Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

A

[RedKing]

It's beginning to look plausible for a total sweep north of Hadrian's Wall. 

I'm doing some number-crunching to work out just how big of a swing this is, and who the real losers are, at least for the Scottish seats.

Spoiler: Fascinating results from Ceredigion (click to show/hide)

This is the Lib Dems' lone seat so far, but look at that swing, and where it went.

Party        2010            2015    Change
Lib Dem       50.03%   35.85%   -14.18%
Plaid Cymru  28.27%   27.65%   -0.62%
Labour          5.78%           9.66%   3.88%
UKIP                2.55%          10.23%   7.68%
Cons       11.56%   11.02%   -0.54%
Green        1.82%           5.58%   3.76%

LD supporters sort of bifurcated with about equal amounts going left to Labour and Green as did right to the UKIP.

[Nick K]

They have votes, but the SDLP (I think it's them at least) abstain from all Westminster votes on the grounds that the NI membership of the UK is invalid, so any seats they hold are informally discounted from the total needed for a majority.

The DUP are basically the Irish version of the Tea Party by my understanding and are offering support to the Tories.

Sinn Fein are part of the progressive alliance of the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru.

EDIT: Of the seats currently declared the Labour party has more seats counting the progressive parties, but pretty much all those seats were secure ones. 

Sinn Fein don't take their seats in parliament, I believe because they refuse to pledge allegiance to the queen. I think SDLP take theirs.

I think Labour tend to look good early on because they win more urban seats and the tories win more rural ones. AFAIK Rural ones take longer to count because they have to ship the ballots around the place.

[Grim Portent]

It's beginning to look plausible for a total sweep north of Hadrian's Wall. 

I'm doing some number-crunching to work out just how big of a swing this is, and who the real losers are, at least for the Scottish seats.

Well it was a 34.5% swing for Kirkcaldy to swing to the SNP from Labour, so that's probably one of the biggest.

[RedKing]

Huh. We have the opposite effect in the US. Rural districts report in first because there's fuck-all anyone living there, while urban centers take much longer to count. Which tends to give a Republican lead and later a Democratic surge (which invariably leads to right-wingers claiming that somebody rigged the election and "stole" it from them when they lose).


Labour picks up Ealing Central from the Tories.

[Nick K]

I think UK constituencies are set up to have roughly the same population, seeing as they get 1 MP each so having some with fewer people would lead to their votes having more importance than in more populated constituencies. That means that rural ones tend to be huge because they have to cover a lot of land to get the same number of people as a chunk of somewhere like London.

[Grim Portent]

They have votes, but the SDLP (I think it's them at least) abstain from all Westminster votes on the grounds that the NI membership of the UK is invalid, so any seats they hold are informally discounted from the total needed for a majority.

The DUP are basically the Irish version of the Tea Party by my understanding and are offering support to the Tories.

Sinn Fein are part of the progressive alliance of the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru.

EDIT: Of the seats currently declared the Labour party has more seats counting the progressive parties, but pretty much all those seats were secure ones. 

Sinn Fein don't take their seats in parliament, I believe because they refuse to pledge allegiance to the queen. I think SDLP take theirs.

I think Labour tend to look good early on because they win more urban seats and the tories win more rural ones. AFAIK Rural ones take longer to count because they have to ship the ballots around the place.

The SDLP more or less function as Labour MPs as I understand it. Long standing arrangement between the two parties.

[Owlbread]

Lib Dems hold Northern Isles by a baw hair. Shetland backed SNP but Orkney was too Lib Dem. Only non SNP seat thus fsr.

[Descan]

Of course, I've been reminding myself all day that if the SNP win 15 seats it'll be the best result they've ever had. If they win 25 it'll be an earthquake, if they win 35 it'll be incredible (the first time they've ever won a Scottish Westminster election), if they win 45+ it'll be astounding...

We're now at Code Incredible

[Grim Portent]

Lib Dems hold Northern Isles by a baw hair. Shetland backed SNP but Orkney was too Lib Dem. Only non SNP seat thus fsr.

Aaaw. 

I was half hoping for a full SNP house.

[RedKing]

Lib Dems finally won a 2nd seat, but they're still behind Plaid Cymru (3). SNP now has 33 of Scotland's 59 seats. These are tectonic shifts in voter behavior. 25-40% gains for the SNP, almost all of it at the cost of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In fact, I think what's as remarkable as the trouncing Labour is getting in Scotland, is the absolute extinction of the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. In most, if not all, Scottish constituencies, the Liberal Democrats are coming in *fifth*, behind the UKIP. (Or in Midlothian, SIXTH behind both the UKIP and Greens).

The identity of the Liberal Democrats as a "third party" is probably over. They'll still have a bit of relevance because of the handful of seats (as in, you will probably be able to count them on one hand) but I think it's a very real question to ask if they will stand for election as an organized party in 2020.



EDIT: I picture Owlbread shaking his fist to the north and yelling "Ye 'r dead to me, Orkneys! DEAD!" 

EDIT #2: Labour steals back Burnley from the Lib Dems.


EDIT #3: For all the hand-wringing that Labour is probably going through right now (Scottish Labour, certainly, will undergo a purge in leadership after a bloodbath like this)....they're not doing badly. They've held their seats and they've nibbled a few away here and there (Burnley from the LibDems, and Ealing Central from the Tories). I still think there's a good shot at a Labour-SNP coalition. The ones who are really getting pasted in all this (inside and outside Scotland) are the Lib Dems, which undercuts the current coalition, not Labour.

[Grim Portent]

I doubt Labour are thinking entirely sensibly. They've lost a huge number of seats to the SNP and that's got to be demoralising.

[Graknorke]

UKIP won a seat. And are a very much right-wing party pushing for electoral reform. That's something you don't see every day.

[GreatJustice]

UKIP won a seat. And are a very much right-wing party pushing for electoral reform. That's something you don't see every day.

Generally speaking, electoral reform is supported by whoever would get the most votes out of it. In this case, with the current system UKIP is getting one seat despite having twice as many votes as the LibDems (4 seats) and very slightly less than the SNP (45 seats!!).

[RedKing]

Updated totals:

Labour -- 105
SNP -- 45 (We are now at DEFCON ASTOUNDING, repeat DEFCON ASTOUNDING)
Conservative -- 80
Liberal Democrats -- 4
UKIP -- 1
Plaid Cymru -- 3

[Grim Portent]

Salmond's an MP again.