct result of Russia's adventurism. Make sure not even RT can put a positive spin on what is happening.

Shooting down some aircrafts are not enough to do anything with Russian public opinion. At the very least not in the direction you hope for.

German defeat in Battle for Britain with a lot of aircrafts and pilots lost didn't create anti-Hitler sentiments.

[Helgoland]

It's all a question of spin, I guess. If it is 'This wouldn't have happened if Russia hadn't meddled in Syria, and it didn't even accomplish anything', it'll at least make Putin think twice about his next adventure.

[sprinkled chariot]

It is not like you will achieve that much by shooting several planes down.
General opinion would not suddenly change after coffins also, as war in syria is viewed as showing glorius russian awesomeness to the world and restoring the former glory and super power status .
Even salaries decreasing, prices going waaaaay UP, egypt and turkey getting pretty much closed( cheap places, average russian family could easily afford to enjoy time in, so guy lower then middle class gets iron curtained) still dont make Putin less popular generally. The two previous adventures made him some sort of super hero fighting against the world, so if second goes not as planned, well, he may go on the third one.

I am not that much supporter of Putins actions in Syria or Crimea, but he was not the one, who created shitty situation for isis to blossom in. And Assad is one of few forces out there, who dont want to cut off your head, because you dont pray to Allah. And secular opposition is not capable of overwhelming #iwillblowmyselfforallah group

[Vilanat]

Offer Iran a big slice of the cake that is political influence in post-war Syria.

Why should Iran have any claim on Syria? because there are less than 3% Twelvers there? Then by all means, let's give Saudi Arabia a big slice of the political influence in the UK, France and the Netherlands and let's give Germany to Turkey.

Don't fall for the Alawites being Shiite myth, because they are not really. the only reason Iran took them as such was because they wanted a claim on Syria. Alawites believe in reincarnation and the trinity, so it is debatable if they can even be considered Muslims. disregarding the technical details, the Iranian don't care about the Arab Alawites as individuals at all and they treat them accordingly in Syria.

Or is it Because they were active in assisting Assad, the Butcher from Damascus? Iran shouldn't get anything for slaughtering Syrians. if anything, it should invoke the return of the international sanctions on them.

[Helgoland]

Or is it Because they were active in assisting Assad, the Butcher from Damascus?

Mostly this, actually. There can't be a solution without Iran, so any solution will have to respect their interests to stand a chance of having long-term success.

[TheBiggerFish]

PTW.