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[XXSockXX]

So you basically have two days of unidentified gunmen in control of Crimean government building before that invitation goes out. Given the gunmen were aligned with if not actually Russian that does throw the legitimacy of those appeals into question.

The legitimacy of a lot of things is questionable here. Unfortunately that also goes for the government in Kiev.

There were calls for Russian assistance in Crimea earlier, we talked about it in the thread many pages ago. For example this article mentions pro-russian politicians calling for Russian help, it was nothing official though.

Of course the calls for help, legitimate or not, don't really justify what's going on now.

[Knit tie]

The calls for help may or may not be genuine, but it's obvious that Putin has used them as a very unconvincing yet still technically legitimate excuse for establishing his control over crimean government. From then on he could make said puppet government declare its intent for annexation and invade with proper troops.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

The 'official' one is illegitimate. Plain as day.

What constitutes a 'technically legitimate excuse'?
Was there official anti-rus-crimean rhetoric?
Were they being rounded up?
Were they being shot?

[Bouchart]

Well, the fact is that Russian troops are in Crimea and as far as I can tell there's no combat, so on some level they must have been wanted.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

There's been no fighting because the Ukraine/crimean troops were specifically ordered not to fight in fear of making an excuse for a much larger 'intervention' by the hundred-thousand-plus russian troops exercising right on the border.

[miljan]

The 'official' one is illegitimate. Plain as day.

What constitutes a 'technically legitimate excuse'?
Was there official anti-rus-crimean rhetoric?
Were they being rounded up?
Were they being shot?

So russ need to send few masked ones to kill few of them, so it looks more legit and than to invade? Hey, they are not USA .

[Knit tie]

Well, there certainly is tension. Ukrainians are mobilising everyone and everything they've got and in many cases the soldiers are just standing there on the Crimea/rest of Ukraine border with guns, staring at each other.

EDIT: ninja'd

So russ need to send few masked ones to kill few of them, so it looks more legit and than to invade? Hey, they are not USA .

If there's one thing I am willing to thank Putin for, it's that he never actually outright commits mass murders. Repression? Yes. All the other underhanded tricks in a dictator's arsenal? Yes. But he never sends people to concentration camps or just has them shot like Stalin did, aside from occasionally having some guy die of radioactive isotope poisoning.

[XXSockXX]

The 'official' one is illegitimate. Plain as day.

What constitutes a 'technically legitimate excuse'?
Was there official anti-rus-crimean rhetoric?
Were they being rounded up?
Were they being shot?

Nothing really bad happened, except that there were some clashes between pro-Maidan Tartars and pro-Russian protesters in Crimea. Basically a lot of people in Crimea don't accept the government in Kiev. Said government also almost repealed a law which makes Russian a 2nd official language, which was a rather bad signal.
Technically Yanukovych is still President, so the government in Kiev is illegitimate on constitutional grounds. The West has basically accepted that government, Russia has not.

[miljan]

There's been no fighting because the Ukraine/crimean troops were specifically ordered not to fight in fear of a making an excuse for a much larger 'intervention' by the hundred-thousand-plus russian troops exercising right on the border.

Or there is actually support that they be there.Don't forget military desertion,and unrest and pro russian protest also in that region.
The fact is there is support for them, it's blind to think otherwise.

[XXSockXX]

There's been no fighting because the Ukraine/crimean troops were specifically ordered not to fight in fear of a making an excuse for a much larger 'intervention' by the hundred-thousand-plus russian troops exercising right on the border.

Or there is actually support that they be there.Don't forget military desertion,and unrest and pro russian protest also in that region.

From what correspondents are saying, there is indeed support from the Russian population in Crimea. The Ukrainian and Tartarian minorities are not very happy of course.

[miljan]

Anyway, I am 90% sure there will not be any war. If there was a chance for it, it would already happen when the chances where the biggest on the beginning.

[GrizzlyAdamz]

@miljan

In what incident are you implying the USA did that? Was it recent?

Miljan, they were ordered to resist responding to russian 'provocations'. That means no shooting, that means stay in your base.
That does not mean they're happy jubilant russia-lovers.

What military desertion, aside from the unsuccessful naval chief?

Funny story: boki here is outraged when the west intervenes in countries that are slaughtering their own civilians with tanks and aircraft, and you cite 'unrest and pro-russian protests' as grounds for an invasion?


Also, socks, so that's what the 'language' thing was eh? Yeah that seems stupid. Trying to appease the right-wingers?

[Bouchart]

There's been no fighting because the Ukraine/crimean troops were specifically ordered not to fight in fear of making an excuse for a much larger 'intervention' by the hundred-thousand-plus russian troops exercising right on the border.

We're talking about a very fluid situation with "fog of war" and all that entails, along with emotions running high.  If there were not popular support, there probably would have been skirmishes by now, regardless of any standing orders.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Ukrainians are mobilising everyone

Nope, only military specialists are called up. Plus volunteers are coming in recruitment offices but majority get turned down with their data noted and "we'll call you later if you'll be needed"

[olemars]

Just listened to the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN (who has had the job since 2007) at the post-UNSC-meeting press conference, and he made a convincing case for why the language law issue had nothing to do with the russian language at all, that it was right to repeal it and replace it with the originally intended law (which was to align ukrainian language protections with EU frameworks), but the timing was stupid.

Also listened a bit to the Moldovan representative to the UNSC, and apparently Putin is ramping up meddling around their territory as well.

e: Also no support for Putin to be found from the Chinese.