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[Baffler]

Hey, I'm on your side - my criterion for a sufficiently strong German army is that it should be able, together with the Polish army, to at least fight the Russian army to a standstill in a conventional war. I don't like having to rely on the US, and I really, really dislike the prospect of having to rely on a Le Pen-led France.

It seems like every new thing I hear about Le Pen makes her and FN even more concerning than before.

[Kot]

Hey, I'm on your side - my criterion for a sufficiently strong German army is that it should be able, together with the Polish army, to at least fight the Russian army to a standstill in a conventional war. I don't like having to rely on the US, and I really, really dislike the prospect of having to rely on a Le Pen-led France.

That's actually possible, as long as they don't go full "война народная" and throw the whole army with reserves (fucking T-34s). In that case, they would simply trample everything with sheer numbers.

Also, concerning USA wunderwaffes...
F-35.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.

[Kot]

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.

The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.

[mainiac]

F-35.

F-22.

The point isn't that the money is spent efficiently.  The point is that so much money is spent that a few good weapons result despite the inefficiency.  Germany on the other hand spends it's money much more efficiently by being much less ambitious.

The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.

Reserves would be useless in a showdown between modern forces.  What would Russian forces do if French and German helicopters made it impossible for them to operate supply lines of trucks?  Walk their supplies in on backpacks?

[Culise]

I'd be astonished if a Russian invasion made it past Lithuania, much less all the way to Spain in an "early success," even if they had the advantage of complete and utter surprise.  Let's see, now, the Russian Armed Forces seem to have less than 500k personnel, including conscripts but presumably excluding mobilized reserves (mostly an assumption I make because that IISS number feels ridiculously low).  The Polish alone can match that if they mobilize their reservists, and you can bet that if Russia mobilizes, Poland will take a serious look at doing the same; there's just no other alternative than NATO for a Russian invasion that requires mobilization.  NATO as a whole, just their forces in Europe, has, if I recall properly (and I easily may not; this was basically from a discussion on the matter back when the Crimea was just heating up) something like 6:1 advantage in numbers over Russia.  I won't go so far as to say that reservists are useless, but saying that Russia will essentially be able to steam-roller from Narva to Gibraltar in the opening days of the war is a stunning leap of faith. 

No, any Russia-NATO conflict will be a border one, very probably without general mobilizations and conducted using available conventional forces.  Neither side will push too hard for fear of turning it nuclear.  You won't have Russian troops dining on the banks of the Seine, and by the same token, American forces won't be delivering freedom at barrelpoint in Moscow. 

[Ukrainian Ranger]

To win a large war one needs strong economy and strong allies. Unless I hear a good reason for China to join Russian side, I can't see Russia beating Germany+Eastern European allies (vs all NATO is not an option at all) in conventional warfare. Getting some early successes like WW2 Japan vs USA - yes. Total victory - nope.

That is IF German nation will choose to fight.

The problem is that Russia is powerful enough (of course considering they use all their power, draft the reserves, etc) to "early success" it's way through whole Europe, pretty much.

It is armchair general territory but....

Why do you think that they have enough battle ready weapon systems and soldiers to use them? Those wikipedia figures of Russia having many soldiers, tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft tell nothing about their real readiness level.

I am afraid that Russia will use nukes. I am not afraid that Russia will win a full scale conventional war against a country that has an actual army.

[Kot]

Reserves would be useless in a showdown between modern forces.  What would Russian forces do if French and German helicopters made it impossible for them to operate supply lines of trucks?  Walk their supplies in on backpacks?

Basically, the idea would be to defend the supply lines with real army, and send the reserves forward, in Soviet style. I'm conviced that if you used enough T-34s and other old shit, NATO forces in the area would simply not have enough dakka to defend the whole "frontline", and all those "outdated reserve shits" would still wreak havoc behind the actual army, they're still pretty killy. And if the allied go back to fight them, they have to give ground to regular Russian army.
Also, you're implying that French would be attacking supply lines instead of watching the battle, quickly shrinking in their rear mirrors?

It is armchair general territory but....

Why do you think that they have enough battle ready weapon systems and soldiers to use them? Those wikipedia figures of Russia having many soldiers, tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft tell nothing about their real readiness level.

Because, contrary to NATO equipment, you can take a WW2 Russian tank and get it running with little maintenance.

F-35.

F-22.

You do realize that instead of spending money on F-22, they decided to spend it on F-35 (they considered adding an ability to carry infantry in it, what)?

[smjjames]

You're forgetting the US military here, while it would take a bit to mobilize ground troops, you've seen how fast we mobilize the airforce. So, Russia would really only have until we get things rolling.

I could see NK using the distraction to attack SK or something though.

And yeah, this is deep into Armchair General General territory.

[Culise]

You're forgetting the US military here, while it would take a bit to mobilize ground troops, you've seen how fast we mobilize the airforce. So, Russia would really only have until we get things rolling.

I could see NK using the distraction to attack SK or something though.

And yeah, this is deep into Armchair General General territory.

Well, I suppose if Russia's committing national suicide in this hypothetical, the DPRK can't allow themselves to be out-crazied. Just as a heads-up, though, the DPRK are actually outnumbered by the ROK nowadays, and they're much more focused on the static defense due to their strategic priorities.  In a one on one fight, the ROK wins, though Seoul also loses.

But now, we're talking about a hypothetical in which the Russians are pulling out WW2 tanks (that is, not even T-55s, which are still on reserve status, but stuff like the IS-series and the T-34) out of storage (where? I don't even think the Russian government maintains official stores) and putting them on a modern battlefield in the hands of people who have never trained on anything older than the T-55, where the regular army is being held back and reservists are being used as the main thrust of the invasion, where logistics are completely irrelevant (because of said regular army protecting the ever-loving daylights out of them), where the French and Germans are both actively refusing to fight because reasons, all to facilitate an outcome where the Russians will be in Spain before America gets its boots on.  I...I'm not going to say what I think, except that I think we've left even Armchair General Station in the dust.  I'm just going to step out now. 

[Erkki]

Russia would very likely have enough trouble against a (unfortunately for now still theoretical) alliance of Finland and Sweden in an offensive war. War isnt just about numbers against numbers with some kind of qualitative factors...

I'm still more worried about Putin mostly in what kind of general economical and stability consequences within Europe he and his buddies may manage to create in addition to the whole Ukraine affair.

When it comes to expanding Russian/Putin's powerbase, the easiest targets are likely in Asia.

[mainiac]

You do realize that instead of spending money on F-22, they decided to spend it on F-35 (they considered adding an ability to carry infantry in it, what)?

And once again you miss my point.  There are more F-22 in existance then any other 5th generation for a long time.

[Ukrainian Ranger]

Back to the real world

Barrel of Brent oil = $47
Barrel of WTI oil = $41

What the hell is happening with oil prices?

[Erkki]

Back to the real world

Barrel of Brent oil = $47
Barrel of WTI oil = $41

What the hell is happening with oil prices?

I noticed the same last week... Actually also look at all material prices for the last 6 months or so.

China?

Only things not going down are Ruble to Euro/USD exchange ratios.

[Kot]

You do realize that instead of spending money on F-22, they decided to spend it on F-35 (they considered adding an ability to carry infantry in it, what)?

And once again you miss my point.  There are more F-22 in existance then any other 5th generation for a long time.

There would be more if USA focused on making realistic Wunderwaffes that actually work, instead of jet bomb trucks capable of carrying people in the bomb bay.