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Author Topic: UR's Post-USSR politics megathread  (Read 309326 times)

Sergarr

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2280 on: March 10, 2014, 02:42:52 pm »

Well that's the greenhouse effect dealt with.
Sadly, to get rid of the most active oil users in the world, we must get rid of both USA and Chinas oil economies.

And that's unthinkable to the current generation.
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GreatJustice

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2281 on: March 10, 2014, 02:46:12 pm »

A drop in the bucket? Europe imports about 30% of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, hardly amounts that could be easily replaced by other sources in the near term. Considering the economic state of most EU countries, a cut in Russian energy supplies would be crippling.

Way to use qualitative description completely devoid of any sense of scale of what you are actually talking about.

Right, because the European economy is very small, so 30% really isn't hard to replace after all.

Analogy time! I used 50% of all the money I had on me to buy a can of Coke. It costs 1$. Expensive or not?

The fact that it's 30% of all oil doesn't mean it's a lot of oil.

Please remind me how much oil and gas the EU consumes, because it sounds to me like you're trying to say it's a pretty small amount.
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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2282 on: March 10, 2014, 02:47:18 pm »

Well that's the greenhouse effect dealt with.
Sadly, to get rid of the most active oil users in the world, we must get rid of both USA and Chinas oil economies.

And that's unthinkable to the current generation.

I think he was being facetious.




Anyone know more about the oil pipelines? It looks like, if kiev had their shit together and have already mined all the piping in their territory, Russia's export capacity to the west would be halved or more.
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mainiac

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2283 on: March 10, 2014, 02:49:49 pm »

Right, because the European economy is very small, so 30% really isn't hard to replace after all.

Actually you've got it backwards.  The European economy is very large, so replacing a hundred billion dollars of Russian energy imports would be very manageable for Europe.  They could even push two hundred billion dollars if they wanted to.  For Russia, such a loss of revenue would represent a 10% yearly drop in GDP.  That's an event in the ballpark of the collapse of communism in terms of economic disruption.

This isn't complicated, Europe economy big.  Russia economy small.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Sergarr

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2284 on: March 10, 2014, 03:07:51 pm »

Well that's the greenhouse effect dealt with.
Sadly, to get rid of the most active oil users in the world, we must get rid of both USA and Chinas oil economies.

And that's unthinkable to the current generation.

I think he was being facetious.




Anyone know more about the oil pipelines? It looks like, if kiev had their shit together and have already mined all the piping in their territory, Russia's export capacity to the west would be halved or more.
The Ukraine won't survive without those pipes, you know. They already have a giant hole in the place of their budget, without that.
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GreatJustice

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2285 on: March 10, 2014, 03:10:45 pm »

Right, because the European economy is very small, so 30% really isn't hard to replace after all.

Actually you've got it backwards.  The European economy is very large, so replacing a hundred billion dollars of Russian energy imports would be very manageable for Europe.  They could even push two hundred billion dollars if they wanted to.  For Russia, such a loss of revenue would represent a 10% yearly drop in GDP.  That's an event in the ballpark of the collapse of communism in terms of economic disruption.

This isn't complicated, Europe economy big.  Russia economy small.

They're going to take their money, put it into an alchemical mixture, and create natural gas to use? I didn't know it worked that way.

Now lets see, where would Europe get natural gas and oil from without Russia? First off, the price would be drastically increased to account for transportation cost, as Russia's pipeline is significantly cheaper to run and more efficient than shipping. Iran is embargoed under sanctions as well to my understanding, the US has sufficient energy needs that it isn't likely to export much, the Saudis have plenty but are supplying many other countries already right now and don't have unlimited production, etc etc etc.

You also seem to be forgetting that the economy is not a gigantic, amorphous mound of cash, but a system of trades conducted by many different individuals. So if I'm a German factory owner and suddenly my costs for energy skyrocket, I can't just say "well its a good thing I'm German, I'll just take my share of the national GDP to cover my expenses", I have to cut something to make up the cost. Maybe I increase prices, maybe I cut production a bit, maybe I lay off a bunch of workers or what have you, but whatever I do, it isn't good for me. Furthermore, everyone I do business with is hurt too, both directly by the drastic increase in energy costs (and I'm being generous here and assuming there isn't a massive shortage in the aftermath of Russian import cuts bringing European industry to a grinding halt) and indirectly by other German companies up and down the supply chain having to deal with these increased energy costs. Thus, you have a domino effect; companies go out of business, people lose their jobs, companies have to cut production because people lost their jobs and aren't buying their products, and so on and so forth. Now, there are plenty of ways to adjust to this in the long run that would minimize damage, but looking at the European Union's economic policies, it's doubtful that the adjustment would be anything but harsh.
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

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mainiac

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2286 on: March 10, 2014, 03:21:43 pm »

You also seem to be forgetting that the economy is not a gigantic, amorphous mound of cash, but a system of trades conducted by many different individuals.

No, you are just strawmanning as hard as you can.

It would be expensive for Europe to change it's energy portfolio on short notice.  Doesn't mean it can't be done and doesn't mean it hasn't been done in the very recent past.
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Mephansteras

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2287 on: March 10, 2014, 03:32:11 pm »

Depends a lot on how much the US decides to help. Subsidized gas/oil from the US to Europe, even if just for a while, could dramatically impact the Russian economy. How willing the US is to do that is the question, of course, but it IS possible.
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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2288 on: March 10, 2014, 03:34:06 pm »

Snip
The Ukraine won't survive without those pipes, you know. They already have a giant hole in the place of their budget, without that.

But if they're facing an existential threat? And the EU isn't helping militarily? That's a big club to be brandished by a desperate man.
What do they get from the pipelines? A toll?



ALSO, how come no one's mentioned china, its hikes in military spending and how they & the US are getting a bit more buddy-buddy?
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10ebbor10

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2289 on: March 10, 2014, 03:35:25 pm »

Well, Saudi has more than enough production capacity to make up for a Russian drop in  supply. I mean, they are massively limiting their production as it is, so...
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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2290 on: March 10, 2014, 03:37:14 pm »

I've heard their claims of massive production limitations are misinformation spread by their oil companies to get around export limits. Also peak oil.
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2291 on: March 10, 2014, 03:40:58 pm »

Quote
Iran is embargoed under sanctions as well to my understanding
I suspect that this visit may include some talks about oil

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GrizzlyAdamz

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2292 on: March 10, 2014, 03:57:12 pm »

Here, according to wiki 80% of russian exports to the EU goes through Ukraine. That's probably the biggest detterent to full-scale invasion.
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olemars

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2293 on: March 10, 2014, 03:59:17 pm »

While the EU imports a third of its oil and gas from Russia, about 75% of Russia's total oil and gas exports go to the EU, and the pipeline infrastructure makes it hard for them to send it anywhere else. So it's a bit of a staring match. I suspect there's going to be embargos on a lot of other stuff before they start on the fossils.
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ivze

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Re: Russian intervention in Ukraine
« Reply #2294 on: March 10, 2014, 04:11:21 pm »

Here we have a video by a well-known Russian movie translator and a public person Dmitry Puchkov http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Puchkov.
In both harsh and comic manner he describes his thinking about the crisis. It is true to say, that his feelings are shared among quite a big part of Russian society.

English subtitles included in video.
http://youtu.be/dfzMnP3ilcI
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