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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 311227 times)

GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3945 on: March 29, 2014, 04:14:12 pm »

The elephant in the room that everyone is still avoiding is the matter of the gas pipes.

I can't see any invasion going through unless diplomacy gets to the point where those pipes might as well be blown up.


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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3946 on: March 29, 2014, 04:17:31 pm »

Hm, strange, I can read it just fine without registration. Other way:

Spoiler: wall of text (click to show/hide)

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3947 on: March 29, 2014, 04:28:15 pm »

War is likely
Judging by content and styling, it may as well have been Cracked. :P

Well, not really (not nearly as humorous, unless you have specific tastes), but it still seems like the writer wanted a good round number of reasons and decided to pad out the missing.. half or so.

There's just one point I can make off the top of my head against any and all realistic-sounding reasons why a Russia-anyone war is likely, or going to happen, and that's plainly that no war is going to have any kind of positive support over here. Even one not started by us, because the cause and effect would have been too obvious. I still maintain that all of that movement along the Ukrainian borders is just a glorified military parade with loaded guns. They are ready for war to break out, because that's the whole point of it, to show we are ready for it - but it's meant to dissuade from attacking, not to stage an attack.

In a way, it a conventional-war MAD situation. Both sides know that all hell will break loose should war start, and both sides have a lot to lose from it. And since a choreographic display of nuclear missiles won't go well with anyone at all, and would be overkill against a country that doesn't have an answer to them, the conventional army moves in and makes its best impression of a medieval legion clanging its swords against its shields. Just to show that they're there, and that they'll be what anyone who wants trouble with their country will have to answer to.

Of course, I can still be wrong - as shown from my retrospective analysis earlier, that I would have been wrong about Crimea at that given point in time. But from what I know now, my prediction is that nothing will happen from our side, and that our armed forces will pull back once Ukraine stabilizes and the world is back to silently hating the red menace.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3948 on: March 29, 2014, 04:52:25 pm »

Quote
and that's plainly that no war is going to have any kind of positive support over here.
Sorry, I don't believe that. Just don't. I read Russian Internet often enough.
Even in Ukraine we have few% that would welcome the war, in Russia that's at the very least dozens... As for ones who will be unhappy... OMON exists for them (and Crimean Berkut will help OMON)

Quote
Both sides know that all hell will break loose should war start, and both sides have a lot to lose from it
Problem is that Russia will lose a lot in a any case. You got a depressive region*, Turned Ukrainian population against yourself** (good luck pro-Russian candidates on the elections), damaged foreign relations and may wave goodbye modernization of the army, the article explains why quite nicely. So Putin may decide that he'll lose much less by starting a war. Especially if he expects that victory will be very easy and swift

*Really, Crimea will need huge amount of cash to repair it. It wasn't in great  shape before all that crap started... Now it will either siphon money from Russian reserves or become new Transininstra. Or both
** Getting Central Ukraine to be more anti-Russian than Western Ukraine is quite an achievement Mr.Putin
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DJ

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3949 on: March 29, 2014, 06:58:02 pm »

Is there actually anything that NATO can do to stop Russia if it decides to invade Eastern Ukraine? Direct conventional war would go nuclear pretty soon. Just about the only thing I can see working is giving Ukraine a couple of nukes, but I don't see that idea getting popular.
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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3950 on: March 29, 2014, 07:03:58 pm »

Is there actually anything that NATO can do to stop Russia if it decides to invade Eastern Ukraine? Direct conventional war would go nuclear pretty soon. Just about the only thing I can see working is giving Ukraine a couple of nukes, but I don't see that idea getting popular.
Things didn't get nuclear when the US intervened in the Georgia-Russia thing back in 2008, and that was a very similar situation.

Helgoland

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3951 on: March 29, 2014, 07:15:48 pm »

Military aid, sanctions, covert actions, shared intelligence, giving weapons to the Chechen separatists, 'volunteers' like the Chinese ones in the Korean war... They could do plenty, actually.
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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3952 on: March 29, 2014, 07:26:47 pm »

You know, UR, I'd just like to mention that russians are not exactly the kitten-fucking cartoonish villains you suggest them to be and are not very keen on the prospect of war either. They were right before and right after the Crimean invasion, but now both the general public opinion and the official propaganda stance is that the desired outcome, namely the protection of Crimeans, has been achieved, admirably, without any bloodshed. An act of aggression will be now seen by many russians as unjustified.
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smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3953 on: March 29, 2014, 07:37:05 pm »

If Russia just wanted to deter Ukraine from attacking (which would be suicidal on Ukraines part), 40k troops seems overkill, especially when that number just keeps increasing.
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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3954 on: March 29, 2014, 07:39:22 pm »

Please don't confuse Russia with its people. Russia does what Putin says, not what the public thinks.
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smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3955 on: March 29, 2014, 07:43:05 pm »

Please don't confuse Russia with its people. Russia does what Putin says, not what the public thinks.

I WAS referring to the Russian government, not it's people.
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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3956 on: March 29, 2014, 07:43:58 pm »

Sorry, I thought you were refuting my argument there.
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mainiac

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3957 on: March 29, 2014, 08:15:28 pm »

Is there actually anything that NATO can do to stop Russia if it decides to invade Eastern Ukraine? Direct conventional war would go nuclear pretty soon. Just about the only thing I can see working is giving Ukraine a couple of nukes, but I don't see that idea getting popular.

No it would not go nuclear pretty quick.  It would go nuclear never.  NUKES DONT LAUNCH THEMSELVES.  Someone has to actually make a decision to launch them.

Let's discuss the advantages NATO has briefly
1) Complete air superiority.  The F-22 might be an overdesigned money sink but it's also fantastically well suited for a first strike role fighting something like the modern Russian airforce.  Behind it is top notch AWACS and a huge arsenal of European and American fighters and joint role craft to exploit this.  The Russians have less then 100 post Soviet fighter craft.  They'd be outnumbered and facing planes that far outclass them.  The importance of complete air superiority in a modern conflict cant be overstated, it's said that tanks simply can not operate on a battlefield where the enemy has air superiority.  Look at the first and second gulf wars to see this taken to the extremes.
2) Overwhelming numerical superiority.  This is a nation of 150 million going up against an alliance with five times that population.  In terms of boots on the ground, tanks, helicopters, AT missiles, NATO forces just would have the numbers to be everywhere at once.  Any russian resistance could be enveloped at every turn.  Even a fraction of NATO's forces would be sufficient.
3) Conscription.  NATO countries have conscription too but it's a bigger problem for Russia in this situation because they're the side that's outgunned.  It wouldn't be a problem if they were fighting inside Russia but very little of this fighting would need to be done inside Russia.  This isn't a military problem per se but politically russia's government could rapidly unravel their mandate if they conscript people then get them killed fighting a better equipped enemy.

Here is how a hypothetical war would play out:
Weeks 1 and 2: Russia curbstomps Ukraine and occupies all the country
Weeks 3, 4, 5: Sitzkreig as NATO forces redeploy
Weeks 6 and 7: NATO curbstomps Russia even more harshly then Russia just curbstomped the Ukraine, taking back all of Ukraine.
Week 8: War's over, NATO doesn't need to invade Russia.

At no point is either side in danger of national annihilation that would provoke a nuclear escalation.

This is why the foreign policy article is bullshit.  Russia is not going to put itself at serious risk of a war with NATO.  You don't need to be a military expert to understand that Russia is completely and utterly outclassed here.  Putin can get away with small stuff, Crimea, Georgia a while back, little pieces at the edge.  But a wholescale invasion of Ukraine at this point?  No way that would slide.  Maybe at the start of this whole affair but that time is past now.
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ibot66

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3958 on: March 29, 2014, 08:25:14 pm »

Also, if NATO or even ukraine does very well against the Russians I wouldn't expect Russias government to stay around. Or the economy. Or possibly Siberia. And the caucuses. Maybe not even St. Petersburg (who would they even secede into? Would they just be an independant city?)
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smjjames

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Re: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread
« Reply #3959 on: March 29, 2014, 08:37:25 pm »

I guess just be their own city-state? Singapore is one...

St. Petersburg actually separating and becoming their own city state would hit Russian morale pretty hard I think.

If Putins goal is to make Ukraine piss it's collective pants, then mission accomplished, you can send the soldiers home now :P
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