So here's the deal: google has had
driverless vehicles on the road for years doing their video scouting for google maps. Apparently they've recently spent
$258 million buying into Uber, which is a ridesharing company with a cellphone app that puts people looking for rides in contact with people willing to drive them places.
So...put those two things together and it looks like we might have robot taxis in our near future:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10267520/Google-planning-robo-taxi-fleet.htmlSo, imagine this: you pick up your phone and fill in a web form saying where you want to go and checking a couple boxes for how many passengers and how much luggage you have. The robot-taxi fleet gets the message and the closest suitable vehicle is dispatched. Since those vehicles are all networked and able to spread themselves out, some articles I'm reading claim they expect to get two minute response times. Robot taxi takes you where you want to go, fare is handled electronically with no need for cash or credit card at time or transit. You get out, robot taxi leaves. When you want to go home you do the same thing.
Now look 5 years down the road.
Why own a car? Oh, sure. Some people will choose to. But why pay for a car, gas and insurance, why deal with maintenance, traffic and parking, when you can simply push a button on your cellphone and be ferried anywhere you want to go? Lots of people have given up telephone land lines because they have a cellphone. Who still uses a pager? A VCR? In some places (New York, for example) lots of people don't own cars already. How many people will give up owning a car if it's cheaper and more convenient to give it up?
This also suddenly makes electric cars much more realistic. Battery capacity has always been the problem there, but if there's a fleet of robot taxis, it no longer matters if each vehicle only has a 50 mile range. How long is your average trip? To work, to dinner, the grocery store, the bank, the airport...most of the time anyplace you want to go is probably pretty close. And it doesn't matter how long it takes a robot taxi to recharge its battery because there's no need to take the same vehicle back that you used to get where you're going.
Vehicles can be smaller overall. Most cars sit at least four passengers because people buy cars to meet all their needs. Even if most of the time you drive just yourself, sometimes you need to ferry passengers and groceries or things, so a two-seater isn't enough. But if you're just going to dinner or work, you don't need an 8 seat SUV with ski racks. Large numbers of these taxis could be cheap, tiny, fuel-efficient two-seaters.
So how many jobs and industries does all this potentially render obsolete?
Taxi and limosine companies, drivers, dispatchers, etc. Garbage truck drivers. They already simply push a button to pick up trash. Shipping truckers. Public buses. Car rental. Vallet service. Auto detailing. Subways. Auto dealerships. Driver training. Traffic court. The DMV. If the switch is made to electric, that takes a significant gouge out of the petroleum industry. And the mechanic business too, since electric motors break less and are easier to maintain. No more oil changes. No more smog emission tests.
What about secondary affects?
Google claims they've run their driverless cars over
700,000 autonomous miles, and in all that time there've been exactly two accidents, both of which were concluded to be the fault of a human driver.
In 2009 there were 10.8 million auto accidents and 35,000 deathsHow much of the insurance industry goes away? How many fewer attorneys? Highway patrol? Auto body repair? Vehicle towing and impounding? How many retail sales and cashier positions are there that relate to the auto industry? According to the Bureau of Labor,
over two million auto industry jobs relate to retail services. There are all sorts of secondary effects, industries that wont totally vanish but that will be hit with vastly reduced needs.
Several million jobs and a couple hundred billions of dollars worth of industry might be going away here in the next few years. Sure, some of those will simply be moved around. Many won't. Electric robot cars might need less maintenance, but they still will need maintenance. Taxi/bus/limo and car rental companies on the other hand could possibly be made to completely disappear, just like the VCR and the pager. Quick check...that's roughly a million jobs right there.
Personally, I think it's a great thing. Automated teller and self-checkout machines haven't made bank and retail clerks obsolete...yet. But this, if it catches on, if we really embrace and accept it as a culture...will be
huge.