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[10ebbor10]

They most certainly aren't. Yeez, pro/anti nuclear is still at a rather thigh split, even with a worst case incident happening in japan;
When the lights go out, people will reconsider.

Besides, they don't have to say that they're returning to Nuclear. The nuclear shutdown in Germany was -aside from a purely populistic descision- completely illegal, so they can just say they're allowing the plants to operate untill the end of their lifetime to avoid a multi-billion fine.

[XXSockXX]

Yeah, in the worst case the nuclear reactors are still there. If the light goes out, the reactors will become much more popular again. Also it was a very mild winter, so gas reserves are full.
As a long term solution, the US might decide to export some of their natural gas from fracking. They are at least thinking about it, to possibly counter Russian influence in Europe.

[mainiac]

Sanctions strike me as unlikely considering how many Western countries are dependent on Russian energy imports. Certainly would hurt the Russians quite a lot, but it'd hurt the Europeans just as much, if not more.

The EU economy is 8 times that of Russia.  Natural gas exports are 17% of the Russian economy, for Europe it's a drop in the bucket.  And Russia isn't the only seller in the world of natural gas.  If European countries decide that for security reason it makes sense to pay a modest premium on non-Russian sources of gas it would be devestating to the Russian economy but would be about the equivalent to a bad quarter for Europe.  That's not too bad a price to pay to make sure that Putin never pulls another stunt that hurts the European economy like this.

[nenjin]

Yeah, in the worst case the nuclear reactors are still there. If the light goes out, the reactors will become much more popular again. Also it was a very mild winter, so gas reserves are full.
As a long term solution, the US might decide to export some of their natural gas from fracking. They are at least thinking about it, to possibly counter Russian influence in Europe.

On this, Republicans here are basically using the Ukraine to push the same agenda they were for during Obama's first term.

"Automatically approve all pipelines"

"Open up protected areas to prospecting"

"Increase natural gas production so we can export it"

Replacing Russia as an energy producer and the Republican Energy Agenda intersecting is just political serendipity. Republicans don't give two shits about the rest of the world, they're just using it as an excuse to hammer Obama so energy barons can make even more money on their currently existing infrastructure, instead of converting to greener forms of energy.

[Knit tie]

And as usual, I'm too busy to research myself. Any news, gentlemen?

[mainiac]

Whatever the republican motives are, the democrats do now have a motive to consider natural gas exports so it might happen.

[nenjin]

Whatever the republican motives are, the democrats do now have a motive to consider natural gas exports so it might happen.

Making use of our existing stockpiles for export I'm ok with. Declaring open season on all forms of energy production, I'm not. Deregulating the industry as Republicans want will just give us another Deep Water Horizon event, only with a natural gas flavor.

[GreatJustice]

Sanctions strike me as unlikely considering how many Western countries are dependent on Russian energy imports. Certainly would hurt the Russians quite a lot, but it'd hurt the Europeans just as much, if not more.

The EU economy is 8 times that of Russia.  Natural gas exports are 17% of the Russian economy, for Europe it's a drop in the bucket.  And Russia isn't the only seller in the world of natural gas.  If European countries decide that for security reason it makes sense to pay a modest premium on non-Russian sources of gas it would be devestating to the Russian economy but would be about the equivalent to a bad quarter for Europe.  That's not too bad a price to pay to make sure that Putin never pulls another stunt that hurts the European economy like this.

A drop in the bucket? Europe imports about 30% of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, hardly amounts that could be easily replaced by other sources in the near term. Considering the economic state of most EU countries, a cut in Russian energy supplies would be crippling.

[Helgoland]

It would be tough if it happened immediately, but these things take time - and the Saudis will be more than happy to step in, considering that they're Russia's rivals in the Middle East. Even the worst case won't be as bad as the oil crises in the 70's.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

Nenjin/maniac, you're getting off-topic.


How about the pipelines that run through Ukraine? West Ukraine gets invaded, Russia's economy might take a massive hit anyway.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

http://en.ria.ru/infographics/20120117/170800440.html

[mainiac]

A drop in the bucket? Europe imports about 30% of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, hardly amounts that could be easily replaced by other sources in the near term. Considering the economic state of most EU countries, a cut in Russian energy supplies would be crippling.

Way to use qualitative description completely devoid of any sense of scale of what you are actually talking about.

[GreatJustice]

A drop in the bucket? Europe imports about 30% of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, hardly amounts that could be easily replaced by other sources in the near term. Considering the economic state of most EU countries, a cut in Russian energy supplies would be crippling.

Way to use qualitative description completely devoid of any sense of scale of what you are actually talking about.

Right, because the European economy is very small, so 30% really isn't hard to replace after all.

[scrdest]

A drop in the bucket? Europe imports about 30% of its oil and 40% of its gas from Russia, hardly amounts that could be easily replaced by other sources in the near term. Considering the economic state of most EU countries, a cut in Russian energy supplies would be crippling.

Way to use qualitative description completely devoid of any sense of scale of what you are actually talking about.

Right, because the European economy is very small, so 30% really isn't hard to replace after all.

Analogy time! I used 50% of all the money I had on me to buy a can of Coke. It costs 1$. Expensive or not?

The fact that it's 30% of all oil doesn't mean it's a lot of oil.

[Sergarr]

No oil => no fuel => no cars => nobody can get to work => bam.

[Darvi]

Well that's the greenhouse effect dealt with.