There was a big TV debate today in Scotland, the first one in the campaign thus far with politicians as senior as Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland and Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-Union Better Together campaign. Despite Salmond being the favourite to win the debate he actually lost to Darling (beyond reasonable doubt) due to his weakness on his answers regarding currency. This is something that never should have happened because Darling is an idiot. Darling certainly didn't come out of it very well (he became quite hysterical and never shut up about currency for the whole debate, effectively shutting it down), but he won. Salmond countered and held his own, but this was a debate that by all accounts should have had Darling "holding his own", not Salmond.
I think Mr. Salmond's general ineffectiveness and incompetence in this debate (again, very unusual - this is not the Salmond the Yes campaigners know) is very discouraging for our overall prospects. I think what has happened over the last few months, the last year perhaps, as I've watched men like Mr. Salmond fuck things up when they really shouldn't be fucking up at all, is that I have lost faith. I have lost faith in the idea that we have something up our sleeve to climb the polls - a rabbit to pull out of the hat. For the years in this campaign I have believed wholeheartedly that there must be some big strategy, some plan. Instead I now believe we are actually flying blind, and the only thing we have on our sides is time and chance. So yes, I have lost faith - all I have now is hope, which is a pretty odd feeling but probably for the better. Faith is an unhealthy thing to have, especially towards politicians.
Right now according to polling analysis we are sitting at 44% in average support rankings with 6 weeks to go until the vote. In my opinion it's more like 46%, given that the 44% number takes into account biased pollsters that have us very far back into the mid-30s. It is very possible to gain 4% even in something like the last week, or a few days before the vote, due to how many people will leave their decision to the last minute (I have encountered this going door-to-door).
If 44% is indeed correct, then we need to climb 6% (something that is quite doable) or gain 240,000 votes in total (Scottish electorate is 4 million). With 240,000 votes, Scotland could be an independent country. That's all it takes. That's like America's independence depending on the political will of
Madison, Wisconsin. We're talking about very small numbers of people making a hell of a lot of difference. All of this is still possible - the problem is that's all it is. Possibility, there's no plan, no rabbit to pull out of the hat. As I said earlier all I can do is hope that chance is on our side, because that's all we have.