Given that Gingrich is pretty solidly in 2nd place right now in South Carolina and Florida, if the attacks continue (and more importantly if Romney continues to walk around with one foot lodged firmly in his mouth) then Gingrich could make the mother of all comebacks and win South Carolina and Florida. At least until he puts his foot deeper down his own throat, and we're subjected to yet another spin of the "Who Wants To Lose To Obama 2012 Invitational" wheel. I've heard of a circular firing line, but I've never seen a circular suicide line before.
I suppose what happens in Florida will be the real decision of the race. It used to be South Carolina was the first "real" primary, because it's more expensive to campaign in than Iowa and New Hampshire, so it was considered proof of who could put together a real campaign. Thanks to
Citizens United, as long as you can pick up one crazy millionaire who wants an impact on the race, anybody can survive. Combined with the Republican primary going mostly to proportional-caucus delegation, where it's almost like making a parliament, the "real" nomination could drag on for months as candidates overtake each other from one state to the next, with the money jockeying behind them.
Except for Florida, which is the first "big" state, with expensive TV advertising and too many people to go door to door, with their own weird mix of issues between Cuban Republicans and people who used to be New England Republicans and plain old Southern Folk. And most importantly: Florida is the biggest state on the calendar that's still "Winner Take All" in nomination, with as many delegates as Iowa and South Carolina combined. If Romney wins Florida, the race will be effective over as everyone else's financial backing dries up and he maintains a commanding lead until the convention. If anybody
but Romney wins Florida, especially if it somehow winds up being Newt Gingrich, it's going to be a long fight.
I still predict a Romney candidacy in the end no matter what, it's just a question of when it'll be obvious to the rest of the campaigns and their donors, and how many aspects of Romney will have tailor-made attack ads ready to go by the end.