I hope they will never phase out keyboard and mouse. Its the only true way of using a PC, screw all that touch and voice shit. I want to type stuff into terminals by 2040.
I think keyboards will be around for a very long time. I use a touchphone, and the one thing I miss most is having a solid QWERTY keyboard on it. Don't mind outphasing mouse though. One day you'll be able to just point at the monitor to click, and scroll the screen by waving a finger, which probably works better for games like FPS and strategy as well.
I think the indie marketplace is going to start seriously hurting the sales figures at the big-name studios. Now that downloading is a viable alternative to physical media for distributing even multi-gigabyte games, the barriers to entry into the market are so low that any half a dozen like-minded hobbyists can get their game out there and have people pay money for it. Hopefully this will force the developers to raise their game the way a lot of film studios have.
I don't think big studios will last too long. They're way too expensive, and with guys like Toady and Notch around, it becomes apparent that you just need a really smart/dedicated person or two to make profit. And really nice graphics and interface will probably quadruple income. Plus tiny companies have been beating up the huge ones in a lot of IT fields, because they're quick to maneuver and keep up with new technology.
Professional game studios won't go extinct though, they'll just really shrink into 10 man teams or something. Probably around the size of Tropico's team.
Or they might go in the opposite direction, become really huge like the film industry, figure out a standard formula to churn out good games, and work on high quality games. I think EA has gone this direction, and The Sims 3 is as mainstream as it gets.
RTS and FPS are actually niche games. I don't enjoy them much, my girlfriend doesn't enjoy them much either, and they're so popular only because they're the first kinds of games most people are exposed to. They'll probably go the way of the platformer or adventure game, never dying out, but with a few indie people taking over the market.