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[LordBucket]

So here's the deal: google has had driverless vehicles on the road for years doing their video scouting for google maps. Apparently they've recently spent $258 million buying into Uber, which is a ridesharing company with a cellphone app that puts people looking for rides in contact with people willing to drive them places.

So...put those two things together and it looks like we might have robot taxis in our near future:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10267520/Google-planning-robo-taxi-fleet.html

So, imagine this: you pick up your phone and fill in a web form saying where you want to go and checking a couple boxes for how many passengers and how much luggage you have. The robot-taxi fleet gets the message and the closest suitable vehicle is dispatched. Since those vehicles are all networked and able to spread themselves out, some articles I'm reading claim they expect to get two minute response times. Robot taxi takes you where you want to go, fare is handled electronically with no need for cash or credit card at time or transit. You get out, robot taxi leaves. When you want to go home you do the same thing.

Now look 5 years down the road.

Why own a car? Oh, sure. Some people will choose to. But why pay for a car, gas and insurance, why deal with maintenance, traffic and parking, when you can simply push a button on your cellphone and be ferried anywhere you want to go? Lots of people have given up telephone land lines because they have a cellphone. Who still uses a pager? A VCR? In some places (New York, for example) lots of people don't own cars already.  How many people will give up owning a car if it's cheaper and more convenient to give it up?

This also suddenly makes electric cars much more realistic. Battery capacity has always been the problem there, but if there's a fleet of robot taxis, it no longer matters if each vehicle only has a 50 mile range. How long is your average trip? To work, to dinner, the grocery store, the bank, the airport...most of the time anyplace you want to go is probably pretty close. And it doesn't matter how long it takes a robot taxi to recharge its battery because there's no need to take the same vehicle back that you used to get where you're going.

Vehicles can be smaller overall. Most cars sit at least four passengers because people buy cars to meet all their needs. Even if most of the time you drive just yourself, sometimes you need to ferry passengers and groceries or things, so a two-seater isn't enough. But if you're just going to dinner or work, you don't need an 8 seat SUV with ski racks. Large numbers of these taxis could be cheap, tiny, fuel-efficient two-seaters.

So how many jobs and industries does all this potentially render obsolete?

Taxi and limosine companies, drivers, dispatchers, etc. Garbage truck drivers. They already simply push a button to pick up trash. Shipping truckers. Public buses. Car rental. Vallet service. Auto detailing. Subways. Auto dealerships. Driver training. Traffic court. The DMV.  If the switch is made to electric, that takes a significant gouge out of the petroleum industry. And the mechanic business too, since electric motors break less and are easier to maintain. No more oil changes. No more smog emission tests.

What about secondary affects?

Google claims they've run their driverless cars over 700,000 autonomous miles, and in all that time there've been exactly two accidents, both of which were concluded to be the fault of a human driver.

In 2009 there were 10.8 million auto accidents and 35,000 deaths

How much of the insurance industry goes away? How many fewer attorneys? Highway patrol? Auto body repair? Vehicle towing and impounding? How many retail sales and cashier positions are there that relate to the auto industry? According to the Bureau of Labor, over two million auto industry jobs relate to retail services. There are all sorts of secondary effects, industries that wont totally vanish but that will be hit with vastly reduced needs.

Several million jobs and a couple hundred billions of dollars worth of industry might be going away here in the next few years. Sure, some of those will simply be moved around.  Many won't. Electric robot cars might need less maintenance, but they still will need maintenance. Taxi/bus/limo and car rental companies on the other hand could possibly be made to completely disappear, just like the VCR and the pager. Quick check...that's roughly a million jobs right there.

Personally, I think it's a great thing. Automated teller and self-checkout machines haven't made bank and retail clerks obsolete...yet. But this, if it catches on, if we really embrace and accept it as a culture...will be huge.

[i2amroy]

Of course, we'll need more states than just the current four (Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan, Texas also has a law they are considering currently) to approve automated cars before they can really go widespread.

That said I'm fully for this idea. More automated cars is a good thing in my book!

[Xantalos]

Trusting Google with a fleet of robot cars? What could go wrong?


That said, this is an interesting development.

[LordBucket]

Related, everyone remember that Amazon aerial drone delivery service that was widely claimed to be a fake publicity stunt?

No, apparently it's real:

http://www.amazon.com/b?node=8037720011
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/amazon-delivery-drones/

There are regulatory issues, but they have a functional prototype and they're saying it's probably 4-5 years away. So add fedex, the postal service and much of the shipping industry to that list of things that will be obsolete soon.

[Levi]

I can't wait for the google taxis.  It'll make life a bunch easier I'd bet. 

[XXSockXX]

Now look 5 years down the road.

I'd say more like 20 at least. Such a thing would need government approval for driverless vehicles and that could be difficult, partly due to the influence of the automobile lobby (which is still very powerful, at least here where a big part of the economy depends on the car industry directly or indirectly). Also the industry is quite slow, as you can see at the pitiful state of electric cars (which probably was a lobby thing too, with the oil companies).

Why own a car?

That is a change that is already happening I think. Germany is still Car Country, but the car has lost it's appeal as a status symbol. The young men that used to spend all their money on their car until the 90s rather buy expensive cellphones or other stuff. People buy smaller and cheaper cars if they need a new one, usefulness has become much more important than luxury in that regard. And there are more and more young people who don't bother getting a driver's license anymore, because it's very expensive, as is the car itself, with gas and insurance. As public transport gets better, the need for cars has been greatly reduced, at least in non-rural regions.

[i2amroy]

Now look 5 years down the road.

I'd say more like 20 at least. Such a thing would need government approval for driverless vehicles and that could be difficult, partly due to the influence of the automobile lobby (which is still very powerful, at least here where a big part of the economy depends on the car industry directly or indirectly). Also the industry is quite slow, as you can see at the pitiful state of electric cars (which probably was a lobby thing too, with the oil companies).

I think it'll most likely end up being one of those things where it takes a while to get started but then we have a very quick domino effect where any remaining states approve it fairly quickly. Also keep in mind that this would currently be able to be implemented for about 22% of the population already, with that number jumping up to ~30% if Texas passes their law. It would also include 3 of the top 10 most populous states, and with Texas would include 3 of the top 4.

[femmelf]

The future freaks me out.

[XXSockXX]

I think it'll most likely end up being one of those things where it takes a while to get started but then we have a very quick domino effect where any remaining states approve it fairly quickly. Also keep in mind that this would currently be able to be implemented for about 22% of the population already, with that number jumping up to ~30% if Texas passes their law. It would also include 3 of the top 10 most populous states, and with Texas would include 3 of the top 4.

Ok, in the US maybe, but I don't see such a thing approved here in Germany anytime soon.

Also these things take time technologically, cell phones had been around in the 80s, but didn't really take off until the early 2000s, same with laptops. Electric cars have been possible for a very long time, but still seem far from taking off. That's why I guess it would take much longer than 5 years from now to have any significant change with robot cars.

[LordBucket]

I'd say more like 20 at least. Such a thing would need government approval for driverless vehicles

Apparently the way the motor vehicle code was written in most states, it wasn't illegal in the first place. Google has been lobbying for a while to make it explicitly legal, and a couple states have already signed on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Legislation

"In June 2011, the Nevada Legislature passed a law to authorize the use of autonomous cars."

"On 1 July 2012, Florida became the second state to recognize the legality of autonomous vehicles. Florida's law clarifies that, "the State does not prohibit or specifically regulate the testing or operation of autonomous vehicles on public roads."

Ok, in the US maybe, but I don't see such a thing approved here in Germany anytime soon.

From above link

"In 2011, the Freie Universität Berlin developed two autonomous cars to drive in the innercity traffic of Berlin in Germany. Led by the AutoNOMOS group, the two vehicles Spirit of Berlin and MadeInGermany handled intercity traffic, traffic lights and roundabouts between International Congress Centrum and Brandenburg Gate. It was the first car licensed for autonomous driving on the streets and highways in Germany and financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research."

[i2amroy]

Ok, in the US maybe, but I don't see such a thing approved here in Germany anytime soon.

Good point, though there are currently high hopes for Belgium, France and Italy, all of which are currently working on driverless car transport systems. France's Induct Technology is actually the producers of the first self-driving vehicle available for commercial sale, the Navia.

[Sheb]

I wonder about the costs though. How much will it go down with mass use?

[mainiac]

It never ceases to amaze me the lengths that americans will go to avoiding building public transportation infrastructure.  There is some weird mental block where they just dont consider that private vehicles and their infrastructures depreciate just the same as public ones and fail to see how much cheaper public transportation is.  Nobody would ignore the cost of a subway fare but how much attention do people pay to the costs of road construction when buying their car?  How often do people consider that with every mile they are taking another mile off the lifespan of their car?

I really hope this is a dud because I spend a large part of my time in one of the few american cities (Washington) that does have a decent subway system and having google suck the money of the richer DC commuters out of the system would mean higher fares for the rest of us.  Ideally this is just a cheaper taxi service and even if you cut taxi costs in half it would still be too expensive for anyone but the wealthy to use frequently.

[LordBucket]

I wonder about the costs though. How much will it go down with mass use?

I've been looking into that, and nobody seems to know yet. But I can think of a lot of reasons why it would be cheap. In fact, apparently google is looking into making it a free service to users who are willing to watch ads during their trip, and/or are being transported to places of business by getting those businesses to pay for the taxi service in anticipation of purchases being made:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/28/google_patent_taxi_service_for_shopping/

"The present invention relates generally to arranging for free or discounted transportation to an advertiser's business location," "

...the design goes on to describe how taxis can provide targeted advertisements to passengers, how the system can pay referrals to cabbies for recommended places to go, and so on."

[XXSockXX]

Ok, in the US maybe, but I don't see such a thing approved here in Germany anytime soon.

From above link

"In 2011, the Freie Universität Berlin developed two autonomous cars to drive in the innercity traffic of Berlin in Germany. Led by the AutoNOMOS group, the two vehicles Spirit of Berlin and MadeInGermany handled intercity traffic, traffic lights and roundabouts between International Congress Centrum and Brandenburg Gate. It was the first car licensed for autonomous driving on the streets and highways in Germany and financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research."

That was just a science project, interesting though. For regular public use it would probably be different I guess. I'm also not saying it's impossible, just that it would take some time and face some strong resistance from politics and the automobile lobby.
Also with the public transport here (which of course also has it's own lobby), I don't think it is needed as much as elsewhere.