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[XXSockXX]

The video is authentic, but the content is only a rumour, that has been debunked after an interview with the doctor (scroll down here).
In a twist of irony Moscow has asked the OSCE to investigate the Maidan shootings, you know, the same OSCE observers that have now several times been refused access to Crimea, last time with warning shots.

More interesting about these leaked phone calls is how they are strategically leaked as a part of the information war. There are now 3 leaked calls, the Nuland-Pyatt call (Americans complaining about the EU), the Schmid-Tombinski call (EU complaining about Americans) and the Paet-Ashton call (with a rumour that seems to confirm Putins view of the revolution). Each time they were recorded professionally, leaked through Russian channels and accompanied by a political message from the Kremlin. It's no surprise at all that the secret service bugs calls, but the pattern of what calls are leaked and how they are leaked is obviously not a coincidence.

[Zangi]

Holy cripes... I finally made it here.  Read everything.

Since we once again bring up rumors of snipers being on the side of protesters...  I'll dig this thing up from earlier...  It seems convincing to me.

Decent analysis of the recent shootout. Has some hardly provable suggestions at the end, though.
Not recommended for children or sensitive people.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

http://rutube.ru/video/93802748ac84d98b69294da71162d03f/

What shoot out?
Between the various debates going on here I must have missed the news.

*Belated answer* There was no shoot-out, just snipers having a field day.

[martinuzz]

I wonder if the Allies will go to war before or after the invasion of Poland this time.
Also curious to see if China can make it to Pearl Harbour.

[Owlbread]

The USA has warned Russia that they must not annex Crimea or that will close the door to diplomacy. Exactly what that means I do not know. I don't think Obama knows either.

Some pro-Ukrainians at a rally in Crimea have been beaten up by pro-Russian fellows with clubs. Around 100 pro-Russians, to be precise, against the 200 pro-Ukrainians at the rally.

There's also some pretty distressing stuff coming from the Tatars who have, until now, been pretty much helpless while Ukrainians and Russians duke it out over their land. Some militant Tatars have approached the great former Tatar leader and statesman Mustafa Dzhemilev and informed him that they will wage a jihad against the Russians if they are annexed, one that seems to be of an Islamist colour.

“We have Islamists, Wahhabis, Salafis . . . groups who have fought [with the opposition] in Syria,” he said in an interview in Simferopol, the Crimean capital. “They say: ‘an enemy has entered our land and we are ready’.

“We can’t stop people who want to die with honour,” he said, making he clear he did not endorse a jihadist campaign.

It's not that far fetched, either.

Links already exist between some Crimean Tatars and the global Islamist militant network, with a number of Tatars having fought with the armed opposition to President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. One of them, under the nom de guerre “Abu Khaled”, carried out a suicide bombing in Aleppo last year.

So remember, though you guys were dismissing Ukrainian Ranger for talking about wanting to take a few Russians down with him if the country is invaded fully, there's a fair amount of Tatars that are thinking that way right now. There's only a handful of them but my god if you bring Islamists into this (Russia technically started that by including mean, battle-hardened, pretty much Islamist Chechen forces as part of their security force deployment in the area) then they will take this crisis to a different level of hell.

[Helgoland]

This was to be expected, though, wasn't it? Hell, I get paranoid when Russia starts expanding, and my people weren't massacred by the Russians. And they can't exactly pull another Chechnya, either...

[Dutchling]

Has there been any indication that this will not turn into a Cyprus 2.0?

As in, the world will do absolutely nothing >.>

[scriver]

The Cyprus situation was different, though, given that the Turks there were actually being persecuted. So much that the Swedish troops stationed there, despite being harried by "misfire" from the Turkish army, still broke orders in order to help the Turkish civilians.

[Svarte Troner]

Sorry, I haven't read the whole thread yet. But слава україні and death to enemies, etc. Have people beaten the svoboda=nazis=entire revolution=nazi coup thing to death yet? Posting to watch in any case.

[mainiac]

So remember, though you guys were dismissing Ukrainian Ranger for talking about wanting to take a few Russians down with him if the country is invaded fully,

If the Russians invaded western Ukraine at this point, NATO would declare war.  The only way Russia could get away with that is if Ukraine shot first.

[XXSockXX]

Former German Chancellor Schröder has finally brought himself to saying that his friend Putin is violating international law in Crimea. Interestingly he now thinks that he himself did that same thing with Serbia, which is why he doesn't want to condemn Putin. (It's interesting because a) the comparison was brought up in this thread too and b) that was a very controversial thing here back in the 90s, with the first case of German military fighting since WW2. Of course at the time he had another opinion and (I'm being mean here) no Gazprom job yet.)

His assessment that the EU is partially responsible for this, with the EU association agreement and the Russian customs union being mutually exclusive rings true though, that seems like a miscalculation now, if the particular Ukrainian situation is considered.

The USA has warned Russia that they must not annex Crimea or that will close the door to diplomacy. Exactly what that means I do not know. I don't think Obama knows either.

Since they are barely talking now, probably economic sanctions I guess. Europe continues to talk with Putin, but it looks like he is going to push the referendum through. The West will consider it illegal, but for practical purposes this will not matter much. What happens then will remain to be seen. Economic sanctions will be hard on Russia, but hard on Europe too. Not only because of oil and gas, but because account freezing and wider visa restrictions will negatively affect Russian investments and tourism, which is quite important in some regions.
Since even the US need Russia (to resolve the stuff with Syria for example), it is at worst possible that - if this remains limited to Crimea and bloodless - this could be forgotten like Georgia all over again in a few years, just with a longer phase of sanctions and a new low in international relationships.

The Tatars thing - that's bad, but I guess that was to be expected.

I have also read that there is a (so far tiny) contingent of Serbian Pan-slavic militia in Crimea, to support the Russians. (Serbia's official position is against Crimean secession, because of their stance on Kosovo. They plan on punishing these guys when they come back.)
That goes to show though, there is a lot of potential for conflict there, even if it does not come to anything with the military.

There are also reports about Russians travelling to Eastern Ukraine to support pro-Russian protests there.
All in all lots of worrying signs that the situation is not exactly stabilizing. With so many different armed groups involved now, a lot could go wrong.

If the Russians invaded western Ukraine at this point, NATO would declare war.  The only way Russia could get away with that is if Ukraine shot first.

I highly doubt that, as bad as that would be for Ukraine. I don't know what would happen, but military intervention is not on the table. Even the Republicans have made that clear. It just is too risky, you can't start a war with a nuclear power, hoping that they only use conventional weapons if you do the same. You think the Russians will just sit there and hope the rockets and bombers flying at them won't have nukes in them, so they will respond accordingly to keep it a fair fight? That's madness, no way that's gonna happen.

[Sergarr]

Tartars

Are we talking about the citizens of the Greek Tartar?

[XXSockXX]

Tartars

Are we talking about the citizens of the Greek Tartar?

You need to give me a chance to cover up my mistakes via editing. 
Done. It...ehm...never happened and if you say otherwise, that is just propaganda.

[Sergarr]

Tartars

Are we talking about the citizens of the Greek Tartar?

You need to give me a chance to cover up my mistakes via editing. 

Don't worry, though. You're not the first to make that mistake in this thread.

[burningpet]

“We have Islamists, Wahhabis, Salafis . . . groups who have fought [with the opposition] in Syria,” he said in an interview in Simferopol, the Crimean capital. “They say: ‘an enemy has entered our land and we are ready’.

I have seen an extensive interview with a group of extreme belgian islamists, done by a reporter that presented himself as an extreme muslim, that said they will "liberate" the holy grounds of belgium, that belgium should adopt sharia and that there are a lot more of them than the belgians aware of.

I bet that if you go look for it, you will find those statements almost all throughout europe.

Those are brainwashed idiots who have been trained to fight, know nothing but fight, have no purpose other than fighting and have no other use by their makers other than dying. when their fighting will be over in the middle east, they will start fighting someplace else, because that's what they were trained and brainwashed for, it doesn't matter if its Crimea or Belgium.

So if any ukrainian thinks, even for a second, that those people share his cause or aspirations, he is dead wrong. they may share a temporary enemy, but that's about it. also, if you think those nut cases will only fight because of the russians annexation, or that its the russians fault they will start their jihad, you need to further educate your self on that matter.

[Guardian G.I.]

A Russian Twitter account posting images of the "polite people" (nickname for Russian troops in Crimea in the Russian internet). Really interesting stuff.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Kebab removers Serbs.






and so on and so forth...

Also, according to BBC, Russian troops are currently digging in on the Perekop isthmus.

(first link fixed)