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Ted Cruz

7 (6.5%)

Rick Santorum

16 (14.8%)

Michelle Bachmann

13 (12%)

Chris Christie

23 (21.3%)

Rand Paul

49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107

[LordSlowpoke]

Why are we using RWW almost exclusively for updates here? Just entertainment?

because we secretly believe to be the only true christians of the most niche denomination to ever exist

except not so secretly because i just told you.

* LordSlowpoke slips into a pink skirt and skillfully bourrées out of the thread

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Why are we using RWW almost exclusively for updates here? Just entertainment?

Because I'm subscribed to them, this is the best month they've had in a long time, and I'm sure at least some of you are addicted because I started posting it. The crazy overfloweth.

[misko27]

While you guys point and laugh at the crazies, here's a update:

John Boehner's Last Stand:

• John Boehner rejected a plan forming in the Senate, under the logic that if the shit was about to hit the fan and the currently-n-creation House plan was the only one available the Senate would have to pass it.
• Boehner is struggling to create a plan that will get a obvious "win" for Republicans, still be acceptable to Democrats, and still be acceptable to the Tea Party, who demand more anti-Obamacare parts of his bill bill.
• Leaders of both parties in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi, leader of the House Democrats, called the bill a non-starter for various reasons, including removing Congressional officials Health coverage, and doing too much to Obamacare.

The Senate defuses a bomb:

• Harry Reid, leader of the Senate Democrats, and Mitch McConnell, leader of the Senate Republicans, are hashing out a deal that would fund the government through Jan 15th, raise the Debt Ceiling to Feb 7th, slightly reduce the Sequestration by maybe $11 Billion, and have minor changes to Obamacare, including delaying of a tax for 6 months and ensuring people have to verify their income to receive certain benefits.
• McConnell is trying to be the adult in the Republican Party, attempting to avoid both a complete rout or abject surrender, but his bill bothers Republicans farther to the right.
• Talks are now waiting on whether the House passes their bill successfully. If the don't, McConnell has a strong ability to push the bill as the last, best option to save the day. If they do, McConnell (who is running for re-election and faces a challenge from the right) would be forced into a poor position, where he would either attempt to force Reid into accepting it and risk default, or pass it anyway with conservatives breathing down his neck.
• If the deal is struck in the Senate, Boehner would face enormous pressure to pass, since he would effectively personally "own" the default, along with his party. If he adheres to conservatives in his wing, he won't. If it goes up to a straight House Vote, it is considered likely to pass with moderate republican's support.

The rest of the world watches:

• Stocks march their way downward as jittery markets brace for a default.
• Some Tea-Party groups have struck a more conciliatory tone in the face of a Default, though others have only grown more stubborn.
• Polls say that while both parties will suffer, the GOP would face the brunt of it, and could lose the House even if the nation doesn't default.
• Obama remains the bystander with the biggest Mega-phone, essentially.
• People really don't like Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is now the face of the Tea-Party inspired disruption, and everyone who knows him and isn't a supporter hates him. People from Mike Huckabee to Newt Gingrich denounce him, and he is nowhere to be seen regarding negotiations.

What a Default would mean:

• Apparently, it's not actually "rocks fall, everybody dies" but more like "earthquake, dominoes fall, then everyone dies". While there would be a initial backlash that would send shock-waves if the Ceiling came and went, the US would not immediately default.
• Reaching the limit of their borrowing authority would leave the Fed with approximately 30 Billion dollars, a significant amount, but not long-lasting given how much the US spends.
• If the US ran out, They woudl start paying bills as they can, with a prioritization towards bond-holders to avoid "true" default.

[LordSlowpoke]

i'm unwilling to believe that timetable for two reasons:

1. the us treasury would be silly to not hold 50 billion in liquid assets at all times

2. it's the timetable for the 2011 shutdown, which was already avoided

[misko27]

i'm unwilling to believe that timetable for two reasons:

1. the us treasury would be silly to not hold 50 billion in liquid assets at all times

2. it's the timetable for the 2011 shutdown, which was already avoided

Oh my, silly me. I couldn't get current one due to a paywall. But, I'll see what I can do.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Apparently, it's not actually "rocks fall, everybody dies" but more like "earthquake, dominoes fall, then everyone dies". While there would be a initial backlash that would send shock-waves if the Ceiling came and went, the US would not immediately default.

That is not entirely accurate. When (and, in fact, if) the US would reach a true default all depends on the actions of the Treasury. 00:00 October 17th is the point in which they can no longer guarantee it won't all come crashing down. It may come crashing down immediately. It could wait any period of time and then come crashing down. Or the Treasury might be able to roll exploding 20's and keep it from happening indefinitely by pulling off something they have never even tried to do before, by prioritizing debt payment over all other activities. Of course, this will also mean an indefinite cession of all other Treasury actions as well, lest poking the economic Jenga tower cause a default.

It has been pointed out before that the Tea Party rather ironically is putting their faith in government by believing the Treasury can handle it.

[misko27]

The relevant article

Nov 1st is the absolute latest, according to most economists: The US would have to pay over $58 Billion dollars total on that one day alone, more then they are projected to have at all.

Apparently, it's not actually "rocks fall, everybody dies" but more like "earthquake, dominoes fall, then everyone dies". While there would be a initial backlash that would send shock-waves if the Ceiling came and went, the US would not immediately default.

That is not entirely accurate. When (and, in fact, if) the US would reach a true default all depends on the actions of the Treasury. 00:00 October 17th is the point in which they can no longer guarantee it won't all come crashing down. It may come crashing down immediately. It could wait any period of time and then come crashing down. Or the Treasury might be able to roll exploding 20's and keep it from happening indefinitely by pulling off something they have never even tried to do before, by prioritizing debt payment over all other activities. Of course, this will also mean an indefinite cession of all other Treasury actions as well, lest poking the economic Jenga tower cause a default.

It has been pointed out before that the Tea Party rather ironically is putting their faith in government by believing the Treasury can handle it.

1. the us treasury would be silly to not hold 50 billion in liquid assets at all times

But we played the game of "Pull money out of internal accounts" already. The 17th is when that is over. They can't make money from nothing, and nothing is what they will be allowed to do. All they have at that point is around 30 billion, period. They can't borrow, they can't take money from other accounts, that is all the government will be running on.

[Sergarr]

What parts of the goverment are running at this point?

[alway]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24543581

[Loud Whispers]

The thing is, Boehner isn't getting out of this alive, politically speaking. Let's make that clear- if he fails to avert a default, he's still ruined.

And so, facing unimaginable ruin, the GOP folded and let Obama have his health care system. The public enjoyed access to affordable insurance. Employers benefited from lower staff turn over and absentees due to sickness. The county grew and prospered, and the boost in democrat popularity led to other reforms too! Gay marriage was legalized on a federal level, environmental laws came into effect, education reform saw the US leading the world in science, engineering, literature and other high arts.

Six week later the stars were taken off the flag and replaced with a hammer and sickle, and the cruel, evil, Muslim dictator Obama ruled the Union of Soviet Socialist Democrats forever more.
The end!

Texas then secedes from the Union, nullifying the affordable care act there and becoming the last bastion for freedom in the western hemisphere

God bless the land of the cold and flu.

[misko27]

Oh well the big news is here, but I might as well say what the links say: Fitch has put the US government's credit under review.


Anyway, the House will vote on their bill tonight, and if it doesn't pass, the Senate will immediately get on that bill of theirs and see if they can avoid procedual hurdles. If it does, well, I think we may be looking at a post-17th solution.  McConnell wiill have to buck his party to support the Senate, and Ted Cruz is more likely to vote against the procedural speed vote, which he has specifically avoided commenting on. Either of those could put us well past the deadline.

[Loud Whispers]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/marc-thiessen-the-obamacare-implosion-is-worse-than-you-think/2013/10/14/7efa4e74-34d7-11e3-be86-6aeaa439845b_story.html
This guy thinks Obamacare's going to implode. A bit dodgy, cites the daily mail of all things as a source, worth reading nonetheless.

[lue]

Oh, Christ. FearfulJesuit is counting by hours now.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/marc-thiessen-the-obamacare-implosion-is-worse-than-you-think/2013/10/14/7efa4e74-34d7-11e3-be86-6aeaa439845b_story.html
This guy thinks Obamacare's going to implode. A bit dodgy, cites the daily mail of all things as a source, worth reading nonetheless.

I only skimmed it, but I can understand the idea that the ACA is doing terribly, and is possibly in danger of failing. However, my brain tends to shut off whenever people moan about the websites not working as proof it's going to fail, and that's probably some of the motivation for just skimming it .

[Loud Whispers]

5:56 America time, senate has chosen not to vote yet.

[RedKing]

The House is trying to vote on a proposal, and it's rumored to be a clean bill, no Obamacare-related provisions, no budgetary changes or caveats.

But they keep delaying the actual vote, which would seem to indicate that they don't have the votes to pass it.

Buckle up folks, we're going in....