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[smjjames]

Russia seems about ready to flood through the Ukranian border and make Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia.

[Lagslayer]

I just want everyone to know that if the nukes fly and the fallout gives me super powers, I will demand blood sacrifices of the survivors.

[Comrade P.]

Russia seems about ready to flood through the Ukranian border and make Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia.

All I ask is a proof. Actual proof.

[scriver]

Honest line of thought: Should the interregnum government of Ukraine organise their own  referendums in the provinces of asking them whether they want to stay in Ukraine or join Russia? As a preemptive move to counter any possible claim Russia might come up with.

[smjjames]

Russia seems about ready to flood through the Ukranian border and make Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia.

All I ask is a proof. Actual proof.

The only proof I have is their massing on the Ukranian border and their past actions, I didn't say it was fact. If anything, it's a statement of opinion.

Honest line of thought: Should the interregnum government of Ukraine organise their own  referendums in the provinces of asking them whether they want to stay in Ukraine or join Russia? As a preemptive move to counter any possible claim Russia might come up with.

Right now isn't a particularily good time because people are going to vote with their emotions rather than their heads. Well, true, people often vote with their feelings, but it's pretty chaotic right now and emotions are running high. Meh, I kind of invalidated myself. I think the point I'm making is that things are rather chaotic and it might be better if things calmed down a little, but that isn't exactly happening.

[Comrade P.]

Russia seems about ready to flood through the Ukranian border and make Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia.

All I ask is a proof. Actual proof.

The only proof I have is their massing on the Ukranian border and their past actions, I didn't say it was fact. If anything, it's a statement of opinion.

You know, our Misnistry of Defence allowed Ukrainian scout plane to cross the border and scout on Russian side in order to ensure them we have no forces concentrated on the border. No more than we used to have before this mess began. Waiting for results.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Scriver, that's like mailing the bully your lunchmoney.
Not only would the interim gov get soooo ousted, they may be giving it away for nothing. Not to mention, you're assuming Russia's motives are /actually/ aligned with 'protecting ethnic russians'.
The only reason I can see for an invasion of Ukraine proper is to prevent them getting nukes & integrating with the EU.
Giving them Ukraine's eastern industrial hubs won't dissuade that.

Also, if they hold the referendums & they come back 'stay with Ukraine', would you really expect Russia to go 'welp, the people spoke, guess that's that' if they want to invade?

[smjjames]

Scriver, that's like mailing the bully your lunchmoney.
Not only would the interim gov get soooo ousted, they may be giving it away for nothing. Not to mention, you're assuming Russia's motives are /actually/ aligned with 'protecting ethnic russians'.
The only reason I can see for an invasion of Ukraine proper is to prevent them getting nukes & integrating with the EU.
Giving them Ukraine's eastern industrial hubs won't dissuade that.

Also, if they hold the referendums & they come back 'stay with Ukraine', would you really expect Russia to go 'welp, the people spoke, guess that's that' if they want to invade?

Um, reality check, since when have they expressed a desire for getting nukes? Also, remember that Budapest treaty? They gave up the nukes that they accquired from the Soviet Union* and promised not to make any.

*More like suddenly found themselves owning the nukes that were on their lands.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

You know, our Misnistry of Defence allowed Ukrainian scout plane to cross the border and scout on Russian side in order to ensure them we have no forces concentrated on the border. No more than we used to have before this mess began. Waiting for results.

Yes. Allowed. In predefined zone in Russian aircraft without special equipment installed. At least that what it was two weeks ago. Doubt that the offer changed

[10ebbor10]

Besides, nukes aren't that easily fabricated.

[Comrade P.]

You know, our Misnistry of Defence allowed Ukrainian scout plane to cross the border and scout on Russian side in order to ensure them we have no forces concentrated on the border. No more than we used to have before this mess began. Waiting for results.

Yes. Allowed. In predefined zone in Russian aircraft without special equipment installed. At least that what it was two weeks ago. Doubt that the offer changed

As far as I know, it is Ukrainian AН-30Б. With equipment. No idea about predefined zone, but if it's true, it has very little sense, except the zone includes all the border region, but I doubt it is so.

I'm just generally convinced that Russia has no interventional intensions. It causes a war, and I doubt that most of Russians can even imagine war with Ukraine. Don't know about Ukrainians, but overall it seems to me they are looking at it as if it is a very possible variant, though among them points of view are also different.

[smjjames]

Besides, nukes aren't that easily fabricated.

And if they had been trying to get nukes, they would be breaking the Budapest memorandum, specifically the nuclear non-proliferation part of it.

It's pretty clear that Russia broke part 1 and 2 of that memorandum. It would have been great if the memorandum specified the consequences of breaking the treaty, but then again, Russia might not have agreed or recognized the memorandum if consequences were specified.

Edit: Huh, look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances#1994_Crimean_crisis Crimea (a republic back then) tried to join Russia some 20 years ago but Ukraine absorbed it. I wonder if this is a factor in Russias' motives.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

It's conjecture- they gave them up when Russia & friends agreed not to invade them in return. Now that Russia's invaded them, (something that wouldn't have happened if they hadn't given up their nukes), that's a neat incentive for rearming.

Someone mentioned Ukraine played a major role in ICBM manufacturing in soviet times. Therefore they could still retain the capability to manufacture their own.

Russia's broken that treaty, and both the USA & UK could seek to revise it given Russia's recent actions.


Heh, yeah, I saw that.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Russia may ban import of medical equipment as response to the western sanctions
Link in Russian

How many Russians will die  if that will happen? I guess it is another necessary sacrifice (c)

[smjjames]

Maybe one (or some) of the European countries could loan some nukes to Ukraine if they wanted some?

There are enough nuclear weapons in the world already, we don't need to proliferate them.

Russia may ban import of medical equipment as response to the western sanctions
Link in Russian

How many Russians will die  if that will happen? I guess it is another necessary sacrifice (c)

Sounds like a knee-jerk reaction that isn't thought out as far as the consequences. Heck, medical equipment and medicine don't fall under international sanctions, so the Russians are only hurting themselves if they do this.