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[Sirus]

Like I said, I'm terrible at comprehending this stuff. That's why I come here, so I can sort through the chaff and get the salient bits.

[RedKing]

Signs that Mr. Newt's Wild Ride might be coming to an end:

Gingrich cuts 1/3 of staff, fires campaign manager

Newt continues to say that he thinks he can be the "choice" candidate if it comes down to a brokered convention, while ignoring the fact that getting the nomination that way would make him even *more* unpalatable than he already is. But I'm suspecting Shel Adelson is about to cut off the money spigot to Newt's superPAC. Thing is, Adelson's more likely to switch over to Team Romney than Team Frothy.

[Nadaka]

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-paul-allege-dirty-tricks-santorum-supporters-223345588.html

In the Missouri caucus santorum supporters (who were in minority compared to Romney and Ron Paul supporters) delayed the caucus until enough Romney and Paul supporters left in order to win the advantage.

[mainiac]

Did not the honorable gentleman Paul previously express his intention to use exactly this sort of behavior in order to obtain a favorable outcome for himself in caucuses such as this one?  I can not begin to imagine the amount of chagrin that he must be feeling now that he finds himself not to be the instigator of this stratagem but instead the recipient of this load of Santorum.

[Heron TSG]

Spoiler: You mean to say that they're not playing far? (click to show/hide)

Unbelievable! Unexpected! Unpossible!

Yeah, saw that one coming.

[Aqizzar]

Romney and Paul: We am shocked, shocked that there's shenanigans going on in this election.
Caucuses: Your delegates, sirs.
Romney and Paul: Oh, thank you very much.  Now everybody out, at once!


So, earlier this week, in a not-at-all surprising repeat of a few months ago (and a few months before that), Newt Gingrich fired his campaign manager and half the staff.  Yesterday, rumors started abounding that Sheldon Adelson would be turning off the spigot to Gingrich's SuperPAC (twenty million dollars on a losing campaign, for those who get the reference).  Today, the Washington Times (a storied news source, to say the least) insists that Gingrich and Romney held a secret meeting over the weekend, possibly discussing a deal for Gingrich to drop out of the race.

Just in case, y'know, you didn't already think Gingrich's goose was cooked.

[RedKing]

And just in case you thought Newt was serious about "fighting the establishment". He just wanted a nicer chair closer to the bar.

So...polls.

Obama's approval rating? +6, -7 or a dead tie, depending on who you ask.

Some good news for the WH is that in hypotheticals against Romney and Santorum (pollsters are even bothering with Gingrich and Paul at this point), Obama continues to win against both in key states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. And Wisconsin is solidly blue (+10 or greater margin for Obama against all challengers). Florida is nearly up to that level, at +7 vs Romney and +10 vs Santorum. All that strident anti-immigration talk comes back to bite you in the ass when you have a state that is nearly 20% Latino.

Wisconsin continues to hold at around 8-10 points in favor of Romney. Losing winner-take-all Wisconsin will be a death knell for Santorum's chances. Couple that with an almost certain loss in winner-take-all Maryland, and Romney could bump his lead up by 80 delegates just like that. Santorum might hang around and win a few more flyover states like Nebraska, but barring a gaffe of monumental proportions I don't see Romney losing this thing. At this point, I don't even see it going to a brokered convention. Even if Gingrich drops out, I don't think enough of his camp diverts to Santorum to give him the edge he needs.

[Owlbread]

It's terrifying how much money has been spent on failed presidential nomination campaigns/presidential campaigns like Muskie's and Gingrich's when it could have been spent more wisely on stuff that could actually benefit the population.

[RedKing]

Well...it could be argued that *not* electing a Republican President benefits the population. So to the extent that Newt's campaign has prolonged the race and weakened Romney's support and cash reserves...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[mainiac]

And just in case you thought Newt was serious about "fighting the establishment". He just wanted a nicer chair closer to the bar.

So...polls.

Obama's approval rating? +6, -7 or a dead tie, depending on who you ask.

Some good news for the WH is that in hypotheticals against Romney and Santorum (pollsters are even bothering with Gingrich and Paul at this point), Obama continues to win against both in key states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. And Wisconsin is solidly blue (+10 or greater margin for Obama against all challengers). Florida is nearly up to that level, at +7 vs Romney and +10 vs Santorum. All that strident anti-immigration talk comes back to bite you in the ass when you have a state that is nearly 20% Latino.

It's kinda worrying though that the margin isn't wider.  Romney is getting dragged down by bad publicity from the primaries.  Once that is accounted for this looks too close for comfort.

On the other hand given how polarized the country is, a lead of that size might actually be pretty much the biggest lead possible.

[RedKing]

On the other hand given how polarized the country is, a lead of that size might actually be pretty much the biggest lead possible.

I would say this. There's an ABO (Anybody But Obama) sentiment out there to mirror the ABB feeling in 2004. There are enough people who are just deadset in their minds that our President is an illegal Kenyan crypto-Muslim Socialist who is out to destroy their way of life because he just hates freedom and/or is sent by the Devil himself. You're not likely to see much poll movement out of those folks, even if unemployment dropped to 1% and gas prices were at a $1/gallon. They're no longer concerned with real-world actions and results.

[Owlbread]

Well...it could be argued that *not* electing a Republican President benefits the population. So to the extent that Newt's campaign has prolonged the race and weakened Romney's support and cash reserves...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

True, but I know at least a million or so in that wasted bundle of cash could have been spent cleaning up the hospital I was born in. The conditions there are terrible and people have to bring their own blankets sometimes. MRSA and everything. Is 20 million really worth prolonging the race? Don't Santorum and Ron Paul already do that?

[RedKing]

Oh, I know. Problem being, there's so many things out there that need money, that your hospital probably wouldn't have seen a dime even if the money all went to good causes. For that matter, think of how much money gets spent building a new casino in Vegas. The money isn't exactly wasted, as it gets spent on salaries and printing and travel costs and so forth and so it does percolate into the larger economy. (I think we've had this discussion earlier in this thread.)

In some ways, it's one of the few "trickle-down" scenarios that actually does trickle down from the rich.

[nenjin]

Newt Gingrich is to the primaries as Charlie Sheen is to the Hollywood establishment. I figured at some point, his backers were going to realize they weren't getting any sort of return on their investment as Gingrich's stock fell pretty much everywhere. I'm surprised it took this long, but I suspect he's had more planned with his backers than just trying to *ahem* win the the primaries. I'm thinking whatever those prospects were got significantly dimmer.

So now he's going to do what Sheen did, and go completely maverick, get even louder and more absurd......before retreating and latching on to any life line that people will throw him. Personally, I can't wait to see him on DWTS with that corpse he married his wife.

[Realmfighter]

True, but I know at least a million or so in that wasted bundle of cash could have been spent cleaning up the hospital I was born in. The conditions there are terrible and people have to bring their own blankets sometimes. MRSA and everything. Is 20 million really worth prolonging the race? Don't Santorum and Ron Paul already do that?

Look at it this way, would the people who payed these insane sums supporting the candidates give that money to the needy if their wasn't this insanity to spend it on?