Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[GlyphGryph]

He's making a non sequiter ad hominem, not a straw man! Like some sort of commie, he's arguing we should ALL make strawman, and I, for one, can not STAND it!

[Knit tie]

Right, guys, any actual news? I heard the referendum has already occurred.

[Sheb]

It's still happening, the polls should close in around 90 minutes.

[Knit tie]

I bet Crimea will join Russia. Although some people might vote for joining Russia instead.

[Owlbread]

Given that the EU and the USA are refusing to recognise the outcome of the referendum Crimea is going to be much more like South Ossetia or Transnistria than, say, Karelia or Stavropol Krai.

For all intents and purposes South Ossetia and Transnistria are subjects/republics of the Russian Federation, but problems with international recognition and hostility mean they are forced to be de facto independent countries. They were formed however with clear "independence" mandates, not mandates for joining Russia. I don't know if that means Crimea will be a very unique entity, more clearly a federal subject but almost Kashmir-like given the lack of international recognition and disputed sovereignty.

In any case, from now on any maps purchased in the West will probably show a dotted line around Crimea with "Russia" written in grey italics next to it.

[Helgoland]

Spoiler: Has this infographic been posted yet? (click to show/hide)

If Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to retake Crimea, what would happen?

[Comrade P.]

Spoiler: Has this infographic been posted yet? (click to show/hide)

If Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to retake Crimea, what would happen?

WWIII.

[Sheb]

Good question. NATO is only bound to help defend its members, so it would depend on whether NATO rule Ukraine is defending itself or attacking Russia/Crimea.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

So, unknown exit poll says that 93% want to Russia! Yay!
Interesting what turnout they'll announce


Comrade P.
WW3 will happen anyway, either now or several years later when Russia will do something that West can't tolerate, like occupying Baltic states

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Heh, already sounding totally legit.

I'd wager for that reason (among others) Ukraine won't get to join.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Looks like another genocide of Crimean Tatars begins

[Comrade P.]

Comrade P.
WW3 will happen anyway, either now or several years later when Russia will do something that West can't tolerate, like occupying Baltic states

Ahem. [sarcasm]Comrade Russian Foreign Mininster! Why you reveal yourself and our top secret plans?[/sarcasm]
Seiously.W hat is the reason that makes you think this way? Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?

Looks like another genocide of Crimean Tatars begins

Did someone said something about biased media? Should I spam you with plenty of sources telling of genocide performed by right sector?

[GlyphGryph]

Remember that UR is currently in the middle of a Russian invasion, so he's decidedly pessimistic about Russian's willingness to stop it's advance here... and for good reason.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Seiously.W hat is the reason that makes you think this way? Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?

I bet that average German in 1939 would say - "no, we don't want a new Great War. For what?  Nobody want the second Great War. We are a peaceful nation. "


I don't believe that Russian invasion will stop with Crimea. It's a nonsense to launch an expensive military operation, ruin  diplomatic capital and hit domestic economics in exchange for a underdeveloped poor region (Even by Ukrainian standard Crimea is poor 3% of GDP,  while 4.3% of territory and 4-5% of population),  that will be further hit by all that instability. Doing the same in exchange for industrial part of Ukraine and\or placing Yanukovitch back in power  is much more logical.

[Bauglir]

Why the fuck Russia should escalate conflict? In order to do what? Start a WWIII? This is not the russian goal. Nobody wants WWIII. Or maybe some of you guys? Anyone? No?

Nobody wanted what WW1 turned out to be, either. When people predict WW3, it's not a prediction of scheming masterminds bringing down the world, it's a prediction of somebody getting overconfident or making a mistake or otherwise taking a gamble that doesn't pay off. We had a Cold War for a reason, although I'm not saying you can equate modern-day Russia with the Soviet Union in all ways - just that you can equate nearly any nuclear-armed state with the Soviet Union for the purposes of predicting the efficacy of military deterrence.

Saying WW3 is impossible is disturbingly similar to some advice that came up during the Cuban Missile Crisis: No rational person would choose nuclear war. Therefore, there could be no possible response to an attack by a nation armed with nuclear weapons. Therefore, the best option for the US to resolve a diplomatic problem was to bomb the shit out of it. Hopefully, it's obvious why that's insane. Basically, it's not a realistic strategy to assume that nobody will choose an option that no rational actor would choose - there are a lot of reasons why, and I highly recommend studying this stuff for a better explanation than I can ever give over a forum, but things can happen that nobody wants. Game theory's a good place to start, although it tends to have the troublesome assumption that everyone involved is rational. Again, bringing up the Soviet Union is kind of a coincidence, since this thinking kind of applies to everyone, but here we are.

I don't know the politics well enough to say how likely some kind of WW3 scenario actually is to spring from Russian actions, but I know enough about human nature to say you should never rule something out because it's too terrible to contemplate.