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[XXSockXX]

How realistically possible would it be for Ukraine to move the date of the Referendum back(by negotiating with Russia) or interfere with it to keep it stalled until a proper Ukrainian Government has been elected?

I think we're past that point, pretty sure Putin will make sure the referendum goes through. Elections in Ukraine would be difficult now, with Crimea in Russian control and unrest in some predominantly Russian-speaking cities like Odessa and Donetsk.

I'm afraid at this point we're negotiating about what happens with the rest of Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry has released a statement today accusing the Right Sector of being responsible for the unrest in Eastern Ukraine and some other stuff, and the government in Kiev of tolerating it (link in Russian, got that from here). Remember, Putin has a mandate to intervene in Ukraine if Russians are in danger, which is pretty much what they are saying right now.


Russia still does not want to participate in the proposed contact group and still refuses to talk to the Ukrainian government. I guess the plan is to push the referendum through, then the EU will issue sanctions which ideally should force Russia to talk with Kiev and come to some kind of understanding. I guess they will want to keep Crimea after the referendum though, that seems difficult to prevent now.

[nenjin]

Yeah, I feel like absorbing Crimea is all but a foregone conclusion now unless Ukraine wants to open fire on Russia. Which would only confirm Russia's position that Crimeans are in danger.

Really though, Putin has spent basically all his international political capital to achieve this. The word of Russia is going to mean absolutely nothing internationally, and they're going to get sanctioned in pretty much every quarter....well, I hope it was worth it. Maybe in 10 years Russia can again start to earn their way back into the EU's and the West's good graces. But for now, no one is going to trust a damn thing they have to say on anything.

[Sergarr]

Yeah, I feel like absorbing Crimea is all but a foregone conclusion now unless Ukraine wants to open fire on Russia. Which would only confirm Russia's position that Crimean's are in danger.

Really though, Putin has spent basically all his international political capital to achieve this. The word of Russia is going to mean absolutely nothing internationally, and they're going to get sanctioned in pretty much every quarter....well, I hope it was worth it. Maybe in 10 years Russia can again start to earn their way back into the EU's and the West's good graces. But for now, no one is going to trust a damn thing they have to say on anything.

I think the idea is that Russia does not need the West's good graces any longer.

[nenjin]

Yeah, I feel like absorbing Crimea is all but a foregone conclusion now unless Ukraine wants to open fire on Russia. Which would only confirm Russia's position that Crimean's are in danger.

Really though, Putin has spent basically all his international political capital to achieve this. The word of Russia is going to mean absolutely nothing internationally, and they're going to get sanctioned in pretty much every quarter....well, I hope it was worth it. Maybe in 10 years Russia can again start to earn their way back into the EU's and the West's good graces. But for now, no one is going to trust a damn thing they have to say on anything.

I think the idea is that Russia does not need the West's good graces any longer.

Except everyone knows that nationalistic bullshit. Just like it would be if America said they didn't need the rest of the world.

[Svarte Troner]

are those seriously chetniks

[mainiac]

I think the idea is that Russia does not need the West's good graces any longer.

I'm sure that will be very comforting to them when they are in recession next year.

[XXSockXX]

Really though, Putin has spent basically all his international political capital to achieve this. The word of Russia is going to mean absolutely nothing internationally, and they're going to get sanctioned in pretty much every quarter....well, I hope it was worth it. Maybe in 10 years Russia can again start to earn their way back into the EU's and the West's good graces. But for now, no one is going to trust a damn thing they have to say on anything.

Pretty much this. Also his allies will be worried too, if Belarus or Kazakhstan one day should have a regime change that Moscow doesn't like, they get an idea what might be happening.

are those seriously chetniks

They claim to be. Nobody knows how many exactly are in Crimea, maybe less than a dozen. Their government is not happy about that.

I think the idea is that Russia does not need the West's good graces any longer.

I'm sure that will be very comforting to them when they are in recession next year.

The EU has suspended talks about a new gas pipeline now. There are also talks about getting more independent from Russian gas, which will not go fast, but should hurt the Russian economy pretty bad. For now the next wave of sanctions (visa restrictions /account freezing) is meant to hit the oligarchs, who should have some influence with Putin. According to our Minister of Defense 15% of Russian GDP depends on Europe alone, while it's only 1% the other way round, so the sanctions should have some effect.

[GreatJustice]

Yeah, I feel like absorbing Crimea is all but a foregone conclusion now unless Ukraine wants to open fire on Russia. Which would only confirm Russia's position that Crimean's are in danger.

Really though, Putin has spent basically all his international political capital to achieve this. The word of Russia is going to mean absolutely nothing internationally, and they're going to get sanctioned in pretty much every quarter....well, I hope it was worth it. Maybe in 10 years Russia can again start to earn their way back into the EU's and the West's good graces. But for now, no one is going to trust a damn thing they have to say on anything.

Sanctions strike me as unlikely considering how many Western countries are dependent on Russian energy imports. Certainly would hurt the Russians quite a lot, but it'd hurt the Europeans just as much, if not more.

[XXSockXX]

Sanctions strike me as unlikely considering how many Western countries are dependent on Russian energy imports. Certainly would hurt the Russians quite a lot, but it'd hurt the Europeans just as much, if not more.

Financial sanctions seem to be pretty much on the way if Putin does not want to negotiate.
Energy related sanctions are going to be problematic in the short term, but there are talks about that too. Poland's Prime Minister has criticised German dependence on Russian gas specifically, though I doubt that can be changed quickly with our ongoing energy reforms. At least in the long term Europe might go looking for different sources. There are talks in the US to jump in, but that does not seem to be easy either.

[Sergarr]

Too bad the only viable alternative source of power is nuclear. And guess who's the leader on that front.

[XXSockXX]

Too bad the only viable alternative source of power is nuclear. And guess who's the leader on that front.

I know. And the whole world is gonna follow our example, right?

[Guardian G.I.]

are those seriously chetniks

Reportedly they claim to be Chetniks. They said that they went to Crimea to help Russians in gratitude for their help during the war in Yugoslavia (Russian volunteers fought on the Serbian side in Croatia and Bosnia). I'm not sure if they are planning to help the Russians by doing what they have always done the best, though.

[10ebbor10]

Too bad the only viable alternative source of power is nuclear. And guess who's the leader on that front.

I know. And the whole world is gonna follow our example, right?

I dunno, Europe's pretty strong at nuclear stuff. Most of Russia's reactors are old Soviet remnants anyway. The reactors in Germany can and will be reactivated in short time if Russia cuts of the gas, so...

Edit: Anyway, the real threat for Russia are financial sanctions. Europe accounts for more than half the foreign investement in Russia.

[scrdest]

Eradicating gyros?

[Sergarr]

Too bad the only viable alternative source of power is nuclear. And guess who's the leader on that front.

I know. And the whole world is gonna follow our example, right?

I dunno, Europe's pretty strong at nuclear stuff. Most of Russia's reactors are old Soviet remnants anyway. The reactors in Germany can and will be reactivated in short time if Russia cuts of the gas, so...

Edit: Anyway, the real threat for Russia are financial sanctions. Europe accounts for more than half the foreign investement in Russia.

Going back on nuclear plants would be an incredibly unpopular decision. It'll be like saying "ok we didn't really knew what we were doing before we take everything back lol". I think the anti-nuclear forces are currently strong enough to overthrow quite a lot of currently ruling parties.