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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 833746 times)

FearfulJesuit

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5430 on: January 11, 2014, 09:30:40 am »

Blacks and latinos are on average quite conservative, especially when it comes to religion.
First of all, religion=/=politics, especially not in secular states like this one. Blacks I'll give you on social issues, with the caveat that it doesn't matter much given the GOP's staggering dedication towards doing absolutely everything to drive away black voters. Latinos are a different story altogether. I've written before on how the perception of Latinos as conservative is just lazily lumping all racial minorities together and is one of the largest misconceptions in modern political science. American Latinos are quite liberal. For example, there's solid support for legal aborition among Latinos, and that's one of the shakiest issues for liberals. And if we're talking about religion, Latinos are solidly aligned with the Catholic Church, which is hardly a bastion of conservatism anywhere in the Americas. Old-School European Catholicism this ain't.

If I may put forth an alternate viewpoint, I find it equally likely that by 2050 or so the Democrats may become the anti-abortion party, not the Republicans. As Steeled has noted, the base to make it happen is there; and it will be much, much easier to push restrictions on abortion when you can quite honestly claim to be speaking for the welfare of the children, are not in a twist about contraception, and are not misogynistic. It's only in America that abortion access is seen as permanently shacked up with the rest of "liberalism". Consider Argentina: very heavily on the economic left, probably the most welcoming country on earth for trans and gay people. Abortion is illegal in Argentina. Russia? Economically so-and-so, socially quite reactionary- abortion abounds.

Personally I'm pro-choice, but lightly and rather reluctantly (not counting cases where the baby has a horrible, horrible defect that would cause death or is a danger to the mother, or rape). My opinion is that abortion is in essence an unanswerable question- e.g. it boils down to "Is a fetus a person?" If yes, then shouldn't we arrest women who have abortions on charges of murder? If no, then when does it become a person? There's no particular reason to choose any arbitrary trimester, and a late-term fetus is not particularly different from a newborn; for that matter, as incubator technology improves, the age when a fetus must be considered viable and thus a person has been varying? You can take "a fetus is not a person" to its logical conclusion, but then you're Peter Singer, who advocates the legalization of infanticide, and surely even most pro-choicers would agree that killing a pregnant woman should carry a heavier penalty than killing someone who is not pregnant. In most pro-choice formulations the assumption that is working underneath the surface is "a fetus is a person when its mother wants it". There's only one problem with this: that's an utterly ridiculous way to define whether or not something is alive, and if it's the case, again, what's the difference with newborns?

The bottom line is that for any given problem what we want is a solution that is practical, egalitarian and ethical. It is very likely that for abortion no such solution exists. The only real political solution is to improve contraceptive technology and access to it so that you really can say (barring an unviable fetus, or rape) "you should have used better protection, this is a problem of your own making and you need to carry to term." (And maybe not even then; complications always crop up.)

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I wouldn't could out the republicans just yet, Obama isn't quite as popular as he once was.
While that's true, Barrack Obama is legally prohibited from seeking another term as President of the United States of America. He's not shaping up to be a Reagan, Carter, or Bush. Aside from being the first black President and passing the ACA, I see him being quickly forgotten.
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If the GOP manages to find a candidate that isn't a RINO they'll probably win 2016. I say this as a Libertarian.
That all depends on what a RINO is to you, given that the word is thrown around almost as freely as "terrorist". If you mean a socially liberal, fiscally conservative member of Congress with some experience and respect under their belt, then sure, they have a chance in 2016. If you mean someone like Santorum, or Bachmann, or Cruz, or any other far-right nutjob, then I'll just be over here dying of uncontrollable laughter.

Obama is probably going to play the Nixon (sans criminal behavior, at least any that would get him impeached) to someone's Reagan. He'll have set the stage for someone from the progressive left to take office. If America votes in a GOP candidate next turn, they'll very quickly regret it (as they did with Carter).
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 09:44:03 am by FearfulJesuit »
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Sheb

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5431 on: January 11, 2014, 09:35:58 am »

Nah, in Europe, abortion access is also seen as a progressive thing.
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mainiac

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5432 on: January 11, 2014, 10:26:56 am »

Robert Gates is a national treasure... in comedy!

Quote from: an excerpt from Gate's new memoir
I was put off by the way the president closed the meeting. To his very closest advisers, he said, "For the record, and for those of you writing your memoirs, I am not making any decisions about Israel or Iran. Joe, you be my witness." I was offended by his suspicion that any of us would ever write about such sensitive matters.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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kaijyuu

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5433 on: January 11, 2014, 12:15:53 pm »

* kaijyuu boggles.
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For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

PTTG??

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5434 on: January 11, 2014, 12:56:05 pm »

I have a feeling that people are really underestimating the Democrats' ability to select absurdly terrible candidates.
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Dutchling

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5435 on: January 11, 2014, 12:59:18 pm »

They selected a black guy in 'Murica and won so honestly I doubt it matters :P
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5436 on: January 11, 2014, 01:16:58 pm »

The mediocrity of the Democrats is a failing, but is often outweighed by the Republicans selecting candidates that are full-blown political suicide.
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misko27

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5437 on: January 11, 2014, 02:08:14 pm »

Anyway, I have no idea where the Democratic nominee race is, beyond that Hillary Clinton will never sleep again and Elizabeth Warren is trying not to be "The other female democrat".
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GreatJustice

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5438 on: January 11, 2014, 02:40:57 pm »

Of course, Obama being known as "the guy who passed the ACA" could potentially end up not being such a good thing for the Democrats in the long run. Furthermore, the demographic advantages may very well be temporary; Latinos are largely Democratic, and there are plenty of Latino immigrants, but a point sometimes missed is that, as they become more wealthy, Hispanics tend to not identify as such anymore and begin voting for the Republicans again. Just look at the Tejanos; after several generations, many don't even identify as Hispanic (despite being as Hispanic as a recently arrived immigrant from Mexico), are Protestant, and vote Republican just like any cattle rancher. With the youth, meanwhile, a lot of that advantage can be traced to the actions of Bush. IIRC there are various polls that put the Democratic Party's support from Millennials as coming primarily from "old" Millennials, while the "young" Millennials are far less reliable. The ACA doesn't especially help in these respects, either.

In other news, 10th graders suspended for 180 for "gang activity".
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Owlbread

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« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 02:48:56 pm by Owlbread »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
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mainiac

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5441 on: January 11, 2014, 03:03:56 pm »

IIRC there are various polls that put the Democratic Party's support from Millennials as coming primarily from "old" Millennials, while the "young" Millennials are far less reliable. The ACA doesn't especially help in these respects, either.

So the ACA is costing the party support with the age group that it's most popular with?

Of course, Obama being known as "the guy who passed the ACA" could potentially end up not being such a good thing for the Democrats in the long run.

The backlash for the ACA is already baked into the current political landscape, brah.

Hispanics tend to not identify as such anymore and begin voting for the Republicans again.

I'm sorry, are you saying there was a point in the past when they ever did vote Republican?
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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GreatJustice

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5442 on: January 11, 2014, 04:03:32 pm »


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So the ACA is costing the party support with the age group that it's most popular with?

You'd better hope that 56% opposition isn't coming from the "most supportive" demographic.Looking at the subset of "older vs younger" doesn't help, either.

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The backlash for the ACA is already baked into the current political landscape, brah.

That's reactionary "Damn Obama!" backlash, not "This law is broken and is wrecking our healthcare system!" backlash. If the ACA is a miserable failure, and it sure isn't shaping up the way it was pitched in 2010, then we're looking at a completely different political landscape.

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I'm sorry, are you saying there was a point in the past when they ever did vote Republican?

The Tejanos certainly did/do. That's sort of irrelevant to the overall argument, though. If it makes you feel better, you can ignore the "again".
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5443 on: January 11, 2014, 04:09:34 pm »

I will remind everyone, yet again, that we are in no position to judge the effects of the ACA yet. It has existed as a law with meaningful effects for a grand total of 11 days now.
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

mainiac

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Re: FJ's Murrican Politics Megathread 2: So dysfunction. Much Congress. Wow.
« Reply #5444 on: January 11, 2014, 05:26:40 pm »

The Tejanos certainly did/do. That's sort of irrelevant to the overall argument, though. If it makes you feel better, you can ignore the "again".

That's not actually supporting your point.

The world isn't a morality play of light and darkness and things that are good for that side establishes it's strength like LOTR.  That a demographic shift has happened does not indicate that a completely unrelated demographic shift is going to happen in an appreciable timeframe.

You come into this thread time and time again saying "republicans yay!" (oh wait sorry, you are a "libertarian" not republican) and then act like were stupid when we point out that you are nothing but a cheerleader.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 05:28:31 pm by mainiac »
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
mainiac is always a little sarcastic, at least.
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