I like how even FOX News is admitting that Obama has better odds.
Well leading while your opponents trash each other is easy.
North Carolina
Romney on top of Santorum now in the Tarheel State by +4. Some good news for Team Obama in this crucial swing state, as a new PPP poll shows Obama winning here against all potential challengers. Tightest matchup is against Romney (Obama +3), widest is vs. Gingrich (Obama +9). Far from a done deal, but given that there's an outgoing unpopular Democratic governor and a Republican legislature this is a good starting point.
It's interesting that North Carolina is a swing state. It's also really good news for democrats. If North Carolina goes for Obama he is virtually guarenteed re-election. Large portions of the country are basically noncompetitive at this point. The only big blocks left seem to be:
Midwestern (75 electoral votes) (conservative to liberal)
Indianna (11) , Missouri (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania(20), Wisconsin (10)
South-East (57 electoral votes) (conservative to liberal)
North Carolina(15), Florida(29), Virginia(13)
The remaining competitive votes, Colorodo (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico, New Hampshire (4), Nebraska 2nd District (1) are few and far between.
Most states are either really likely democratic or republican. There are 212 democratic votes (California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Delaware, DC, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine).
There are 170 republican votes (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montanna, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska at large, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Lousianna, Arkansaw, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina).
If North Carolina is a tossup, then it's a good bet that Obama is going to win Florida and Virginia. Any factors that help him in NC will resonate there and they are more liberal culturally. And if he wins those plus the likely democrats, he's already up to 269 votes. Then he'd just need one more vote in any other place in the country to win it.
So imagine if the republican nominee wins every all but one competitive contest outside the south but loses those three. This includes Wisconsin where Obama leads Romney by 10 and Santorum by 7 and Pennsylvania where he leads them by 5. The republican also appeals in New Hampshire, who's social libertarianism is much at odds with the Midwestern key working class block. He picks up both the hookers of Nevada and the yuppies of Colorado. He manages to take New Mexico which is 46% Hispanic. Imagine he does all of these things but loses Nebraska's tiny and urban 2nd district (Omaha). He's had a really, really strong night, appealed to very disparate demographics and almost certainly won the popular vote.
...But he loses the college 268 to 270.I don't think the term "electoral lock" is appropriate, but as the system is set right up it really favors a democratic candidate. A large electoral block is solidly democratic. As a result a democratic candidate has many different paths to victory while a republican candidate has to dominate everywhere. An even halfassed performance by democrats will win. Imagine a democrat loses every competative race but Pennsylvania and Florida.
Good 'nuff. Imagine a Democrat wins the midwest,
that'll do. Imagine a democrat only wins the states they've won in the past 5 straight elections, then add in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico who's demographics have all made the states much more liberal in the past decade and which should grow more liberal in time.
Well that's exactly half the country. Imagine come 2016 that Arizona is majority non-white and a Hispanic democratic nominee manages to take it along with Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida even while getting clobbered elsewhere.
Hola Presidente. It's possible for a democrat to lose a competitive election. But there are a lot of ways for the democrat to win.
This situation won't hold for ever of course. But it's interesting to see how the republicans have painted themselves into a cultural identity corner. And also it may lead to this counting finally abolishing the horribly outdated electoral voting system and moving to a direct vote. It's already popular with liberals and many democratic states have signed the
interstate compact. If the republican establishment decides it's in their self interest and republican states start joining direct elections start looking quite possible.
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Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over (Read 769869 times)