Alright, I'm going to outline why I believe beyond a reasonable doubt that
Shakerag is town. In short, I don't believe his actions at the start of D2 make any sense whatsoever as scum, barring some item/class/mechanic that I'm not aware of.
Urist's post (reply 130 on page 9, if you're interested) does a good job of outlining the possibilities, I think. The scenarios are there, but no one as of yet has outlined the repercussions of each. As I see it, these are the possibilities:
1.) Shake is scum. He and another (unnamed) scumbuddy visited GG. One inspected, one killed.
2.) Shake is scum. He and his scumbuddy (either Urist or Tiruin) visited GG. One inspected, one killed.
3.) Shake is town. His inspect result is correct, and Urist and/or Tiruin killed GG.
If this is actually what they did, then hats off to them, because this is a GUTSY play. Think about it. There is no item that will tell you what actions were performed on another player, only one that says what actions were performed on you (Scroll of Knowledge). Whoever inspected know that the two scum, plus two more, visited GG. If either of those two tracked the people that visited GG (Monster Detection, Scrying), it's over for the scum: Shake posting an inspect list that's a man short implicates both himself and his scumbuddy. It's a VERY reckless gambit.
If Scenario 1 was reckless, this one is just downright stupid. At best, it's a 1-1 trade (townie lynched, then scum), at worst you just managed to hang your own man for some town cred. The only way this could work is if the townie gets lynched, and then you manage to talk them out of the nearly-guaranteed scum lynch. If you manage to pull that off without implicating yourself, you have a bright career in politics ahead of you.
Scenario 3: Self-explanatory. Shake is town, and his inspect result is correct.
Basically, it boils down to the fact that there's no way for Shake and a scumbuddy to both kill GG and track his suitors without exposing themselves to undue risk. I see no way around this unless there is an item which blocks detection of who you visit (which I do not see), or a scum pulled Boots of Lightning Speed and is the luckiest man alive. Scroll of Speed won't work, as it happens the next night, and this was N1.
Finally, the thing that seals the deal for me is that fact that he posted it IMMEDIATELY after N1 (the first non-bah post, actually). One would assume that the scum would be a bit more cautious and post their inspect result later in the day, to avoid the pitfalls I've outlined. Shake does not. He's the first man out of the gate, and he puts his information on the table.
This doesn't seem like something a scum would do to me. Please look over my reasoning, let me know if I've missed something or if you have drawn different conclusions.
Coming Up Tonight: Who I Suspect Killed GG. (Protip: It's Tiruin, in case I get daykilled)
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Topic: Roguelike Mafia 4 - Haste makes waste. [Game over!] (Read 109157 times)