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[smjjames]

My reaction towards all the language debate the last few pages: Come on, just embrace multiple languages the way the US does!

Heh...  You are mixing owning and controlling here

De facto Crimea is controlled by Russia, nothing more and nothing less. It is not a part of Russia.

It is not a part of Russia for business, because if any company to have any business activity in Crimea it should ask the government in Kyiv for license and pay taxes to Ukrainian budget or it will be sued in international courts
It is not a part of Russia for any visitors because anyone entering Crimea breaks Ukrainian border control laws and has a full right to arrest and jail that person as soon as possible.

Sucks for the Crimean economy, right? Also tourists since it's a tourism based economy.

Also, I'd call Russias actions to be of hostile intent, even if they pretty much just stepped out of their bases and no shots were fired.

[Sean Mirrsen]

Heh...  You are mixing owning and controlling here

De facto Crimea is controlled by Russia, nothing more and nothing less. It is not a part of Russia.

It is not a part of Russia for business, because if any company to have any business activity in Crimea it should ask the government in Kyiv for license and pay taxes to Ukrainian budget or it will be sued in international courts
It is not a part of Russia for any visitors because anyone entering Crimea breaks Ukrainian border control laws and has a full right to arrest and jail that person as soon as possible.

Except within Russia there is no such thing. For dealings within Russia, or through Russia, both companies and visitors don't have to cross any border, except the inter-regional "border" that is not enforced by anyone who has the authority to arrest them. Crimea is a disputed part of Ukraine only when it comes to dealings, and comings and goings, with anywhere that is not Russia. Legally, any businesses operating in Crimea were freed from responsibility after Crimea declared its independence - if the declaration of independence is deemed illegal, that's a matter that will be taken up with the governing body of Crimea - and Russia, by extension. Businesses will not stop operating just because they are no longer in the same country, and they will not continue to pay taxes to the country they are no longer in. By that logic, you could right now sue every business still operating in Crimea, and every person still living there. Likewise, anyone traveling into Crimea from Russia is not crossing international borders, according to Russian law, and unless there is a Ukrainian customs checkpoint on entry, the person never legally enters the territory of Ukraine. As long as Crimea remains de facto a part of Russia, and is de jure accepted by Russia, citizens of Russia have full access to it.

[mainiac]

The general gist of any sanctions would also be fairly apparent to proficient economists - Europe can't just up and close off its own metaphorical oxygen supply, so the primary method that would have been effective - refusing to buy Russian hydrocarbons - is plainly not feasible in any sort of short term.

100% wrong.  The cost of undoing all the "progress" Russia's economy has made since the 90s would be less then the cost of maintaining European militaries for a year.  And Russia can not physically sell to someone else due to existing infrastructures while Europe is capable of rapidly changing it's energy use.  Europes economy is way bigger then Russias and Russia is a poster child for the Dutch Disease where natural resource exports destroy the competativeness of other industries.  Worse yet the Russian government has compounded the problem through subsidies of inefficient industries.

The reason why Europe wont do a major reduction in purchases of natural gas is because Russia hasn't pissed them off enough for them to accept the expense and overcome the status quo bias, not because they can't.

[XXSockXX]

The reason why Europe wont do a major reduction in purchases of natural gas is because Russia hasn't pissed them off enough for them to accept the expense and overcome the status quo bias, not because they can't.

It would hurt a lot economically to stop buying gas from Russia right now. Even during the Cold War Europe bought gas from Russia. However Europe is probably going to try become less dependent on Russian energy in the long term, that's been stated by a lot of politicians lately.

Anyway, I was gonna make an April Fools joke about Germany reintroducing conscription with Merkel giving a Churchill-style speech... But naah.

It's not as dramatic yet of course, but there are a lot of voices demanding Germany reintroduce conscription now, because of the recruiting issues.

Overall, no matter how this will be resolved, the new Crimea crisis will lead to lots of strategic shifts in many ways.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

For dealings within Russia, or through Russia, both companies and visitors don't have to cross any border, except the inter-regional "border"

You don't  understand.. That companies will pay fines to Ukraine for acting like that. At the very least doing business both in Crimea and unoccupied  Ukraine will be very problematic.

Same for for tourists, Even Russian tourists. Yes, we can't hope for extradition form Russia but should that tourist enter Ukraine later we have full right to arrest him for breaking our laws.

Legally, any businesses operating in Crimea were freed from responsibility after Crimea declared its independence

By international and Ukrainian laws that declaration of independence  is illegal and has no power. Many, many countries said that.

By that logic, you could right now sue every business still operating in Crimea, and every person still living there.

In fact yes. That is likely will not be done for essential services. Exactly for the same reasons why we keep suppling electricity.
And yes, technically, each and every person in Crimea is breaking many Ukrainian laws following directives of illegal government. But as many of them are forced to do that we can't announce that they all are criminals

Likewise, anyone traveling into Crimea from Russia is not crossing international borders, according to Russian law, and unless there is a Ukrainian customs checkpoint on entry, the person never legally enters the territory of Ukraine.

Yes. The person never legally enters the territory of Ukraine. He enters illegally.   As I said earlier Ukraine has little to no options to get this criminals out from Russia or occupied Crimea... But that doesn't change the fact that Ukraine has a right to arrest them

[smjjames]

Legally, any businesses operating in Crimea were freed from responsibility after Crimea declared its independence

By international and Ukrainian laws that declaration of independence  is illegal and has no power. Many, many countries said that.

Nearly the entire United Nations don't recognize it I believe. And yeah, 95% is ridiculous because 95% of WHICH population? Sevastopol? A random Crimean town? The most it could plausibly have been for Crimea is 70%, but had Russia not invaded and the vote been 65%, I bet a lot more countries would be willing to accept it.

Putin really shot himself in the foot with an unrealistic rigged vote.

[Knit tie]

Putin has a fetish for rigged elections.

[Owlbread]

I'd be surprised if they didn't count the occupying soldiers' votes. That's what they did in Chechnya - after the capital fell and the Chechen government retreated into the mountains, the Russian government held a referendum on whether they wanted to become an "autonomous republic" within Russia. The vote was criticised because thousands of invading soldiers' votes were counted, despite Chechnya only having a population of around 500,000, many of whom were still fighting against Russia.

That's like the England invading Scotland, overthrowing the Scottish government then holding a referendum and allowing the English soldiers to vote.

[smjjames]

I'd be surprised if they didn't count the occupying soldiers' votes. That's what they did in Chechnya - after the capital fell and the Chechen government retreated into the mountains, the Russian government held a referendum on whether they wanted to become an "autonomous republic" within Russia. The vote was criticised because thousands of invading soldiers' votes were counted, despite Chechnya only having a population of around 500,000, many of whom were still fighting against Russia.

That's like the England invading Scotland, overthrowing the Scottish government then holding a referendum and allowing the English soldiers to vote.

I bet 95% of those soldiers don't even have Ukranian citizenship in the first place.

Maybe Russia needs a taste of their own medicine, har har har. Have NATO troops invade Moscow and then force-vote Moscow independent of Russia.

[Knit tie]

As I said, Putin has a fetish for rigged elections.

[mainiac]

It would hurt a lot economically to stop buying gas from Russia right now. Even during the Cold War Europe bought gas from Russia. However Europe is probably going to try become less dependent on Russian energy in the long term, that's been stated by a lot of politicians lately.

Yes it would hurt but 1) the damage would be larger in Russia then Europe 2) Europe has a much bigger economy to take up the slack.

Fuel exports to Europe are 15% of all Russian economic activity.  But Russian energy is only 25% of just the fuel sector in Europe.  The natural gas that is the lifeblood of the Russian economy accounts for just 5% of European electrical production.

If Europe was willing to absorb some costs they could squash Russia like a bug.  Russia's economy is almost tailor designed to be vulnerable to sanctions.  European politicians aren't eager to take that step but it's a very credible possibility in the new future.  When people are talking about the possibility of major armed conflict seriously a 5% substitution of electricity with higher cost alternatives doesn't sound too bad, does it?  In fact from an economic standpoint Europe would be doing itself a favor by stimulating it's depressed economy with new energy investments.

[smjjames]

So, you Russians should fight fire with fire so to speak and rig an election to get him out.

Yes I know he could just cry foul, but you could also point out his hypocricy, but then again, using election rigging to get him out of office might lead to a slippery slope.

@maniac: There are talks of the US supporting some of the energy needs, so theres that.

[Sergarr]

Fun (and inaccurate - isn't there a peninsula the author forgot?) as that is, I find this rather more entertaining.

I love how Russians treat Crimea as Russian territory with almost no countries recognizing it. Who cares about that international laws?
That map is a joke. Finland will not double it's territory and Ukraine will not try to annex South-Western Russia no matter what will happen

As for Russia breaking apart. That will happen. Not in the way like on the map, but it will.  Any large country that gives zero rights to regions is doomed as soon as any large crisis will arrive.  USSR in 1980s looked like a monolith but... Russian empire is convulsing. In that convulsion it may even start a nuclear apocalypse but that will not change it's fate.

We survived more than 300 years of near-occupation under Mongol control, in which thousands of Russian people were killed or brought into slavery countless invasions by foreign forces, including the both World Wars, the Civil War, the loss of ruling dynasty in 1612 (in which year the Russian throne was almost occupied by Poland, but the militia driven them out). You don't know what pain is. This is nothing. The Russian will is unbreakable.

[smjjames]

the loss of ruling dynasty in 1612 (in which year the Russian throne was almost occupied by Poland, but the militia driven them out)

Is that the one where you burned the Polish pretender, stuffed his ashes (or maybe his corpse) into a cannon and shot the cannon towards Poland? I've heard of that.

[XXSockXX]

European politicians aren't eager to take that step but it's a very credible possibility in the new future.  When people are talking about the possibility of major armed conflict seriously a 5% substitution of electricity with higher cost alternatives doesn't sound too bad, does it?

Gas is mostly used for heating, not electricity, also as fuel and in some industries. Some EU countries are 100% dependent on Russia for their gas supply, in Germany it's 35% (and 36% for oil). In Germany, heating in almost 50% of homes depends on gas, almost 30% on oil, electricity accounts for just 5,4%.

Replacing Russian oil supply is not a big problem. Replacing Russian gas supply is not really possible in the short term (because of pipeline infrastructure, and some countries will have to produce more), but it will become a long term goal now, as it seems.