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Author Topic: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread  (Read 84862 times)

ibot66

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #75 on: May 17, 2014, 07:16:14 am »

My personal position on Taiwan is that they should be completely independant from PRC influence, or that they should control part of china.
Of course, I am a filthy American imperialist dog.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #76 on: May 17, 2014, 05:26:39 pm »

What is it about foreign chinese factories that makes them so torchable. Barely a day goes by without an oriental country flipping their shit because the PRC is pressing claims again. I hear the PM sent a mass text  message calling for peace, which is nice.

Sheb

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #77 on: May 18, 2014, 09:20:49 am »

-clip-

I don't worry too much about minority rights in the short term. India's courts are powerful and will prevent the Government from shafting non-hindus too much.

Why are you worried about its foreign policy?
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #78 on: May 19, 2014, 10:02:23 am »

What is it about foreign chinese factories that makes them so torchable. Barely a day goes by without an oriental country flipping their shit because the PRC is pressing claims again. I hear the PM sent a mass text  message calling for peace, which is nice.

China is becoming the America of East Asia. Which is to say, the overbearing imperialist pig-dog whose flag everybody loves to burn when they want somebody to blame. Yet another area where we're outsourcing. xD


@Sheb:
I would not be at all surprised to see things heat up over Jammu and Kashmir now that the BJP is in charge. And while relations with Pakistan aren't great to begin with, I think they'll sour even more. India's nuke program will probably get a shot in the arm, and I think you'll see more of a triangulation by India vis-a-vis China and the US. India wants to learn from China's boom, and sees them as more accomodating to leaving Indian domestic affairs out of trade deals. But they also have to balance that against long-standing border disputes and the potential for a Chinese blue-water navy to pose a threat to critical trade lanes. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indian Navy get a boost in funding and construction either. And their fledgling space program.

If Modi can succeed in kickstarting the Indian economy, I don't think you're going to see a lot of that reinvested in social programs and infrastructure but rather in "macho" national symbols like the military, nukes, and the space program.
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smjjames

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #79 on: May 19, 2014, 10:08:05 am »

Did the Vietnamese go and accidentially burn a while bunch of other countries flags? At least that's the joke that seems to be poked at on polandball.

Also, a bit earlier this morning, the Feds announced proof that China has been spying on and hacking US companies. Didn't listen to the details of it because I had to catch the trolley to class.
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #80 on: May 19, 2014, 10:18:29 am »

Did the Vietnamese go and accidentially burn a while bunch of other countries flags? At least that's the joke that seems to be poked at on polandball.

Also, a bit earlier this morning, the Feds announced proof that China has been spying on and hacking US companies. Didn't listen to the details of it because I had to catch the trolley to class.
They burned some other countries' factories. Because, y'know.....Chinese, Taiwanese, South Koreans.....they all look the same. >_>



And the bit about China spying and hacking US companies is like revealing proof that the sun is hot. That's been an open secret for several years now (and it goes both ways, as evidenced by the Snowden revelation about the NSA hacking into Huawei and installing backdoor code in the firmware of their routers).
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smjjames

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #81 on: May 19, 2014, 10:32:21 am »

I see it as more like them providing undeniable proof or something, politically anyway. And yes I know it goes both ways and China has accused us of hacking them before.
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #82 on: May 20, 2014, 10:24:08 am »

Thailand under martial law. I'll post more on this when I get a chance, but it's not a huge surprise. Thailand is one of those countries like Pakistan and Turkey that seems to perpetually go through cycles of political clusterfuck until the army steps in to call a timeout.
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majikero

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #83 on: May 20, 2014, 10:37:17 am »

Philippines issued urged an evacuation of OFWs because of lingering fear of Martial Law from the Marcos Administration. Comments from the news site says that they actually feel safer about it.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 10:41:18 am by majikero »
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #84 on: May 20, 2014, 11:25:34 am »

Okay, so here's the skinny on what's going on in Thailand:

Like so many countries, there's a political dispute which has polarized into two camps (conveniently color-coded):

-- The Red Shirts: Primarily rural and poor, looking for increased social spending, government reforms, and a stronger government and weaker monarchy. Worth noting here that Thailand is a constitutional monarchy where lese majeste is still a thing; i.e. you can go to jail for criticizing or disrespecting the King. (For all that, the King himself has said he needs to be criticized if he's wrong and seems like an all-around okay guy.)

-- The Yellow Shirts: Primarily middle-class urbanites, capitalist, pro-royalist, deeply suspicious (and with some good reason) of the recent government because of a history of corruption and nepotism.


Backstory:
In the mid 2000-s, a billionaire reformer named Thaksin Shinawatra became PM of Thailand, and his supporters became the Reds. While his land and economic reforms were wildly popular with the rural poor, they pissed off a lot of business interests in Thailand, which eventually led to a military ouster in 2006 and Thaksin going into self-imposed exile to avoid arrest on corruption charges. There was considerable unrest at the time as the Red supporters saw this as an illegal coup. His political party was also dissolved.

Despite this, candidates allied with the Red Shirts continued to win general elections, usually to have their candidates shortly thereafter found guilty of some crime or another (often on questionable grounds) by the Thai Constitutional Court and tossed out of office. (One was found guilty of "conflict of interest" because he was the host of a popular TV cooking show.)

In 2008, the Democrat Party (the main Yellow Shirt party) was actually able to form a coalition government. By early 2009, the Red Shirts were out on the streets in force, arguing that the Yellows had essentially abused their control of the Constitutional Court (which is supposed to be non-partisan, like the US Supreme Court) to invalidate democratic elections until they could get a result they wanted. In 2010, these protests took an ugly turn when a firefight actually broke out between Thai Army units during an attempt to clear a protest. 87 were killed and 1300+ wounded.

In 2011, a Red Shirt-allied party won and the new PM was Yingluck Shinawatra -- the younger sister of deposed ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

In late 2013, a former deputy PM from the 2008 Yellow Shirt government started publicly calling for an end to "the Thaksin regime" and encouraging street protests. At the same time, Yingluck's government attempted to pass a blanket amnesty for all people who had been charged with crimes relating to the 2010 unrest. This was amended at the last minutes to include *all* political crimes, including her brother's 2006 corruption charges. Many thought this was just clearing the way for him to return to the country and run for election again (which many Yellow Shirts saw/see as hopelessly rigged), and the protests ballooned.

The Yellow Shirts began demanding that the government be dissolved, and replaced with an unelected "People's Council", stating that elections could not be trusted because the Shinawatra family's influence was so pervasive in the Thai political system (except, it would seem, for the Constitutional Court). In response, Yingluck dissolved Parliament in February and stated there would be new elections.

On May 7th, the Constitutional Court ruled that Yingluck had abused her power by replacing a high-level official with Thaksin Shinawatra's brother-in-law and would have to step down as President. The Red Shirts saw this as yet another "judicial coup" and took to the streets even as the Yellow Shirts were on the streets demanding that the entire damn government be dissolved and replaced with this unelected body.

Unrest escalated into violence over a couple of weeks until finally last night, the Thai Army decided to institute martial law (without informing the government, apparently) to put a halt to things.




So....yeah. Thailand is a bit of a basket case politically. Both sides have some legitimacy to their complaints, and yet both sides obviously have some egregious abuses of power to answer for.
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Sheb

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #85 on: May 20, 2014, 11:43:42 am »



In 2008, after loosing the elections by 233 seats to 165 , the Democrat Party (the main Yellow Shirt party) was actually able to form a coalition government since the Constitutional Court had removed the red PM for hosting a cooking show, banned his party and removed all his MPs from office.

FTFY

I'm strongly pro-Red on this issue (I actually got red t-shirts I bought at the 2009 protests lying somewhere :p). Shinawatra was a corrupt son of a bitch, but for better or worse he was one of the first to listen to the majority of Thai population rather than cater to the Bangkok elite. The results shows: time and time again the reds, in one form or another, have won elections. Now, Yingluck Shinawatra did some things that weren't politically sound (the amnesty should have been dropped for now, and her rice-buying scheme was a big mess), but she still represent the people. The Yellows don't. 
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Helgoland

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #86 on: May 20, 2014, 11:45:45 am »

PTW. Beware of the Chavez effect, Sheb - but then again, I know next to nothing about Thailand.
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majikero

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #87 on: May 20, 2014, 11:49:20 am »

Why is the Army the sensible one here? Also, who does the king support?
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #88 on: May 20, 2014, 11:54:06 am »

Yeah, I don't really know enough to have a dog in the fight. Like I said, it seems like both sides have shot themselves in the foot so many times that nobody has a moral high ground. And as Helgoland points out, just because you're incredibly popular with the majority doesn't make you right or mean you're not corrupt or trampling on others' rights.

Or to make a historical analogy, the European liberals in the 1848 waves of revolution were solidly outnumbered by the rural royalist population and outgunned by the aristocratic elites who controlled the governments and armies (which is the main reason the revolutions failed). You can argue that they were speaking for their own narrow interests rather than their kingdom/duchy/principate as a whole.


I really do think the comparison to Turkey and Pakistan is a valid one. In both those countries, civil politics has often been a contest of "Who Wants To Pillage The Treasury Next?" and some of the best governance has been by the army (although not without its own problems, especially human rights abuses). I don't see the Thai Army hanging around or appointing a general as President, though.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 11:56:09 am by RedKing »
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Sheb

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #89 on: May 20, 2014, 11:55:10 am »

Not sure what you mean about the Chavez effect. That  a majority at the polls excuse bad comportment? The thing is, by and large what Shinawatra did was pretty cool. Stuff like the 50-baht scheme (universal healthcare basically) for example. And AFAIK, his governing has been pretty much free from the kind of heavy-handed repression Chavez did.

Majikero: Who said the army was sensible? As for the King, it's bizarre. Everyone loves him, or at least pretends to. Everyone also says the other camp doesn't like him (Both the Reds and Yellows have lèse majesté lawsuits against the other camp).

Now, the King is supposed to be neutral, to the point that his official color switched from yellow to pink after the yellow shirt decided to drape themselves in his color. However, the royal establishment is siding with the yellows. The King is also reverred, but very old, and no one really like his son, so it'll be a clusterfuck when he dies.
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