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Poll

Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 832141 times)

Dutchling

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1650 on: July 04, 2013, 04:36:12 am »

Don't 20 percent of the Americans believe Elvis is still alive? American polls don't really surprise me anymore :P
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GlyphGryph

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1651 on: July 04, 2013, 08:19:25 am »

Most of these polls are unscientific. Remember that at LEAST 8% of Americans, when polled, choose the answer they think is most amusing rather than the correct one. ;)
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Sindain

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1652 on: July 04, 2013, 01:26:32 pm »

Also, the articles says they polled 863 Americans, considering that is less then .000001% of the U.S population its pretty hard to say they had a large enough sample size to be credible   :P.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2013, 01:32:33 pm by Sindain »
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1653 on: July 04, 2013, 03:38:20 pm »

100% of statistics are misinterpreted and reported sensationally.
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I am surrounded by flesh and bone, I am a temple of living. Maybe I'll maybe my life away.

Santorum leaves a bad taste in my mouth,
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Frumple

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1654 on: July 04, 2013, 04:13:28 pm »

Untrue!

Some are never reported and/or interpreted.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1655 on: July 04, 2013, 04:14:20 pm »

Untrue!

Some are never reported and/or interpreted.

0% of statistics are made up on the internet.
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I am surrounded by flesh and bone, I am a temple of living. Maybe I'll maybe my life away.

Santorum leaves a bad taste in my mouth,
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10ebbor10

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1656 on: July 04, 2013, 04:17:38 pm »

Also, the articles says they polled 863 Americans, considering that is less then .000001% of the U.S population its pretty hard to say they had a large enough sample size to be credible   :P.
Well, thanks to statistics, the total population size doesn't matter that much.  The size of the poll does, and while it's fairly small, the error margin should be limited.
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Frumple

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1657 on: July 04, 2013, 04:36:38 pm »

Providing it's a representative sample, anyway.
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Bauglir

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1658 on: July 04, 2013, 04:37:52 pm »

Providing it's a representative sample, anyway.
Fortunately we can do a poll to see what qualifies as a representative sample in the eyes of the average American.
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“What are you doing?”, asked Minsky. “I am training a randomly wired neural net to play Tic-Tac-Toe” Sussman replied. “Why is the net wired randomly?”, asked Minsky. “I do not want it to have any preconceptions of how to play”, Sussman said.
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GreatJustice

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1659 on: July 04, 2013, 05:17:37 pm »

Also, the articles says they polled 863 Americans, considering that is less then .000001% of the U.S population its pretty hard to say they had a large enough sample size to be credible   :P.
That's not how statistics work.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1660 on: July 04, 2013, 07:02:30 pm »

Also, the articles says they polled 863 Americans, considering that is less then .000001% of the U.S population its pretty hard to say they had a large enough sample size to be credible   :P.
That's not how statistics work.

It's also entirely not how representative polls work but let's not split hairs and call the whole thing asanine, please. Unless you'd like to show me how a majority-republican group of 1k people having a 30% armed revolt sympathy is any way indicative of "Nearly 30% of Americans advocate for an armed rebellion"
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I am surrounded by flesh and bone, I am a temple of living. Maybe I'll maybe my life away.

Santorum leaves a bad taste in my mouth,
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GreatJustice

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1661 on: July 05, 2013, 01:18:38 am »

Also, the articles says they polled 863 Americans, considering that is less then .000001% of the U.S population its pretty hard to say they had a large enough sample size to be credible   :P.
That's not how statistics work.

It's also entirely not how representative polls work but let's not split hairs and call the whole thing asanine, please. Unless you'd like to show me how a majority-republican group of 1k people having a 30% armed revolt sympathy is any way indicative of "Nearly 30% of Americans advocate for an armed rebellion"

Okay, then they problem is that they picked an unrepresentative sample, an issue entirely different from having too small of a sample size.
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The person supporting regenerating health, when asked why you can see when shot in the eye justified it as 'you put on an eyepatch'. When asked what happens when you are then shot in the other eye, he said that you put an eyepatch on that eye. When asked how you'd be able to see, he said that your first eye would have healed by then.

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Morrigi

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1662 on: July 05, 2013, 01:42:01 am »

I'd like to point out that RT generally does their research and has a bias very far removed from Fox News.
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bulborbish

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1663 on: July 05, 2013, 11:43:33 am »

I'd like to point out that RT generally does their research and has a bias very far removed from Fox News.

At the same time, that seems a little weak, especially because you have the a few factors mentioned above.

The "Skew" factor: Some people just vote to troll the poll, mostly because they see it as a waste of time.

Reporter Bias: RT Times, regardless of what anyone wants to say, is extremely biased against the US government, as well with any governments that the US supports. Going to the original poll eliminates this issue, so most arguments will be coming from here.

Time Based Bias: The poll was conducted during a few "scandals" that went nowhere, placing it in a time where people suspected that the government was abusing it's power

Sample Size and Representation: Though they used a random sample, the fact that the sampled number is small means that any bias in the original sampling is amplified. At the very least, a population of a couple hundred million (since only adults were polled, as only voters were polled) needs a couple thousand to be a more representative sample.

   To add on to this, we need to see what other options were offered and their respective levels. We have Disagree, totaling 47%, Neither , totaling 18%, and Unsure, with 5%. 1% refused to answer. While one can assume that these are generalizations that are interpreted by the pollsters, the fact is that 70% of the country still is against armed revolution, ignoring other bias growing the pro-revolt side. With the margin of error 4.3%, I think it is safe to say that a Majority still follow this resolution.

Question Wording: The Question asked was worded;

"In the next few years, an armed revolution might be necessary to protect our liberties"

The question creates an image in the mind of the reader that it is a patriotic cause, rather than the more neutral

"In the next few years, an armed revolution might be necessary to stop government encroachment on liberties"

which at least removes the personal identifier "our" and the hot word "protect" which implies an active entity deliberately going after liberty.
(Note: Neither is very unbiased, but with the topic it is difficult to avoid)

[/statisticsrant]

Anyway, like I said, I don't trust RT, and I haven't (and won't) spend the time looking at the source of the poll to determine levels of Bias against the government.
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