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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 763911 times)

PTTG??

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2760 on: March 14, 2012, 08:41:12 pm »

In a run between Ron Paul and Obama, I'D vote for Ron, but that's because I want to secede and found my own nation anyway.
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EnigmaticHat

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2761 on: March 14, 2012, 11:45:53 pm »

In a run between Ron Paul and Obama, I'D vote for Ron, but that's because I want to secede and found my own nation anyway.

Because you think Ron Paul would be less likely to start the most mismatched civil war in history to get your one-man nation back into the union?  Or because you think that you'd get loads of immigrants once people figure out what Ron Paul is really like?

Personally in your position I'd vote Obama.  Sure, you're probably right about the immigrants (if that is indeed what you are thinking) but what if you run out of food?  I wouldn't expect any foreign aid out of our favorite libertarian.  Maybe if you're lucky, that reduced government of his won't be able to stop you from illegally immigrating back to America.  But if you go down that road, I hope you've got a lot of cash on hand (or are really good at stealing things) cause otherwise you can't expect the government to pay for your food.
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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2762 on: March 15, 2012, 08:03:49 am »

Paul is a boxer who's never taken a fall... because he's never been in a boxing match.
+1.


On that note, there's a slew of national-level polls out this morning.

National
Obama's Approval Rating:
Pew Research - Approve 50%, Disapprove 41%
Bloomberg - Approve 48%, Disapprove 47%
FOX News - Approve 47%, Disapprove 45%
Rasmussen - Approve 47%, Disapprove 52%

General Election - Obama vs. Romney:
Reuters/Ipsos - Obama +11
Bloomberg - TIE
Pew Research - Obama +12
Rasmussen - Romney +2
FOX News - Obama +4

General Election - Obama vs. Santorum:
Reuters/Ipsos - Obama +10
Bloomberg - Obama +6
Pew Research - Obama +18
Rasmussen - Obama +1
FOX News - Obama +12

General Election - Obama vs. Gingrich:
Reuters/Ipsos - Obama +17
Bloomberg - Obama +11
FOX News - Obama +18

General Election - Obama vs. Paul:
Bloomberg - Obama +5
FOX News - Obama +12

North Carolina
Romney on top of Santorum now in the Tarheel State by +4. Some good news for Team Obama in this crucial swing state, as a new PPP poll shows Obama winning here against all potential challengers. Tightest matchup is against Romney (Obama +3), widest is vs. Gingrich (Obama +9). Far from a done deal, but given that there's an outgoing unpopular Democratic governor and a Republican legislature this is a good starting point.

Texas
Poll the other day showed a narrow Romney lead, new poll by WPA shows Santorum up +8. Congressman Paul is only pulling 8% in his home state.

Pennsylvania
Santorum, OTOH, looks safe in his home state, up +14 to Romney. Quinnipiac poll shows Obama winning the Keystone State against all challengers, from +1 (Santorum) to +13 (Gingrich). Pattern seems to hold that Gingrich is the least electable Republican in the field (but don't try to tell Newt that...)
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2763 on: March 15, 2012, 04:17:03 pm »

Well, if you haven't had a TV on today, the Obama Administration has officially begun its general election campaign (as opposed to giving the press secretary snarky soundbites to make), by sending out Uncle Joe "Boxcar" Biden to give short-word speeches touting every accomplishment the administration can point to that isn't the healthcare bill.  Complete with overblown press releases and this crap.  I was wondering when we'd get to hear from Biden again, they seem to have kept him on a tight leash for the last year or so.  Meanwhile, Obama calling a Ginrich-who-will-not-be-named a founding member of the Flat Earth Society, as his rebuttal to the gas price "issue".  Welp, I guess we can kiss any legislation goodbye for the next eight months, but I'm pretty sure everyone was expecting that already.

Jesus Christ, I really need to update the OP.  That Super Tuesday list is huge.
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Sirus

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2764 on: March 15, 2012, 06:25:25 pm »

I like how even FOX News is admitting that Obama has better odds.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2765 on: March 15, 2012, 08:33:16 pm »

I like how even FOX News is admitting that Obama has better odds.

Well leading while your opponents trash each other is easy.

North Carolina
Romney on top of Santorum now in the Tarheel State by +4. Some good news for Team Obama in this crucial swing state, as a new PPP poll shows Obama winning here against all potential challengers. Tightest matchup is against Romney (Obama +3), widest is vs. Gingrich (Obama +9). Far from a done deal, but given that there's an outgoing unpopular Democratic governor and a Republican legislature this is a good starting point.

It's interesting that North Carolina is a swing state.  It's also really good news for democrats.  If North Carolina goes for Obama he is virtually guarenteed re-election.  Large portions of the country are basically noncompetitive at this point.  The only big blocks left seem to be:

Midwestern (75 electoral votes) (conservative to liberal)
Indianna (11) , Missouri (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania(20), Wisconsin (10)

South-East (57 electoral votes) (conservative to liberal)
North Carolina(15), Florida(29), Virginia(13)

The remaining competitive votes, Colorodo (9), Nevada (6), New Mexico, New Hampshire (4), Nebraska 2nd District (1) are few and far between. 

Most states are either really likely democratic or republican.  There are 212 democratic votes (California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Delaware, DC, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine).
There are 170 republican votes (Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montanna, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska at large, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Lousianna, Arkansaw, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, South Carolina).

If North Carolina is a tossup, then it's a good bet that Obama is going to win Florida and Virginia.  Any factors that help him in NC will resonate there and they are more liberal culturally.  And if he wins those plus the likely democrats, he's already up to 269 votes.  Then he'd just need one more vote in any other place in the country to win it.

So imagine if the republican nominee wins every all but one competitive contest outside the south but loses those three.  This includes Wisconsin where Obama leads Romney by 10 and Santorum by 7 and Pennsylvania where he leads them by 5.  The republican also appeals in New Hampshire, who's social libertarianism is much at odds with the Midwestern key working class block.  He picks up both the hookers of Nevada and the yuppies of Colorado.  He manages to take New Mexico which is 46% Hispanic.  Imagine he does all of these things but loses Nebraska's tiny and urban 2nd district (Omaha).  He's had a really, really strong night, appealed to very disparate demographics and almost certainly won the popular vote.

...But he loses the college 268 to 270.

I don't think the term "electoral lock" is appropriate, but as the system is set right up it really favors a democratic candidate.  A large electoral block is solidly democratic.  As a result a democratic candidate has many different paths to victory while a republican candidate has to dominate everywhere.  An even halfassed performance by democrats will win.  Imagine a democrat loses every competative race but Pennsylvania and Florida.  Good 'nuff.  Imagine a Democrat wins the midwest, that'll do.  Imagine a democrat only wins the states they've won in the past 5 straight elections, then add in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico who's demographics have all made the states much more liberal in the past decade and which should grow more liberal in time.  Well that's exactly half the country.  Imagine come 2016 that Arizona is majority non-white and a Hispanic democratic nominee manages to take it along with Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida even while getting clobbered elsewhere.  Hola Presidente.  It's possible for a democrat to lose a competitive election.  But there are a lot of ways for the democrat to win.

This situation won't hold for ever of course.  But it's interesting to see how the republicans have painted themselves into a cultural identity corner.  And also it may lead to this counting finally abolishing the horribly outdated electoral voting system and moving to a direct vote.  It's already popular with liberals and many democratic states have signed the interstate compact.  If the republican establishment decides it's in their self interest and republican states start joining direct elections start looking quite possible.
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Sirus

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2766 on: March 15, 2012, 08:38:36 pm »

So what exactly would that compact do? From a brief glance-over, it seems like it would do away with the electoral college and make the presidential election a pure popular vote. Is that the gist of it?
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nenjin

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2767 on: March 15, 2012, 08:45:35 pm »

Nebraska isn't really in contest, IMO. Lincoln and Omaha are liberal enclaves in an otherwise completely red state. Elections are one of the few times the out counties manage to trump to the capital cities. And iirc I think Omaha tends to vote red.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 08:49:05 pm by nenjin »
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2768 on: March 15, 2012, 09:16:00 pm »

Nebraska isn't really in contest, IMO. Lincoln and Omaha are liberal enclaves in an otherwise completely red state. Elections are one of the few times the out counties manage to trump to the capital cities. And iirc I think Omaha tends to vote red.

Obama won the Nebraska 2nd district in 2008.  He lost the state as a whole but Nebraska law says that the winner of each of the congressional districts get one elector.  That elector could potentially break a tie in favor the the democrats.

So what exactly would that compact do? From a brief glance-over, it seems like it would do away with the electoral college and make the presidential election a pure popular vote. Is that the gist of it?

The states would legally oblige themselves to cast all their electors in favor of the candidate who wins the national vote.  However this agreement only comes into effect once a sufficient number of states sign the compact as to win every election, i.e. states with 270 electoral votes combined.  So it defacto abolishes the electoral college but only requires about half the state legislatures to agree rather then the much higher theash hold for a constitutional amendment.  Right now the compact has 49% of the electoral votes it needs to come into effect.

And now for something completely different:
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 10:40:54 pm by mainiac »
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2769 on: March 16, 2012, 08:46:18 am »

Meanwhile in Santorumland...they're banning the porn.

Could be a bad move electorally, considering that conservative-leaning areas tend to be the biggest porn subscribers:D
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nenjin

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2770 on: March 16, 2012, 09:06:31 am »

Santorum lies as he breathes. Saw some clips of him on the Daily Show last night claiming that in the Netherlands people wear "Do not Euthanize me" bracelets and that 10% of hospital deaths are accidental euthanization.

And then his campaign manager said what's important is "what's in his heart" when a Dutch reporter called them on it.

Because not having a healthy respect for the truth, yeah, that's a value we should all cherish. Santorum 2012: Reality is what you make of it.

If Santorum were less of a rabid conservative, he could have easily stolen the nomination right out from under Romney. But he's become so smugly satisfied with his performance he feels free to say any stupid thing he thinks someone will believe.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2771 on: March 16, 2012, 09:23:00 am »

Well you know...Republicans are fond of proclaiming things that are "not meant to be a factual statement". (Thank you Jon Kyl, for giving us the most mockworthy quote of 2011)

Besides, the GOP base isn't particularly interested in facts, they want "truth". Stephen Colbert gets this as much as anyone I can think of...I mean, one of his very first shows discussed the whole concept of "truthiness" as it applies to the punditry, and it's so dead-on.


EDIT: See, it's simple. You develop an idea. Then you look for data to support your idea. If there's data which contradicts your idea, you dismiss it as liberal bias and disinformation. If the overwhelming body of data contradicts you, it's obviously a liberal conspiracy.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2012, 09:40:46 am by RedKing »
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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2772 on: March 16, 2012, 09:32:23 am »

I believe Colbert put it best when he said "I promise to feel the news at you."
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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2773 on: March 16, 2012, 11:22:19 am »

Reminder: Tomorrow there's a "makeup" caucus in Missouri, after the state GOP deliberately vacated the state's own set primary back in February (in order to avoid losing half their delegates for jumping early). Rick Santorum won that "beauty contest" primary pretty handily, with 55.2% of the votes.

Team Romney has been arguing ever since then that the primary win was meaningless and caucus-goers should not feel bound in any way to those results. Based on some early caucuses, Missourians may not agree.

Be interesting if Santorum were to the entire 53 delegates up for grabs. He did in fact win every single county in Missouri, even the urban ones containing St. Louis and Kansas City. Certainly doesn't put him close to Romney, but it continues to chip away at that lead and at the narrative that Team Romney increasingly tries to invoke: Mitt is going to win this whole thing eventually anyways, so why don't all the others just go ahead and drop out and save everybody the time and (especially) money, please? For the love of God, please?!!??

Any gains Santorum makes in Puerto Rico will likely be undercut by Puerto Rico, though. His "lrn 2 speek English noobs" thing will hurt him there, although strategically that was probably done more with states like Texas and California in mind, hoping to appeal to the nativists there (which could more than offset the 23 delegates PR's worth).

Which brings up Illinois next Tuesday. Most recent polls show Romney with about a 4-6 point lead there. That lead could be fragile if he makes any kind of gaffe and/or Santorum is perceived to come out of the weekend with any kind of momentum.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #2774 on: March 16, 2012, 01:16:57 pm »

Nate Silver had a good post a while back that showed that Illinois is basically a must-win state for Santorum if he wants to force a brokered convention.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/#more-28081
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