Obviously newbies (<2 missions) should get a smaller multiplier and veterans (>~6 missions) a larger. But you have to bet either before the mission starts or at least before any serious action or death occurs.
How about 3x standard, 2x for newbies, 5x for veterans? With something like x2 for betting a low number of deaths (<3 deaths) and x5 for higher (>2 deaths)?
Honestly, given how random and unpredictable the nature of missions is, I believe that multiplier should be quite high for guessing. Perhaps up to (N-1)x for guessing the first death, where N is the number of characters on the mission (or, say, N/2 rounded up, or something similarly large).
I don't understand, do you suggest lower death multipliers for betting on newbie death, or for newbies betting in this game? First approach seems nice, but, perhaps, should scale with mission team size, as above.
As for number of deaths, not sure, as missions can be quite deadly. I'd rather reward being more precise, such as N/2 for guessing the exact amount of deaths, N/3 for guessing within margin of one, etc.
Betting on injuries can be done in similar manner.
There is also the traditional prohibition of betting on 'no deaths', which we should probably keep for the sake of tradition.
Finally, I think there should be allowed betting on specific health status of particular characters, with the obvious exclusion of 'uninjured'. Perhaps, N/3 for winning a specific bet (loses both his legs, gets her brain squashed => permadeath, etc.) and N/4 for a more loose one (dies revivably, loses a limb, etc.).
What do you say?
@Tiruin Welcome back!
Well, there supposed to be something supernatural of the name 'Eater of Cold' which you are to investigate, so I would suggest treating it as a standard HMRC mission of going to hazardous somewhere, dealing with it (being armed slightly suggested, but not exactly heavily required, just a couple of characters would be enough), capturing something glowing and useful, and getting out of there in one piece. Like M1, M3, M6, etc.
Oh, and if thinking of armor, buying a protectorate suit (10 tokens, as I asked a few years ago) might be a better idea, as it is cheaper, equally protective, and would not slow you down like full Milno-plate.