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Author Topic: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread  (Read 85008 times)

evilcherry

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #150 on: October 03, 2014, 11:31:16 am »

We have a multitude of right sectors, and, frankly they are as much a problem as a help themselves.

For a few days, there are repeat accuastions of some protestor groups as putschist, hell bent on escalating the movement, and in turn remove a few figures from their positions by accusing them as defeatists.

Obviously high internal tensions are not healthy for any kind of movement.

mainiac

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #151 on: October 03, 2014, 11:45:38 am »

It's very encouraging to see the restraint that HK protesters are showing.  The great discipline means that the government doesn't have a convenient excuse that lets them avoid the real issues.  You can't know if you are strong enough to beat the government but you can be strong enough to keep from beating yourselves.
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evilcherry

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #152 on: October 03, 2014, 12:28:34 pm »

It's very encouraging to see the restraint that HK protesters are showing.  The great discipline means that the government doesn't have a convenient excuse that lets them avoid the real issues.  You can't know if you are strong enough to beat the government but you can be strong enough to keep from beating yourselves.
Update: among the 2 people arrrested, 1 is a protester. No news on the other one.

There are numerous cases reported that while police do take away provocateurs, most of them were dropped off a block away. Police refuse to arrest provocateurs - in many cases they were seen assaulting protesters so there is no question that it do not warrant an arrest. In one particular case, a provocateur was led away by the police to the nearby MTR/subway station office, as he was seen attacking protesters. As protesters gathered outside the office to demand his arrest, a police officer unleashed pepper spray.

We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

mainiac

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #153 on: October 03, 2014, 01:54:57 pm »

We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Mr. Strange

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #154 on: October 03, 2014, 05:31:15 pm »

We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
But pictures will remain in the net...
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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #155 on: October 03, 2014, 08:25:53 pm »

We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
But pictures will remain in the net...
That's not new.  June 4, 1989: On this day, nothing happened.
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TamerVirus

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #156 on: October 06, 2014, 10:59:21 pm »

Ha! Made that joke already

The whole thing will be quashed and quickly expunged from public record

"On June 4th 1989, nothing of note happened today"
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smjjames

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #157 on: October 06, 2014, 11:28:13 pm »

Just the usual occasional skirmishing between the two koreas.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/10/north-south-korea-navy-boats-exchange-fire-201410715337358844.html

Also spotted this when going to google news to grab a source for the Korea skirmishing CNN mentioned about.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2014/10/07/25/0401000000AEN20141007002500315F.html

No idea if NK has done the 'Year of _____ will be the year of Korean unification' thing before.
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #158 on: October 08, 2014, 05:07:49 pm »

The tacit approval by the HK government of counter-protestor thugs is hardly surprising. It puts some fear into the protestors, and it gives the government clean hands to say "Okay, okay just look at the mess this has caused. Just go home and we'll schedule a meeting to talk about this."

The pro-Beijing talking points (Victor Gao must have been on half a dozen broadcasts I heard) have been mostly focusing on the paramount importance of rule of law, and how "yes, they have a right to protest. but they must obey the rule of law and protest in a legal manner!"

Which isn't as ridiculous as it sounds, and strikes me as a very Chinese response. And we really can't point fingers and laugh when we introduced "First Amendment Zones" for protests here in the West.

I'm really not sure where I come down in this whole mess. On the one hand, C.Y. Leung has done, by most accounts, a good job running Hong Kong the last couple of years, and he was (sort of*) democratically elected. However, he's seen as having uncomfortably strong ties to Beijing and being something of a (if you'll forgive the ironic metaphor) "Manchurian Candidate" for the mainland. And his daughter could give Paris Hilton a run for her money in the "vapid rich bitch" department.

The real crux of the protest comes down to the fact that the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (commonly just referred to as Chief Executive, or CE) isn't elected by the total electorate, but rather by a 1200-member Election Committee who are elected by the general public and designed such as to have members allocated from various economic and functional "constituencies" rather than geographic constituencies. So, for instance, there are 40 seats allocated to religious organizations, 40 to social welfare organizations, 554 to labor unions, 20 for medical professionals, 20 for higher education, etc. The proportion (and even total number) changes every five years.

It's actually a fascinating model of a parliamentary system, and it makes sense when geography isn't that big of a factor (HK being 7.2 million people crammed into an area smaller than New York City or London). There are still some geographical constituencies as well, but the predominant representation is functional. In some ways, it's taking special interests and embedding them as part of the governmental structure rather than just leaving it to lobbying.

But...the problem is that this was really only supposed to be a stopgap solution, and that part of the handover agreement between Britain and China was that HK would be allowed (indeed, encouraged) to move toward direct, universal suffrage. The problem is that the legal position of HK within the PRC means that it has to ask Beijing nicely for the permission to change its own laws, and the response from Beijing has typically been (not surprisingly), "let us study the issue for a few more years and not be hasty".

This isn't necessarily the broken promise it seems on the surface. Chinese leaders  (with the exception of Mao) have ALWAYS been terrified of rapid change, because it usually ends with Bad ThingsTM. Like millions dead because somebody didn't quite understand Christianity and used it to raise a rebel army. Or millions dead because collectivization and land reform failed. Or millions dead because you said "Gee, these egghead intellectuals are really pissing me off. I wish someone would fix that," and then your quasi-religious cultists go off and kill and "re-educate" your best and brightest.

Beijing likes using HK (and the Shenzhen region just across the water) as laboratories for economic reform, and they've had good successes there. I think they could be open to using them as a lab for political reform but it's far harder to stop the contagion -- if you will -- for political rather than economic changes.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2014, 08:18:31 pm by RedKing »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #159 on: October 18, 2014, 06:21:09 pm »


I dislike the direction it is heading... Hope that January 19 and February 20 will not arrive
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hermes

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #160 on: October 21, 2014, 11:09:05 pm »

PTW.  Nice post, RedKing.

Watched this video on Asian underwater warfare the other day.  Interesting info dump, mainly.
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evilcherry

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #161 on: October 25, 2014, 12:08:05 am »

Its basically an awful stalemate here.

Beijing don't want to be seen as weak internally and won't buckle easily;
Protesters basically get zero concessions and it would be politically impossible to actually disperse the crowd (and it looks exactly like Ukraine - the government is basically battle-hardening them)
The courts has ruled that continued occupation of streets is a contempt of court but as it suddenly becomes a civil matter so far no clearances can be made on this ground;
Of course there are clashes between protesters and anti-protesters - some of them are basically thugs, some of them got money from Beijing, and I can say some of them legitimately see their interests harmed so they decide to take action on their own hands. So far the police disproportionately favor them and tacitly they are allowed to carry on their battle of attrition (but not protesters - one dressing as captain america was quickly taken away as his shield is deemed to be some kind of weapon.

Oh and look at this. This banner was visible from both sides of harbour for a whole day.

This thing reads "I want universal suffrage".
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #162 on: November 13, 2014, 05:34:26 pm »

So, big agreement announced today between President Obama and President Xi Jinping.

The highlights:
  • China agrees to cap greenhouse emissions by 2030; US to reduce emissions by 27% of the 2005 levels by 2025.
  • Elimination of tariffs on 200 categories of IT products
  • Agreements on maritime right-of-way and military cooperation designed to head off potentially confrontational situations like fighter "buzzing"


The climate change one is a pretty big step for both sides. While it seems like China is giving up far less (by agreeing to an eventual cap rather than a reduction), it's a considerable step forward from their previous position, which was "we'll look at caps and reductions once we're emitting the same amount per capita as the US".

For reference, China now emits 26% of the world's greenhouse gases, and holds 19% of the world's population, a ratio of 1.37:1.
The United States emits 16% of the world's greenhouse gases, but houses just 4% of the global population, a ratio of 4:1.

If China had continued on a trajectory to wait until they were at a 4:1 ratio, they'd be emitting roughly the entire greenhouse emissions of the planet today BY THEMSELVES before they acted. At present rates, a 2030 cap would stop them at about a 2:1 ratio, assuming some levelling off towards the end of the growth curve. Which is still too high, but it's far better than the alternative.

This isn't pure altruism on Beijing's part. Beijing has been pushing green tech R&D and implementation for several years now. They realize that they're going to have to eventually anyways, and it's cheaper to build it in now than to build cheap, shitty infrastructure and replace it later. Unfortunately, Chinese energy demand is growing at such a rate that they frequently build the expensive, green energy AND the cheap, shitty coal plants both. I personally think one of their hopes is that they're going to hit the jackpot in R&D and design something workable in fusion, microwave and/or hydrogen and then simultaneously get rich selling that tech to the rest of the world.

Pollution isn't just a long-term issue for China, though climate change is a potentially devastating problem for them. The PRC's urbanization policies are envisioning 80% of the Chinese population living in one of the three megacity complexes by 2050, and all three of those are coastal. Sea level rises would be disastrous for Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Tianjin, and many other large cities. But even in the short-term, pollution levels have become flat-out toxic in some places like Beijing. It's no longer just a quality of life issue, it's a life expectancy issue.

I'll discuss the trade agreement next time I get a spot of time to write, and then the military one once I've had a chance to look over the details more.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #163 on: January 15, 2015, 07:38:25 am »

K-Pop vs Islamic conservatism since the bastards dared to be degenerates who do the disgusting and hug people. Oh such decadence! As an aside, it is a bit weird how one year I went back to Malaysia and everyone suddenly looked decidedly Korean Pop-y. That stuff is catchier than the flu.

And the Hong Kong protestors cannot into Hong Kong law and so must be ignored or else Hong Kong will devolve into anarchy.

Helgoland

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #164 on: January 15, 2015, 08:49:26 am »

So CO2 could be a viable weapon against China? Huh, never thought of it that way.
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