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[majikero]

So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?

[nenjin]

This insult to the Superior and Sovereign Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Most Wise Juche philosophy proscribed by Eternal President Kim Il-Sung and all of his descendents shall not go unpunished, American pig dog traitor RedKing.

And now we have precedent for Regional Political Threads making war on each other.

Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning.

[misko27]

This insult to the Superior and Sovereign Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Most Wise Juche philosophy proscribed by Eternal President Kim Il-Sung and all of his descendents shall not go unpunished, American pig dog traitor RedKing.

And now we have precedent for Regional Politic Threads making war on each other.

Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning.

*cough*Europe*cough*.

[smjjames]

So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?

I say make the territory split the islands in half.

In all seriousness, it seems like we are pretty much staying out of the argument and only intervening when things get heated to tell people to cool off.

[RedKing]

So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?

AhahahahahaaahaaaaaNO.

Honestly, I don't know that there *is* a way to deal with it, short of some kind of omnipotent world power just deciding who gets them. And even then, the losers won't accept that verdict.

China and Vietnam have the best historical claim to them. Japan and Taiwan have de facto claims based on occupation of them in WWII and post-Chinese Civil War, respectively. The Philippine claim on them is fairly recent and based mostly on two events:

1. In 1956, a Filipino businessman built a settlement there and proclaimed the Free State of Freedomland. (seriously, that was the name).
2. In 1999, the Philippine Navy ran a ship aground near one of the islands and has stationed troops onboard for the last 15 years.

Really, the Spratleys are sort of a case study in competing lunacy, as each nation seems to try to outdo the others in audacious bullshit tactics to fabricate a claim.


@Tiruin: I'd say the Phillippines are fair game for the thread. I'd consider that Southeast Asia.




As to China's instability....here's the thing. China in its current polity form is still relatively young (less than 70 years). China as a civilization has been around since before the Pyramids.

At the same time, I've heard it said that Mao's greatest accomplishment was getting the Chinese to believe in the idea of China. Even if it's not in the form he wanted, Chinese today believe in the concept of a unified China in a way that no previous generation has. There are still the regional differences, the stereotypes, the yawning gap between rich and poor, the divide between reformists and nationalists, etc. But prior to Mao, China would have fallen apart in a heartbeat. Hell, it pretty much did immediately after becoming a country under Sun Yat-sen.

There's still a significant chance that China could revert back to its inter-dynastic habits and splinter into several successor states if the Chinese Communist Party were to lose control. But my gut instinct says it won't. China as an idea has become bigger than the CCP.

But....the problem is that I'm not sure what would replace the CCP. I don't see democracy as a viable option for China. It's just too damn big. I think the United States shows how democracy begins to fray when you combine a very large population and stratified wealth. (I think India shows how it just comes apart at the seams when you have a HUGE population and massively stratified wealth).

[mainiac]

Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning.

Dont worry, I'll just organize the American couch forces expedition thread and to liberate any oppressed threads and make their cultures boring.

[smjjames]

Maybe a federation of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) states? Then again, I doubt it would work any better than the EU.

Still though, other than the areas with large numbers of minorities and Tibet (which would undoubtly spring to independence), I don't see China easily splitting into autonomous states. The culture variation between someone in Shanghai and far southern (or maybe northern) China or someone from western China vs eastern China (not all the way to Tibet) isn't as great as going across Europe, but it's far from homogenous.

Then again RedKing would have greatly more experience on the cultures of China than I do. And yes I'm aware of the regional language differences like Cantonese vs Mandarin.

[RedKing]

Yeah, linguistic differences would be the primary cleavage plane, followed by broad cultural groupings into four categories:

1. South China (centered around Guangdong)
2. East China (centered around Shanghai)
3. North China ("centered" around Beijing, even if not geographically)
4. West China (centered around Chongqing)

It's a testament to Mao that the differences between these aren't big enough to really envision a breakup along those lines. In a lot of ways, he was like a second Qin Shi Huang Di (the First Emperor) -- an iron-fisted bastard who nonetheless did have a profound and potentially positive long-term impact on China (along with with all the incredibly deleterious short-term impacts).


But even with all that Mao did to centralize power in China, it's impossible to rule a country that big and that full of people without massive amounts of delegation. There's a joke that the first three Chinese inventions were fire, cultivated rice, and bureaucracy. (Another version says "ink, paper and paperwork").

There is somewhere around one government official for every 100 citizens in China. In a country of over 1 billion.

Let that sink in for a minute.
 
The government of the PRC is larger than the entire population of Belgium. Because of that, power is incredibly diluted. For all the rhetoric in the West of its being an oppressive, totalitarian system it's actually damn near impossible for the government to get things done sometimes. If it's oppressive, it's more in the Kafka-esque sense than the menace of an Orwellian Big Brother. Yes, if you are deemed a "threat to the state", they have immense power they can bring to bear. But in the notion of constantly monitoring for "thoughtcrimes"....well, the Great Firewall gets bypassed by tens of millions of Chinese on a daily basis. The CCP knows this. But what can they do? Arrest everyone in the country who knows how to use a proxy server? (which is quite a lot of young people).

Honestly, they don't give a shit. You want to surf porn? Knock yourself out.
Look up forbidden subjects on Wikipedia? Whatever.
Write forum posts discussing these topics with other Chinese? NOW they have a problem.
Start printing and distributing leaflets about Tienanmen/Falun Gong/Tibetan independence/government corruption/etc? Say hello to your new friends from the PSB.

Knowledge doesn't bother them. It's people acting on that knowledge and organizing into groups that bothers them. And with good reason. China has been overthrown by revolutionary movements somewhere around 14 times since 221BC. And that's only counting the successful ones. When you add in the major rebellions that failed (Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Rebellion, Yellow Turban Rebellion, An Lushan Rebellion etc.) it's probably more like 40-50 attempts. And every time there's a major rebellion, millions die. The Taiping Rebellion alone, by some estimates, was deadlier than all casualties in WWI combined. It's with that in mind that EVERY dynasty, including the Communist era, governs with the preservation of order and stability as their paramount goal. The problem is that in achieving that, they stagnated innovation and development for centuries. The 20th century saw them play catch-up in a big way, but at a huge cost.

The big question now is how much they can continue to develop forward economically and technologically before order and stability are in serious jeopardy (some would say it already is).
And second, how will the governing authorities react to that? By reforms and trying to "soft land" the country into a slower, sustainable track of development? By throwing on the brakes and implementing stagnation again? Or by racing forward even more and accelerating the collapse?

[Sheb]

Would democracy be that bad? If we imagine a 'devo max' scenarion, what does it matter if the central government is an impotent clusterfuck, if the regional governments are actually doing the job?

[RedKing]

The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

This is one reason why the corrupt local magistrate/governor is a stock villain in Chinese cinema. There's a deeply ingrained notion that "if the Emperor/President/Premier/etc. just knew the real story, they'd save us!"

To some extent, this is quite true. To another extent, this notion is encouraged by the central government because it provides a convenient scapegoat when shit goes wrong. Which leads to a vicious cycle wherein local governments do anything they can to cover up malfeasance, including murder.

[Sheb]

But surely democratic local government could fix that issue?

[Owlbread]

Posting to advocate the independence of Kukiland.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[mainiac]

The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

Remember the time a local government in south china just killed off millions of dogs, including pets, after like 3 people died of rabies?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

But surely democratic local government could fix that issue?

The idea that China pushes is that the local governments are democratic, within a one-party system. Which is of course almost complete bullshit, but you do sometimes have local people formally running as CCP who do represent the people and have a democratic mandate, just not often.

[Sheb]

Yeah, for local, but I was thinking more about provincial government actually.