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[da_nang]

In Finnish news, Dmitri Medvedev made a surprise visit to Crimea, declaring it a "special economic zone". Furthermore, at least one Russian battalion has been withdrawn from the Ukrainian border.

[miljan]

...at least one Russian battalion has been withdrawn from the Ukrainian border.

Its a trap.

They want ukraine to feel safe, and then strike them

[nenjin]

Any news on the hostilities, gentlemen?

Merkel says that Putin agreed to pull a fraction of his forces back from the Ukraine/Crimea border.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

They aren't going to attack until the pipes that run through Ukraine are worthless. Till then it's just show-boating to influence the negotiations.
I'll eat my shoe be somewhat surprised if I'm wrong.

[Mr. Strange]

I would make joke about voting in favor of Russian invasion happening soon-ish, but with my luck in betting it would become real.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Then I'll make it for you. The best day to attack Ukraine is April Fool's day.  Because only a fool can start a war that will ruin his own economy

[mainiac]

It occurred to me that this whole incident revealed something rather indirect about the geopolitical outlook of the Chinese leadership.

China from a 19th century imperialist view would want a direct military clash between Russia and NATO.  In such a clash Russia would destroy it's standing with Europe and greatly reduce their own importance.  But it wouldn't destroy Russia or align them with Europe because NATO knows that the Russian people don't want regime change, doubly so at the hands of an invading army.  The result would be that Russia would be forced to align itself outside Europe, both economically and militarily.  Basically this would reduce their options to irrelevance (which they wouldn't accept) and being a junior partner in a Russian-Chinese alliance.

For the Chinese this would be a splendid position.  They would get cheap Russian energy at better prices because Russia would have no other market, creating a Russian economic dependence on China.  They could leverage this to exploit the military industrial complex of Russia which does have some splendid technology.  Russia would lose it's influence in Europe but for the Chinese that doesn't matter, they'd be getting everything they could want out of Russia.  Just like Russia was trying to align the Ukraine, China would be aligning all of Russia.

So what this tells us about the Chinese leadership is that they don't see geopolitics as bi-lateral confrontational.  If they did they would be giving Russia tacit support to try and goad them on.  They wouldn't need to outright support Russia, they could just stick their nose into the mess then talk a lot about peaceful resolutions without blaming either side.  Such bet hedging would make it sound like China is inclined to support Russia even as they keep saying they wont.  At the end of the day their nose would be clean but conflict more likely.

China hasn't taken this approach though.  They've pointedly kept out of this stuff and given Russia no support or hints of support.  That leaves Russia isolated and makes conflict less likely.  So while Russia might buy into a Cold War 2 between the US and Russia, China clearly doesn't buy into a Cold War 2 between the US and China.

[miljan]

China hasn't taken this approach though.  They've pointedly kept out of this stuff and given Russia no support or hints of support.  That leaves Russia isolated and makes conflict less likely.  So while Russia might buy into a Cold War 2 between the US and Russia, China clearly doesn't buy into a Cold War 2 between the US and China.

Chine can not support openly something when it has problems like tibet. Thats the reason they are neutral in this, and not full against russia, or supporting it

Also it is clear now, that there will not be any cold war, or any sanctions if the things stay as they are now.

[misko27]

My theory: Putin is bluffing, and he's doing it very well, but he might be wrong.

Think about it. 40,000 troops on the border. War chanting at home. Mentioning Transnistria. The whole occupying Crimea thing. The west (and everyone else) is convinced he has his eyes on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, something.

But what if his plan is to act out as if he was going to go around and murder everyone, but instead seemingly "settle" for Crimea alone? Here, he gets to deescalate the situation,  and on his own terms, without letting everyone think he is a ruthless dictator plotting to conquer everyone. The west's main objective, maintain the rest of Ukraine, is achieved. No reason to go to war or anything; he must know that it would be suicidal in the long run to fully engage NATO. So instead, he pulls back, the west returns to a general state of disquiet but not alarm, and he manages to make off with Crimea while managing to look like he's being conciliatory and making the EU look weak. We already see some of this in Putin's surprise call to Obama. He literally gets away with Crimea while conceding, which is impressive. No one wants to help Ukraine get that back if Putin isn't going to go nuts and invade the rest.

He might've miscalculated though. There is a lot of antipathy towards him now here; the next President, whether Democrat or Republican, isn't going to be trying any sort of "reset". The russo-neighbors are scared, and many will accelerate their pull away: fear of invasion has a tendency to silence those partial to the potential invaders. Whether or not he plans on fully conceding the rest of his influence in Ukraine, there is a lot of anger towards him there. And no one remembers when, just a short while ago, he was the champion of freedom from spying, and Snowden is worse off for being associated. NATO is re-ascendant in it's old role, where just weeks before it was disengaging. Only time will tell whether this will develop into the new norm though.

I might be wrong mind. He could be the wild nationalist tiger I've seen him depicted as. In that case, may god help us all. But I don't buy it.

[Zangi]

I've been saying all this time.  Putin is not dumb enough to take the rest of Ukraine by force.  Not without obvious direct attack by Ukraine military forces.

Putin has his cards set, in case shit does hit the fan.  By shit hitting the fan, I mean Russia rolling into Ukraine. 
Sure, some Russian citizens may not like what is happening now, but if Russian bodies turn up as a result of a Ukraine military attack, guess what is going to happen?

[GrizzlyAdamz]

The idea of a Ukraine mounting an offensive campaign is absurd.
That's all there is to it.
My jimmies are starting to get rustled whenever you guys claim 'he's just got his ducks in a row in case Ukraine INVADES!'
FFS

With Putin's sudden conciliatory stance, this whole thing is really looking like a farce for shoring up Putin's popular support in Russia and securing the Sevastopol base.
The troops on the border are for intimidation while Russia tries to dictate Ukraine's constitution, ultimately, hopefully- to the russian gov, leading to a breakup into western & eastern states. One guess why that's being pursued.

--Mm, and apparently the west is going for it. Ukraine's to be unofficially divvied up eh? 

[mainiac]

HOLY SHIT HEAVY RUSSIAN BOMBING IN KIEV

Edit: OBAMA VOWS MILITARY RETALIATION

Double Edit: Medelev announces "unrestrained warfare against the countries conspiring to undermine Russian security"

Triple Edit: Bohner just got on TV and announced "All Americans stand united behind the President" then hinted at regime change in Russia.

Quadruple Edit: Explosions seen at the NATO headquarters in Brussels[/ur].  We are officially fucked.

[Dutchling]

HOLY SHIT HEAVY RUSSIAN BOMBING IN KIEV

Edit: OBAMA VOWS MILITARY RETALIATION

Double Edit: Medelev announces "unrestrained warfare against the countries conspiring to undermine Russian security"

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[GrizzlyAdamz]

You fellows need practice.

[mainiac]

You fellows need practice.

Okay your link was better, I was in a rush, don't we have bigger issues right now?