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[Knit tie]

Paranoia is unfortunately is very high right now here.

[misko27]

It'd be like two countries declaring war because they both want to do a surprise attack on the other, since they are both certain the other is about to declare war on them. Their paranoia is what caused it to happen.

In the period following the end of the Second World War and preceding the first soviet nuclear test, there was a small but vocal minority that advocated for a preemptive war with the USSR. Other examples include the attack on Pearl Harbor (which backfired spectacularly) and the Six-Day War (which was much more successful).

So is anything happening on the ground? I wouldn't have expected untrained militias to be so, restrained. Disciplined.

[mainiac]

I am currently sitting in Russia, and the social media is abuzz with nationalistic and anti-ukrainian sentiments.

Is anyone discussing the inevitable economic retaliation?

To give a ballpark here, Russia exports 350 billion dollars of natural gas and has a gdp of 2 trillion dollars.  Every 10% reduction in natural gas exports would mean a 1.5% decrease in GDP and Okun's Law tells us that we should approximate a 3% increase in unemployment from that drop.  So supposing exports drop by 20%, not unreasonable.  That's a really nasty recession in the making.  Now it's not that cut and dried, Okun's law doesn't apply to all sectors equally, imports would also be affected, etc. etc.  But the long and the short is that you guys have a pretty big issue looming there.

[Knit tie]

I am currently sitting in Russia, and the social media is abuzz with nationalistic and anti-ukrainian sentiments.

Is anyone discussing the inevitable economic retaliation?

To give a ballpark here, Russia exports 350 billion dollars of natural gas and has a gdp of 2 trillion dollars.  Every 10% reduction in natural gas exports would mean a 1.5% decrease in GDP and Okun's Law tells us that we should approximate a 3% increase in unemployment from that drop.  So supposing exports drop by 20%, not unreasonable.  That's a really nasty recession in the making.  Now it's not that cut and dried, Okun's law doesn't apply to all sectors equally, imports would also be affected, etc. etc.  But the long and the short is that you guys have a pretty big issue looming there.

A lot of the saner minds are preoccupied with this, yes, but the general pubic is more concerned with imagining how the russian marines are gonna stroll all over ukraine like the unstoppable engines of semper fidelic death and destruction they so very obviously are.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Do you remember why Russia genocided the Tartars and the other Black Sea peoples the other times they did so, Guardian?

And let's not forget that Russia has much more recent genocide in Chechnya.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Spoiler: speaking about neo-nazies (click to show/hide)

That is Gubaryov. Now arrested Russian agent that tried to overthrow local government in Donetsk region and create Crimea-like situation

[10ebbor10]

It'd be like two countries declaring war because they both want to do a surprise attack on the other, since they are both certain the other is about to declare war on them. Their paranoia is what caused it to happen.

In the period following the end of the Second World War and preceding the first soviet nuclear test, there was a small but vocal minority that advocated for a preemptive war with the USSR. Other examples include the attack on Pearl Harbor (which backfired spectacularly) and the Six-Day War (which was much more successful).

Don't forget the first World war.

I am currently sitting in Russia, and the social media is abuzz with nationalistic and anti-ukrainian sentiments.

Is anyone discussing the inevitable economic retaliation?

To give a ballpark here, Russia exports 350 billion dollars of natural gas and has a gdp of 2 trillion dollars.  Every 10% reduction in natural gas exports would mean a 1.5% decrease in GDP and Okun's Law tells us that we should approximate a 3% increase in unemployment from that drop.  So supposing exports drop by 20%, not unreasonable.  That's a really nasty recession in the making.  Now it's not that cut and dried, Okun's law doesn't apply to all sectors equally, imports would also be affected, etc. etc.  But the long and the short is that you guys have a pretty big issue looming there.

A lot of the saner minds are preoccupied with this, yes, but the general pubic is more concerned with imagining how the russian marines are gonna stroll all over ukraine like the unstoppable engines of semper fidelic death and destruction they so very obviously are.

Then again, the majority of that export goes to Europe. And the EU isn't known for making swift decisions, especially not when several countries are 100% reliant on Russian gas.

Also, the EU will have to replace it's natural gas production by gas from other sources, and Russia can then simply sell it's gas to people who previously bought it from Europe's new suppliers. Only difference is raising infrastructure costs.

[DJ]

Ethnic tensions are a genie you can't rebottle. I don't think Milosevic originally planned to commit genocide, he was just trying to prevent Yugoslavia from falling apart and keep all of it under his control. But using ethnic issues for that made the whole thing spiral out of control, and you just gotta ride out that wave when it gets rolling or somebody more nationalistic will replace you. Putin is using the same justifications, and I think it's very likely it'll have the same results (well, minus open warfare, because balance of power is too stacked in Russia's favor).

[burningpet]

"Evidence surfaces suggesting Pro-EU Bloc in Ukraine behind snipers that fired on protestors"

http://tavernkeepers.com/evidence-surfaces-showing-pro-eu-bloc-in-ukraine-behind-snipers-that-fired-on-protestors/

http://www.vm.ee/?q=node/19352

Can anyone read estonian and confirm that the estonian government acknowledged that leaked phone call and allegations as authentic?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Yep it is authentic. But it's nothing but discussing rumors

[burningpet]

Am i the only who can hear only static when paet speaks?

Edit:

Here's part of the leaked video without the static that, at least for me, completely blanks Paet:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573923/Estonian-Foreign-Ministry-confirms-authenticity-leaked-phone-call-discussing-Kiev-snipers-shot-protesters-possibly-hired-Ukraines-new-leaders.html#v-3297826421001

And UR- Rumors? heh

[MonkeyHead]

Daily Mail - that alone leads me to doubt the story.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

And UR- Rumors? heh

Yes, rumors. Estonian foreign minister retold to Ashton what he heard from one activist.  What the problem?  What does it prove?

[scriver]

Do you remember why Russia genocided the Tartars and the other Black Sea peoples the other times they did so, Guardian?

And let's not forget that Russia has much more recent genocide in Chechnya.

Indeed, but I was especially referring to how past regimes has viewed groups of different ethnicities as a direct threat to their strategic interests in the region.

But yeah, I guess too should put a "though there's nothing pointing at the Russian state being behind it" disclaimer on it so people don't assume I am jumping to conclusions. But it's obvious some group is preparing for something, and it probably song be very nice.

[Sheb]

Plus, even though the video is apparently authentic, the Estonian FM actually misunderstood the doctor he talked with. I posted a ling earlier with an interview of that doctor, but basically she didn't have access to death policemen (so she doesn't know if the injuries were the same) and she frankly doesn't know who was behind the snipers.