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[Ukrainian Ranger]

Anyway, with the protest spreading across various cities, I don't think it won't be long before this further escalates and the police starts to randomly fire into crowds to disperse them. This will cause the EU to break of all relations with Ukraine, giving Russia it's victory, and a new satellite state.

This is  the worst case scenario. And I think it is quite likely. But what Russia will get in that case - a very unstable puppet.

A European counter-intervention? That's seems less likely than the UN -- scrap that, a League of Nations counter-intervention xD
(and yes, I am aware of Russia's position in the UN)

Yeah, I consider EU intervention nearly  as likely as aid from Alpha Centauri

[XXSockXX]

Here's a livestream from Kiev. (It says it's on 24/7, don't remember if this was already posted somewhere else.)

kyivpost.com in English

Also, likelihood of Russian military intervention if things get out of hand? Likelihood of European counter-intervention? Likelihood of a War of European Unification? =P

I'd say a Russian intervention - should things really get out of hand that much - is far more likely than any European or International one. In case of such a thing the EU will quickly react with immediate discussion. Still things would have to go very bad even for Russia to intervene, that would cause a big diplomatic crisis.
Not in the current (unpatched) version

[scrdest]

Anyway, protestors are occupying buildings, the opposition certainly isn't in control anymore, and it doesn't look like Yanukovich is going to give up. The west is gradually proceeding through their list of sternly worded letters, but isn't going to do anything else. (Not that there's much that they can do, but anyway.)

Anyway, with the protest spreading across various cities, I don't think it won't be long before this further escalates and the police starts to randomly fire into crowds to disperse them. This will cause the EU to break of all relations with Ukraine, giving Russia it's victory, and a new satellite state.

Wait, is this an actual civil war now?

Not really. Far to few deaths to be considered one. Common definition is that a civil war must have at least 1000 deaths per year of conflict, and unlike at least 100 on each side.

Not going to happen. The whole point of the protesters are that they are pro-EU while the government is more pro-Russia. The Ukraine becoming a Russian satellite scenario would only lead to exacerbation of the protests. If anything, EU would only apply sanctions towards the officials, such as denying Visas to them, while I know that Poland is giving refuge to some of the protesters.

The way it develops, it kind of reminds me of Syria, except with the lines more clear-cut, since the absolute worst we could hypothetically get on the protesters side are nationalists, which, while unsavory, are not terrorists.

[Helgoland]

Hmmmm... So there would be fewer objections to supplying arms (except pacifism, non-interventionism, pro-Russian sentiments and similar shite, pardon my French) if a civil war actually breaks out. Still, I don't see that happening...

UR, what's the party affiliation of espresso tv? (Link below) I've been wondering ever since they had some Radio Svoboda stuff on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrZcAsPKK74&pxtry=2

[XXSockXX]

If anything, EU would only apply sanctions towards the officials, such as denying Visas to them, while I know that Poland is giving refuge to some of the protesters.

Last thing I read was that the EU was considering freezing the Ukrainian government's bank accounts, which wouldn't hurt the population as much as outright economic sanctions. Basically what they are already doing with Belarussian officials in terms of visa and bank accounts.

[10ebbor10]

Anyway, protestors are occupying buildings, the opposition certainly isn't in control anymore, and it doesn't look like Yanukovich is going to give up. The west is gradually proceeding through their list of sternly worded letters, but isn't going to do anything else. (Not that there's much that they can do, but anyway.)

Anyway, with the protest spreading across various cities, I don't think it won't be long before this further escalates and the police starts to randomly fire into crowds to disperse them. This will cause the EU to break of all relations with Ukraine, giving Russia it's victory, and a new satellite state.

Not going to happen. The whole point of the protesters are that they are pro-EU while the government is more pro-Russia. The Ukraine becoming a Russian satellite scenario would only lead to exacerbation of the protests. If anything, EU would only apply sanctions towards the officials, such as denying Visas to them, while I know that Poland is giving refuge to some of the protesters.

The satellite scenario takes place after the police opens fire on civilians on a large scale. At that point, an EU agreement will be completely of the table, depriving the protests of a point. (Well, there's still the protest against the governement, but nothing Euro-related anymore.) Honestly, at the point where the governements starts gunning down protestors at random, I doubt they still care about a diplomatic solution.

[Helgoland]

The EU generally objects to the government that does the firing, not to the country in which that firing takes place. If anything, it would give the EU a stronger incentive to support the protestors, as they will under no circumstances turn to Russia after their victory.

[10ebbor10]

Sadly, agreements have to be made with the government, not with the people.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

UR, what's the party affiliation of espresso tv? (Link below) I've been wondering ever since they had some Radio Svoboda stuff on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrZcAsPKK74&pxtry=2

Espresso TV is owned by Batkivshina member and this channel is operating without any license. Failed to get one before protests started.

Sadly, agreements have to be made with the government, not with the people.

That is solved by recognizing some new group as a new government, isn't it?

[XXSockXX]

Sadly, agreements have to be made with the government, not with the people.

That is solved by recognizing some new group as a new government, isn't it?

And I guess that would happen if the government starts randomly shooting into the masses. They seem to be at least somewhat concerned about their credibility, otherwise they would not have apologized for that video of the police abusing a protester.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Red - Regional government buildings captured
Pink - Ongoing attack\blockaded
Grey - failed attempt

[Dutchling]

What exactly happened in those red areas? I assume anarchy/riots in government buildings but "captured" suggests something more organized.

Also, have you heard of any unrest near Sevastopol?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

What exactly happened in those red areas? I assume anarchy/riots in government buildings but "captured" suggests something more organized.

That means protesters inside governmental building with officials\police kicked out.

[Owlbread]

Are the regional governments independent of eachother or do they have a provisional government they now answer to?

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Are the regional governments independent of eachother or do they have a provisional government they now answer to?

We have rather weird situation.
Regional governments have two parts - one is elected at local elections another is appointed by president. With every year the ones appointed by the president got more and more power, turning elected mayors into nothing

Elected part of the regional governments is under opposition control by default, that's buildings of appointed governors are captured. Mostly that means that people recognize only elected local governments

While there are some talks about united provisional opposition government, one is not created.