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[RedKing]

Situation looks pretty grim in Zawiyah this morning. Government tanks have made their way into the city and apparently control the main square. If the international community is going to get off its' collective ass and do something, this would be the time. Else, you're probably going to see a complete massacre. 

Rebels tried to move west from Ra's Lanuf during the night, but ran into heavy resistance including fire from government helicopters, and fell back to Ra's Lanuf.

And AJ is now reporting that Misrata is under heavy attack by government forces. They really need to hold the line in Misrata, otherwise Qaddafi will have more or less an unbroken supply chain to his forces trying to oppose the Benghazi "army".

Worth noting too, is that so far Libya's Tuareg tribes in the southern deserts have stayed out of the fight. That isn't all that surprising, but it could play a crucial role in the endgame. If one side or the other gets a dominant upper hand, I'd expect to see the Tuaregs mount up and ride in to deliver the killing blow. They're not going to pick a side until they know who's going to win. If the rebels can break through to grab Sirte, and then link up with the forces in Misrata, that might hit the threshold needed to bring the Tuareg into the fight.

[DJ]

Shit, this doesn't look good. I hope that a no-fly zone is declared while Gadaffi's airforce is in the air, and the USA fleet promptly shoots them all down. Without air support, things would be a lot different.

[RedKing]

Yeah, a no-fly zone would help (especially in giving the rebels a secure rear area), but it's the armor and heavy artillery that's really the problem. Even though you did have some tanks captured by guys wielding hunting knives, those are going to be the exceptions to the rule.

AJ now reporting that rebels have retaken Bin Jawad (village west of Ra's Lanuf, about 1/2 of the way to Sirte), so it looks like they're continuing the push west after the initial setbacks this morning.

Also reports that tanks made it into the main square in Misrata, but are now trapped and under siege by the rebel forces there.

Spoiler: Cue reaction. (click to show/hide)

UPDATE: At least one tank destroyed in Misrata, possibly more. Indications now are the rebels basically pulled a Cannae tactic and allowed the lead armor platoon to make it into the city center, then encircled them and let 'em have it.

Also, reports are emerging from Az-Zawiyah stating that the rebels have beaten back government forces, capturing 4 Land Rovers with anti-aircraft weapons, tanks and jeeps and killing 21 government troops. If true, that city is full of badasses.

And...the US is starting to pull people out of Yemen, after four government soldiers there were ambushed and killed amid growing protests. Not clear if the ambush was linked to the protests or was an al-Qaeda attack (AQ is very active in Yemen, and any popular uprising there has to be scrutinized a lot closer for links to AQ)

2nd UPDATE: Rebel forces in Benghazi captured an 8-man team of British SAS paratroopers. Apparently, the SAS team were bodyguards for a junior diplomat who the British sent to enter into negotiations with the National Libyan Council in Benghazi. But either the Brits didn't tell anyone they were coming, or the message just didn't get out to the right people (understandable, given the chaos on the ground and the ad hoc nature of the provisional government). Looks like no harm, no foul -- the SAS team and diplomat are safe and accounted for, and the NLC said it's just waiting for the British government to vouch for them. Wonder if this portends official recognition by the UK of the NLC as legitimate government of Libya? That could trigger a wave of similar formal recognitions.

[Ampersand]

2nd UPDATE: Etc...

This is all kinds of good news for the rebels. Forcing the UK to openly admit that it's doing diplomatic talks with the Rebel council is official recognition in a sense, and could force the hand of other countries to recognize the government in Benghazi as well. Would be a big first step.

[Taricus]

I still stand by the fact the Gadaffi steals rebels in ambulances to feed them to some bugs.

[DJ]

What I don't understand is why would the British use covert diplomacy and send an actual diplomat to Libya. Don't they have phones in Benghazi?

[Jopax]

I get the secret deal vibe from all this, the diplomat was probably supposed to make some sort of offer to the rebels, probably military assistance, but you know, secretly

[Leafsnail]

What I don't understand is why would the British use covert diplomacy and send an actual diplomat to Libya. Don't they have phones in Benghazi?

Because you'd just have to look in the phonebook to find the number of the NLC?

[Sheb]

Well, it cannot be that difficult. Much easier than sending a man there. I'm getting the whole "secret deal that we don't want Wikileaks to leaks in 6 month's time" here.

[RedKing]

They probably also want a better sense of who they're dealing with before they start making any deals. It was apparently a junior diplomat, so I think this is just the early stages of feeling out the NLC and deciding whether they're reliable enough to back.

There are a number of former Qaddafi ministers in the NLC's "Transitional Council", mostly the deiplomats and ministers who resigned early on.

Reports seem to indicate a lot of back-and-forth fighting on the road to Sirte. Basically, the rebels get hit with airstrikes and retreat, then as soon as the planes turn back, they regroup and rush down the road. The Qaddafi ground forces are actually falling back each time the rebels surge forward, but then Qaddafi's airpower pushes the rebels back. This is liable to go back and forth for a while unless the rebels can bring up some effective anti-aircraft weapons.

Man, a covert shipment of MANPADS would be handy right about now...

[Leafsnail]

The thing is, it would be difficult to a) connect to the people who are actually in control there rather than potentially random people wanting to claim they are in control and b) to convince them that you really do represent the UK government.  If you do it over the phone, both sides have to take everything on trust, wheras with a diplomatic mission there is no such problem.

It'd probably be a temporary secret.  It wouldn't really matter if people knew about it after the UK government recognizes the NLC.

[olemars]

They probably also want a better sense of who they're dealing with before they start making any deals. It was apparently a junior diplomat, so I think this is just the early stages of feeling out the NLC and deciding whether they're reliable enough to back.

There are a number of former Qaddafi ministers in the NLC's "Transitional Council", mostly the deiplomats and ministers who resigned early on.

Reports seem to indicate a lot of back-and-forth fighting on the road to Sirte. Basically, the rebels get hit with airstrikes and retreat, then as soon as the planes turn back, they regroup and rush down the road. The Qaddafi ground forces are actually falling back each time the rebels surge forward, but then Qaddafi's airpower pushes the rebels back. This is liable to go back and forth for a while unless the rebels can bring up some effective anti-aircraft weapons.

Man, a covert shipment of MANPADS would be handy right about now...

The rebels have SA-7 MANPADS but probably little knowledge and skill in how to use it unless there are some '73 veterans among them. Of course, SA-7 is old and not top of the line, but so are the planes they're facing. With the shootdowns, ejections and defections that have already happened, Gaddafi is almost out of Mirage F1's (1 remaining at best) and Su-24 (2 remaining at best). That leaves him with a bunch of rusting MiG-21, 23 and Su-22, which are less capable. A bigger threat are the Mi-24 Hind gunships, of which he might have perhaps two dozen operational, but helicopters are more vulnerable to AA guns.

What they really need is a good sandstorm.

EDIT: Looks like the rebels are finding more and more heavy kit and putting it to use

[RedKing]

True. Then EpicLibyanMan and his friends could whip out a can of axe-chopping.

Dunno quite how they're doing it, but so far the defenders in both Misrata and Az-Zawiyah are proving to be pretty damn adroit at tank-killing. Urban combat's always a bad situation for tanks, but considering they're using mostly Molotov cocktails, hand grenades and light arms, it's still amazing how many tanks and APCs they've managed to capture and/or disable.

Qaddafi may have made a strategic miscalcuation by sending so many tanks to besiege these two cities, instead of using them to confront the rebels on the open coastal road, where tanks would have a major advantage (although maybe not...the rebels seem to have lots of RPGs and they're riding mostly in agile Toyota pickup trucks...kind of the land equivalent of torpedo boats)

Sounds like Bin Jawad (halfway between Sirte and Ra's Lanuf) is solidifying as the front line:

The new rebel front line was two miles from Bin Jawad, firing rockets and mortar bombs at the army which returned fire with similar weapons plus heavy artillery. Hundreds of fighters armed with machineguns and assault rifles were waiting to advance.

"The firing is sustained, there is the thud of shells landing, the whoosh of rockets, puffs of smoke and heavy machine gun fire in the distance," a Reuters correspondent said.

The Guardian has a good realtime blog with pictures.


Also, an update on the SAS/Brit diplomat situation:

Confirmed: The eight members of a British mission earlier reported 'captured' in Benghazi have boarded the HMS Cumberland and have left the country, Al Jazeera's Hoda Hamid reports.

She saw them board the boat, and believes they are headed toward Malta. The ship's destination cannot be confirmed.

She also said she was shown an official letter explaining seven of them were providing the security detail for the eighth, a diplomat, who was attempting to get in contact with opposition forces.

Members of the opposition have said the eight were released, as anti-Gaddafi groups were also attempting to make contact with international diplomats.

On the surface, it's seen to be a bit of an embarassing misunderstanding for all sides involved. What more there is to be uncovered remains to be seen.

Opposition officials said the man carried advanced computer equipment with them, which they will display "in the near future".

 

[Jopax]

Ah, so it was to help them, if anything they should probably be able to coordinate themselves with the new equipment, provided they got enough of it

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Huh, so the revolutionaries let the SAS team go without even contacting the UK to confirm their identity. That's...quite noble of them.