Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

0 (0%)

So yeah.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[mainiac]

What part of the Crimean referendum did you not notice? The part where it had 95% voting yes (questionable at best), or the part where unmarked Russian troops were already on the ground before the vote? What makes you think a referendum in Donetsk would be any different?

The part where Russian troops don't have control of the territory?  Pretty big and obvious difference.  This was what I meant when I said "Russians can't rig a referendum they don't control."

Mm, disagree here. NATO wouldn't do crap militarily. Ukraine isn't part of NATO. Therefore, since it's not on the table, it doesn't worry Putin. What he is worried about is A. The /actual/ sanctions that would follow an invasion and B. The collateral PR damage said sanctions and Ukrainian land war would cause at home.

Pretty sure you are just being a kneejerk cynic.

If what you said were true then Putin would have already invaded Ukraine when he first had the opportunity a month ago.

[vagel7]

It is much easier and safer to just play it on as separatist groups. For example for NATO member countries, article 5 covers pretty much only foreign threat. It can be interpreted in many ways. So the strategy that Putin used in Crimea could theoretically be also used on a smaller NATO nation.

If NATO leadership would like to sneak away from applying article 5, they could do so under the faux-separatist strategy that Putin is using. However this would pretty much destroy any kind of legitimacy that NATO has, since defending it's member states is one of it's goals.

[mainiac]

NATO doesn't give a crap about the letter of the law of it's charter.  It did extensive counter-insurgency work in NATO nations during the cold war.

[RedKing]

What part of the Crimean referendum did you not notice? The part where it had 95% voting yes (questionable at best), or the part where unmarked Russian troops were already on the ground before the vote? What makes you think a referendum in Donetsk would be any different?

The part where Russian troops don't have control of the territory?  Pretty big and obvious difference.  This was what I meant when I said "Russians can't rig a referendum they don't control."

Oh, they won't hold the referendum until Russian forces or pro-Russian "self-defense forces" have sufficient control. That's the whole point. They've already established the playbook, now it's just going through the motions.

If the Ukrainian authorities continue to allow the separatists a free hand, they'll usurp more and more local control.
If they move in to crush them, they give Putin the excuse he needs.

It's a no-win situation. The possible third option is that locals form their own loyalist militias to counter the seperatists, but that's just as bad because then you really do have an argument that the situation is spiraling into civil war, and innocent ethnic Russians in the area *are* likely to get caught in the crossfire. 

[mainiac]

Oh, they won't hold the referendum until Russian forces or pro-Russian "self-defense forces" have sufficient control. That's the whole point. They've already established the playbook, now it's just going through the motions.

And how are they going to get sufficient control without first moving troops in.  There's a hole in the bucket here.

If the Ukrainian authorities continue to allow the separatists a free hand, they'll usurp more and more local control.
If they move in to crush them, they give Putin the excuse he needs.

The Ukrainian government isn't just rolling over.  There is a middle ground between the Israeli strategy of burn them out with white phosphorus and rolling over.  They can take a week or a month, the separatists aren't going anywhere.

[smjjames]

Sounds like everything plays into Putins hands, at least from his point of view.

If Kiev stays its hand, you see another highly suspect "referendum" and the region follows the lead of Crimea into Russia's waiting arms.

The Russians can't rig an election they don't control.

What part of the Crimean referendum did you not notice? The part where it had 95% voting yes (questionable at best), or the part where unmarked Russian troops were already on the ground before the vote? What makes you think a referendum in Donetsk would be any different?


Let's see....I said this over a month ago:
http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=135758.msg5109194#msg5109194

Expect pro-Russian demonstrations to magically erupt around Donetsk and Kharkhov, possibly leading to more "totally grassroots, we swear we're not involved" referendums in those regions similar to Crimea. Or, things go uglier and there's some civil unrest/rioting in those regions and some Russians/pro-Russian Ukrainians killed, giving Putin a tenuous casus belli to send in Russian troops to restore peace and order.

And expect more finger-wagging and sanctions from the West, but no real teeth.

Gee, I should have picked lottery numbers while I was at it.

True, they can't rig the election as a whole, but what they CAN do, or try to do, is influence things in eastern Ukraine, maybe do some ballot stuffing while they were at it.

A while ago, someone said that the eastern Ukraine regions that are pro-Russian were going to try and sabotage the vote by completely abstaining. Like not even giving vote numbers and thus not give the electoral votes (or however it works in Ukraine), which would make the candidates not have enough to win.

I can see it backfiring in that the government could very well just say 'Okay, we'll just remove your numbers from the total so that yours don't add to the total'

[smjjames]

CNN just said something about jets scrambling at Russian bombers or something, which was convinently said right before commercial break.

I'll see if I can google something.

Edit:

It was probably this: http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/apr/23/raf-fighter-jets-russian-bombers-scotland

[Xeron]

Now Europe is united. Too bad Ukraine was still outside, but at least Poland and Romania didn't decide to annex part of Ukraine this time.

Excuse me, but when did Romania annex Ukrainian territory ?

[mainiac]

True, they can't rig the election as a whole, but what they CAN do, or try to do, is influence things in eastern Ukraine, maybe do some ballot stuffing while they were at it.

Yeah I'm sure the Ukrainian government will just sit back and let them do it too.  I'm sure it will do great things for their diplomatic position when Russian agents are caught trying to stuff ballot boxes.

[Helgoland]

Remember, oh, Crimea?

[mainiac]

Remember, oh, Crimea?

Crimea where they controlled the territory and the Ukrainian government did not?

It's fun when conversations move in tiny circles.

[Knit tie]

Please, gentlemen, be civil. We are all wishing for the greater good here.

[misko27]

Going to side with mainiac here. It's just not feasible for Russia to invade, nor is it to take over any time soon. Russia wants long-term stuff. It's not taking Ukraine, although short-term chaos is nice. What it wants is for the western powers to try to stabilize the situation by giving Russia some of what it wants, which it will use to keep under it's influence either parts or the whole of Ukraine.

And Crimea was being run by the Russian Military. Even assuming literally every single report is true and basically the entire separatist movement is Russian military, they simply do not have the control. It would be like the Taliban trying to run an election in Afghanistan rather then being the disrupters. Plus, and this is useful to note, Russia has not actually recognized the authority of any of the groups. Russia considered the Crimean parliament a legitimate body to decide (whether that was strictly true or not), and indeed it was the parliament (whether forced or not) who started the annexation, it just needed a referendum to make it legal. You cannot even pretend there is a legal basis for this, and the Russians haven't.

And I know, the usual arguments are "But that doesn't matter!" It does to Russia.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

TOKYO (AP) — President Barack Obama says new sanctions targeting Russia are, quote, "teed up." But he says the United States needs support from allies to make the sanctions work and says he is working to build such backing.

Khm... We shall see. I am rather dubious that large-scale sanctions from EU are possible in situation like the current one

[LordSlowpoke]

i can see how the us can say "well we'll just sanction russia" while the eu who's already being fucked over by both gas and oil prices isn't exactly inclined to follow them

good luck, either way