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[Owlbread]

Opinion polls have been coming and going re: Britain leaving the European Union for a while now. A recent one from the pollster Panelbase, commissioned by the Sunday Times, shows a Scotland/England+Wales divide that's quite striking:

Respondents in England and Wales:

Yes 49%
No 51%

Respondents in Scotland:

Yes 66%
No 34%

In this case "Yes" means Britain should stay in the EU, No means Britain should leave. It should be noted though that the poll was conducted prior to the Greek crisis so god knows what it is now. It's also very strange that the Yes lead is so high in Scotland because historically things have shown Scots are only mildly pro-EU and tended to have a much narrower lead for "Yes". Maybe things will narrow a bit following the shafting of Greece because from my experience public opinion here is very much on their side.

If the result in the EU referendum is anything close to this and somehow UK-wide the No vote wins and the Yes vote wins in Scotland then that will effectively force a second independence referendum, one that will be fought along very different lines than the previous.

[smjjames]

Meanwhile, in Donetsk...

Why does the Russian (or perhaps Novorussian) tank have a flower? It should have a dove with an olive branch to make more sense, or maybe a dove with a trojan horse in it's beak, I dunno, lol.

Edit: Not to bash the artist, but why is the Ukranian flag so faded in comparison to the Russian one?

@owlbread: Maybe the Scottish respondents think that Scotland will stay while England+Wales do leave?

[mainiac]

Doesn't get said enough:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/17/the-euro-is-a-disaster-even-for-the-countries-that-do-everything-right/

Although there is one exception.  It's been very good for Germany.

[MonkeyHead]

Opinion polls have been coming and going re: Britain leaving the European Union for a while now. A recent one from the pollster Panelbase, commissioned by the Sunday Times, shows a Scotland/England+Wales divide that's quite striking:

Respondents in England and Wales:

Yes 49%
No 51%

Respondents in Scotland:

Yes 66%
No 34%

In this case "Yes" means Britain should stay in the EU, No means Britain should leave. It should be noted though that the poll was conducted prior to the Greek crisis so god knows what it is now. It's also very strange that the Yes lead is so high in Scotland because historically things have shown Scots are only mildly pro-EU and tended to have a much narrower lead for "Yes". Maybe things will narrow a bit following the shafting of Greece because from my experience public opinion here is very much on their side.

If the result in the EU referendum is anything close to this and somehow UK-wide the No vote wins and the Yes vote wins in Scotland then that will effectively force a second independence referendum, one that will be fought along very different lines than the previous.

The UK leaving the EU would also probably be the thing that finally makes Wales kick-start its own independence movement. I suspect moves would be afoot to piggyback onto SNP-led Scottish moves to dissolve the UK. The population here damn well knows what a good deal we get in terms of EU cash and the massive effect losing it would have. I strongly suspect the England and Wales data here is strongly influenced by the English weight of numbers.

[Owlbread]

I certainly hope that something like this could kickstart the Welsh independence movement but the Welsh do seem very, very resistant to Plaid Cymru's charms and Welsh Labour have such a firm grip on things. In the event of England pulling us all out of the EU, how would Welsh Labour respond?

I'm also concerned about UKIP doing better in South Wales and places like that. They'll probably end up in the Welsh Assembly in 2016, just as at least one of them will probably get into the Scottish Parliament next year too.

[Loud Whispers]

Doesn't get said enough:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/17/the-euro-is-a-disaster-even-for-the-countries-that-do-everything-right/

Although there is one exception.  It's been very good for Germany.

It's from the start been about one thing: Political unification of Europe under one Euro, one Nation and one Reich. Not the Nazi or Kaiser one mind you, no more like Charlemagne. Take over everything, knock down any annoying cultural stuff that doesn't fit well with you, create lots of trade going one way and when you're done have everything fall to pieces.

I certainly hope that something like this could kickstart the Welsh independence movement but the Welsh do seem very, very resistant to Plaid Cymru's charms and Welsh Labour have such a firm grip on things. In the event of England pulling us all out of the EU, how would Welsh Labour respond?
I'm also concerned about UKIP doing better in South Wales and places like that. They'll probably end up in the Welsh Assembly in 2016, just as at least one of them will probably get into the Scottish Parliament next year too.

Bueno

Also found this gem:
Speaking in Merthyr Tydfil, Welsh leader Nathan Gill said the party would scrap the UK Treasury's Barnett formula, claiming it favoured Scotland. I still don't get the preoccupation with seeking independence only to walk right into a great big Empire that cares not for the lands on its continents let alone the ones in its peripheries. Interestingly after the Scottish referendum Welsh favour of independence dropped to 3%, an all time low, and 49% added they wanted devolved powers.
Really all I think needs to happen for Welsh independence to kickstart is for the Greens to murder Tories and KIPS and the big bit on the end - Scotland to become an EU province. And also stop the vote share going --->
Based Welshman more Euroskeptics than here, heh

[Owlbread]

Also found this gem:
Speaking in Merthyr Tydfil, Welsh leader Nathan Gill said the party would scrap the UK Treasury's Barnett formula, claiming it favoured Scotland.

The Barnett formula debate is a bit of a sketchy area because we do receive more from it than other countries/regions in the UK, but that's because we contribute far more than they do per head and also we don't directly receive everything through Barnett that we pay in taxation. That said it is unfair that we do receive more, hence why I advocate independence to correct this injustice. It makes things a lot simpler.

I still don't get the preoccupation with seeking independence only to walk right into a great big Empire that cares not for the lands on its continents let alone the ones in its peripheries.

I think the important thing for people who ask this question to understand is that right now we're already a part of the EU, we're just looking for equal representation with similar countries of our size. Whether we should not be a part of the EU is an entirely different debate. I would also greatly question the fairness of calling the EU an "Empire" when the UK government is doing what it's doing re: ignoring and even actively working to deny the realisation of the democratic wishes of the Scottish people. Never mind "English votes for English laws", the Tories blocking our devolution proposals using English MPs shows we don't even have Scottish votes for Scottish laws in Westminster. There will always be a difference between having one's independence eroded, as in the case of Greece, and being an annexed region of a unitary state as in our case.

Interestingly after the Scottish referendum Welsh favour of independence dropped to 3%, an all time low, and 49% added they wanted devolved powers.

I think if you're going to have a multi-choice thing you're always going to have a very low level of support for Welsh independence. Many Welsh nationalists don't think Wales is ready for independence yet, that's why they want more powers so Wales can be better prepared for the inevitable.

[MonkeyHead]

Many Welsh nationalists don't think Wales is ready for independence yet, that's why they want more powers so Wales can be better prepared for the inevitable.

This. We know that the nature of our economy rules out going on our lonesome just yet. However, if the UK leaving the EU would necessitate going it alone to retain the EU funding that keeps our economy ticking over, that all changes. Who from though I do not know. PC would want such a move, but do not speak in a language that resonates with the industrial south - literally, at times. The big 3 would obviously not want such a split, for their own reasons.

[SirQuiamus]

Doesn't get said enough:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/17/the-euro-is-a-disaster-even-for-the-countries-that-do-everything-right/

Although there is one exception.  It's been very good for Germany.

Gud readin, dat.

It made me realize, for the first time, how the Euro is practically reproducing the very same pegged-exchange-rate policy that pushed Finland into a deep depression in the early nineties – should be obvious, but funnily enough, that has never stopped Finnish economagicians from being all gung-ho about the hard currency. Devaluation is a dirty, dirty word, obviously, but there's no denying that overly expensive € is hurting Finnish exports like a bastard.

...and Shoggoth-Merkel knows how much Germany has benefited from Dark Euromancy.     

[Helgoland]

Funny, around here the old saying about the Euro being Versailles minus the War is gaining popularity again...

By the way, do you guys even realize how stuff like

It's from the start been about one thing: Political unification of Europe under one Euro, one Nation and one Reich.

or all the Nazi comparisons from the Greek governments sound in German ears? It's kinda like mocking an alcoholic, telling them they must've been drinking for them to behave like they do, even though they've been dry for seventy years. It kinda makes you wave your right to appeal to 'European solidarity'. And I say that as the probably most rabid EU integrationist around here.

[Loud Whispers]

Oi don't edit out the bit where I said not the Nazi one or the Kaiser one

*EDIT
I don't even know what you're referring to but if you're going to Godwin yourself it's best not to end your sentences with waving other people's rights to appeal to Europe

[SirQuiamus]

The integrated Eurozone is like an extravagant luxury hotel without a roof. The construction work will be finished any day now, soon enough, no doubt, but in the meantime people are getting wet. (Some people are living in nice and cozy tents, though.)

...but I'm not saying that we should bulldoze the hotel into the ground: First we need more tents, and then we need a goddamn roof.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Oi don't edit out the bit where I said not the Nazi one or the Kaiser one

"I believe.../pol/ are...right about the...future." -LW 2012

[miauw62]

>implying they aren't :^]

[Loud Whispers]

Oi don't edit out the bit where I said not the Nazi one or the Kaiser one

"I believe.../pol/ are...right about the...future." -LW 2012

Oh god, I'm Hitler.

MetalSlimeHunt did nothing wrong
#remember the facepunch