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Bay12 Presidential Focus Polling 2016

Ted Cruz
- 7 (6.5%)
Rick Santorum
- 16 (14.8%)
Michelle Bachmann
- 13 (12%)
Chris Christie
- 23 (21.3%)
Rand Paul
- 49 (45.4%)

Total Members Voted: 107


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Author Topic: Bay12 Election Night Watch Party  (Read 840518 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1575 on: June 25, 2013, 09:42:27 am »

Literacy tests somewhat fell out on their own. They were originally used extensively after the Civil War because putting them under a Grandfather clause made it possible to use them on black people exclusively. When the Supreme Court found Grandfather clauses to be unconstitutional in 1915, most literacy tests were repealed as they would then start affecting illiterate white people as well.

As for constitutionality, for the reasons above it was never really challenged on a constitutional basis (it was upheld by the Supreme Court in the 50's, but only as a "not necessarally a violation" sort). If it was today, however, the Equal Protection Clause would make it unconstitutional to restrict voting based upon a literacy test. Various laws also currently restrict literacy tests to the point that it would be nearly-impossible to find a place you could both use it and disenfranchise people with it.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2013, 09:46:24 am by MetalSlimeHunt »
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Quote from: Thomas Paine
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palsch

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1576 on: June 25, 2013, 09:46:51 am »

The SCOTUblog plain English summary;
Quote
Today the Court issued its decision in Shelby County v. Holder, the challenge to the constitutionality of the preclearance provisions of the Voting Rights Act. That portion of the Act was designed to prevent discrimination in voting by requiring all state and local governments with a history of voting discrimination to get approval from the federal government before making any changes to their voting laws or procedures, no matter how small. In an opinion by Chief Justice John Roberts that was joined by Justices Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, and Alito, the Court did not invalidate the principle that preclearance can be required. But much more importantly, it held that Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act, which sets out the formula that is used to determine which state and local governments must comply with Section 5’s preapproval requirement, is unconstitutional and can no longer be used. Thus, although Section 5 survives, it will have no actual effect unless and until Congress can enact a new statute to determine who should be covered by it.
The formula was originally passed in 1966 as a counter to Jim Crow laws and so targets only those areas who had such laws in place. This was originally only supposed to be law for five years, but has been renewed by congress repeatedly without any changes. It's this formula that was found unconstitutional as opposed to the rest of the law. Section 5 (pre-clearance for such voting restrictions) remains on the books, but without the formula as to where it should be applied it simply isn't applied anywhere.

Theoretically congress could simply create a new formula or make section 5 universal. I have a feeling that the latter might be found unconstitutional as well, given some of the language I've glanced at so far, and any new formula would be political toxic waste. It would basically be a way of telling parts of the country they are too racist to be trusted.

So it effectively ends such pre-clearance altogether even as it says that such clearance might well be required and is theoretically constitutional. Nice trick there.

As for why such pre-clearance is important, imagine if a flat out illegal voting restriction is passed. To get it overturned you need to fight a court case. Unless you get very lucky that court case might take longer than the next set of elections. So such a law can easily have an effect on the outcome of an election even if it is then rapidly struck down. Given that states control voting regulations for federal elections held within their borders, such a law could easily effect who gets into federal office. And given some of the tricks that certain states have been trying over the last few years it's not a reach to imagine such a thing happening.


EDIT: First effect analysis I've seen; What this means in Texas.

Basically Texas had two new laws - redrawing voter districts and voter ID - which had been pre-challenged under section 4/5 and were under appeal to the Supreme Court. At least the voter ID law can now be legally enforced despite the racial problems suggested by the challenges. It could still be retroactively challenged but the odds are very good that they would be in place during at least one election. The situation with the district maps is more complicated but at least one major hurdle has been removed.

EDIT 2: Texas is now looking to implement the voter ID law passed in 2011. This law had been blocked under pre-challenges that are now moot. Essentially the laws were already found to be illegal discrimination, but that doesn't matter until someone who is blocked from voting can bring a new case.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2013, 02:06:04 pm by palsch »
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misko27

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1577 on: June 25, 2013, 06:15:03 pm »

Oh this is bad.


Well then, um, shit. My fear of the Southern states sinking into federally unregulated Anarchy has increased tremendously.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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I am surrounded by flesh and bone, I am a temple of living. Maybe I'll maybe my life away.

Santorum leaves a bad taste in my mouth,
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1579 on: June 25, 2013, 10:04:17 pm »

Badness is dependent upon what happens next. To a degree, I do agree with SCOTUS' logic on Section 4 being outdated. A lot can and has changed in 60 years.

My solution would be that Section 5 review should apply nation-wide, but reviewed by district judges rather than DC judges.
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To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
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palsch

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1580 on: June 26, 2013, 09:03:29 am »

I'll be posting about what happened overnight in Texas later, but the DOMA case was just handed down literally right now.

5-4 decision, Kennedy writing.
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Amy Howe:
DOMA is unconstitutional as a deprivation of the equal liberty of persons that is protected by the Fifth Amendment.
BOOM. This is huge.
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"DOMA singles out a class of persons deemed by a State entitled ot recognition and protection to enhance their own liberty."
They didn't go with the weak but easy state's rights argument. This is the best outcome for this case.

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There is a "careful consideration" standard: In determining whether a law is motivated by improper animus or purpose, discriminations of an unusual character especially require careful consideration. DOMA cannot survive under these principles.
Going to need to spend some time with this later to fully decode it all.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2013, 09:07:00 am by palsch »
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Leafsnail

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1581 on: June 26, 2013, 09:36:24 am »

They also decided not to save prop 8, which means that gay marriage is legal in California again.  That part doesn't set any future precedent though.

e: Also it seems like Roberts and Scalia approved the prop 8 decision while Sotomayor didn't, which is sortof weird.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2013, 09:45:19 am by Leafsnail »
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palsch

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1582 on: June 26, 2013, 09:52:40 am »

The Prop 8 decision was a dismissal on standing. The plain English from SCOTUSBlog;
Quote
Amy Howe:
Here's a Plain English take on Hollingsworth v. Perry, the challenge to the constitutionality of California's Proposition 8, which bans same-sex marriage: After the two same-sex couples filed their challenge to Proposition 8 in federal court in California, the California government officials who would normally have defended the law in court, declined to do so. So the proponents of Proposition 8 stepped in to defend the law, and the California Supreme Court (in response to a request by the lower court) ruled that they could do so under state law. But today the Supreme Court held that the proponents do not have the legal right to defend the law in court. As a result, it held, the decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, the intermediate appellate court, has no legal force, and it sent the case back to that court with instructions for it to dismiss the case.
This dismisses everything that happened after the original court ruling striking down Prop 8, so the law is dead and there is no further action.

Four justices wanted to grant standing and decide the case on the merits. These were Kennedy, Scalia, Thomas and Sotomayor. None of them actually said anything about the merits in a dissent (and neither did any of those who ruled with the Chief against standing) so we still don't know where the court stands on the central questions, but at least four of them were ready to make that call.
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misko27

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1583 on: June 26, 2013, 10:37:08 am »

So it is good day?


Also, It appears a Texas Democrat Filibustered for as long as she could, but they brought her down under technical violations. However, their vote didn't follow legislative procedure, so we are for now good. We only have till next session though, or even till Gov. Perry calls a special assembly As someone said "The Democrats will win the battle but lose the war.
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Scoops Novel

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1585 on: June 26, 2013, 10:43:39 am »

Apparently Obama's making a hubbub about climate change: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/25/barack-obama-climate-change-strategy, including mentioning the Keystone pipeline and saying on it's future what the guardian paraphrased as "climate implications will be critical". Despite a positive reception from the "best speech on climate by any president" according to Al Gore the usefulness is in doubt, the first example to hand being this with a headline that will certainly be taken seriously (column heading aside) http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/25/obama-speech-climate-action-plan-disaster1.
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Sergarr

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« Last Edit: June 26, 2013, 10:49:16 am by Sergarr »
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penguinofhonor

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1587 on: June 26, 2013, 10:52:55 am »

Requiring that these things be in constitutions feels like it was designed to disqualify as many countries as possible rather than actually show the protections their citizens are given.
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10ebbor10

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1588 on: June 26, 2013, 10:57:14 am »

There are also quite a few errors on the maps actually. Also, the wording has been specifically chosen to make the UK seem good.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2013, 10:59:01 am by 10ebbor10 »
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Sergarr

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Re: FearfulJesuit's American Politics Megathread Two: Election Boogaloo
« Reply #1589 on: June 26, 2013, 10:59:12 am »

And it's BBC == UK. Just look at UK at those maps. They're blue almost on every one.

NINJAS GAH

EDIT: Derp, haven't noticed that.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2013, 11:15:22 am by Sergarr »
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