Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

Until I figure out how to un-close it, at least.

0 (0%)

So yeah.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 0

Voting closed: May 01, 2014, 02:06:40 pm

[Xeron]

Xeron, Romania is fairly down on the list of places Putin might invade. For starter it's in NATO. And even if he want to attack NATO, the Baltic states are a much better target.

As i said before,i highly distrust the West to take direct actions against Russia, no matter what Romania is part of

[Ukrainian Ranger]

URL, to be fair, you have been predicting "invasion tomorrow" for quite a while now, and it still hasn't happened.

But really, do you believe that the new government will be less corrupt, or do you thing that another Yanukovich will rise and run your country like a private palace for his clique all over again?

I am a bit pessimistic and I am not predictiong - invasion tommorow. I am saying - very likely. And very here may be as low as 5%... Event is too unpleasant to not view that as unacceptably high probability. Besides when the man who I respect a lot (Saakashvili) says in his twitter that invasion may happen soon, I am becoming worried and too emotional

As for another Yanukovitch... You see... The main change of the revolution is not new faces in the government, main change is that people know now - you can't change a country for better by throwing a piece of a paper into a box once per few years. Government should be under constant control. That what is democracy, not elections

[Guardian G.I.]

-snop-

Our dear democratic opposition wrote very similar appeals to USA in the late 1990s and early 2000s. They stopped doing that for some reason, probably because such appeals discredited them better than any state propaganda.

Yeah, but he's running out of non-NATO country to invade. :p Although Kazakhstan is apparently getting nervous and accelerating its policy of "Kazakhing" the north of the country.

Kazakhstan is a Russian ally (the Eurasian Union idea was originally created by Nursultan Nazarbayev in the 1990s, by the way, and not by Putin). Unless pro-Western Kazakh nationalists show up and somehow manage to overthrow Nazarbayev, there's no reason whatsoever for Russia to send its troops there. Same thing goes for Belarus.

[Sheb]

Yeah, or until Nazarbayev decide his interests do not coincide with Putin's anymore.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Hmm, need to make a plan to GTFO, since i doubt Putin will just stop.

Well, there are one map that I think is logical, because it allows to get most of Ukrainian defense industry, full control over Northern Black sea coast and getting majority of ethnic Russians in Russia, ability for an easy annexation of Transinstria and position to destabilize Moldova further

Spoiler: What Russia needs in Ukraine (click to show/hide)

So Russian-Romanian border may become a reality, soon
And I don't think that Putin will stop, too. He is megalomaniac with ambitions to restore the mighty Russia of the past. One may say I am irrational here but I have zero doubts that it is true

[GrizzlyAdamz]

The gas pipes are still unaccounted for in the invasion equation. He won't invade Ukraine proper unless A. Europe boycotts Russian gas or B. Putin thinks he can make another land grab without Ukraine detonating the pipes.

A is unthinkable since the Allies almost certainly know it.
B is unlikely because Ukraine probably knows it and is likely throwing out the correct signals, (like the 'INVASION IMMINENT' comments from politicians- they aren't distinguishing a Russian invasion of the south or east from a total Russian invasion, unlike with crimea).

[Sheb]

Well, does anyone got data on how much gas can reach Europe bypassing Ukraine, now that North Stream is a thing?

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Hmm, some googling...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/gas_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=vt3

Looks like it could handle 25% of total exports, or 40% of their total exports to non-CIS countries.

[XXSockXX]

Hmm, some googling...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/gas_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=vt3

Looks like it could handle 25% of total exports, or 40% of their total exports to non-CIS countries.

It's probably even more, because there are more pipelines. This is pretty outdated already (from 2007, before North Stream was build):

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Actually this looks like blowing up pipelines in Ukraine wouldn't do all that much overall damage.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

No, apparently there are more and larger pipes in Ukraine than everywhere else. According to wikipedia, (which features that picture), 80% of the gas which the EU consumes passes over Ukrainian soil.

[XXSockXX]

No, apparently there are more and larger pipes in Ukraine than everywhere else. According to wikipedia, (which features that picture), 80% of the gas which the EU consumes passes over Ukrainian soil.

Sure, but they would have to blow up all the different pipelines to interrupt the flow and there still would be some that don't pass Ukraine.
Blowing up pipelines seems like such a desperate last measure, I don't think that's likely. Ukraine needs gas too, so they aren't going to do that lightly.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

They'd have to be monumentally incompetent to be sitting on their laurels while Russia parks itself on their border and solidifies it's hold on crimea. It doesn't take much to mine pipelines in your own territory- it takes a lot to secure them in an invasion.

I'm saying it's their 'nuclear' option- it's a deterrence against further Russian aggression.
And they'd have to show Russia their trigger finger is itchy if they don't want another 'limited' invasion of the south or east as UR was hypothesizing.

[Sergarr]

Actually I think the Russia will invade next... the North pole.

They were speaking about how "it naturally belongs to Russia" last few years.

[Sean Mirrsen]

Actually I think the Russia will invade next... the North pole.

They were speaking about how "it naturally belongs to Russia" last few years.

Not sure I ever heard of the "naturally belongs to" bit, but I do suppose we've got the biggest claim on any natural resources in the Arctic Shelf (more accurately called the Russian Continental Shelf, because it totally is), so yes, "invading" the North Pole could quite well be in the nearest-future plans.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

(also, belated PTW)

[Sheb]

Yeah, although the whole geological shelf thing is disputed in itself.