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[Darvi]

First, he votes TolyK, in MyLo, where No Lynch is the only sane course of action.

It's a pressure vote. You know that I can unvote, right? Also, I've never claimed to be sane.

He then proceeds to OMGUS me with a FoS.

You're all suspicious. Zrk2 too!

Also, 25% to lynch scum. Seriously. Divide 100% by the amount of players alive.

We've got 4 votes, of which one is guaranteed not to be for scum, and then there's all the non-votes. I know I messed up with my calculations, but it's definitely not 25%.

Anyways, forget any numbers I posted, as I've calculated on wrong premises and stuff.

Zrk2: Why did you say ZeSpy should be lynched despite not actually voting for him?

[Ottofar]

Nobody's gonna vote themself.
It's 25%.

[Darvi]

Nobody's gonna vote themself.

That's why I said that at least one vote won't be for scum. There's 4 possibilities for lynching, but you forget that there can also be ties. And of course, no-lynching. Less than 25%.

Now if we would vote for no-lynching...That would leave us with a 2-1 scenario. Which has an  exactly 25% win chance for town.

So yeah, apparently It's beneficial to no-vote, but I'm not gonna unvote until Tolyk answers.

[Darvi]

No wait, scrap that. got it all wrong again.

Umm.., lets see.

Either scum votes first or town votes first.
First scum votes one town.
That town then votes for the one voting for him, since he knows that he's gonna lose otherwise. Second town then has 50% to vote correctly.
If town votes first, then he has 50% chance to be correct. If he's correct, then scum's gonna obviously vote him back, leaving the second town with another 50% chance.

That makes... 50%/2+25%/2=37.5%

Even better!

[Zrk2]

Zrk2: Why did you say ZeSpy should be lynched despite not actually voting for him?

Because he was already being lynched, and by replacing in this late no matter what happened his replacement would be out of the loop, and generally ineffective. Therefore, in the absence of a better choice, he was the best choice for lynching.

[TolyK]

Well, Tolyk, I see that you didn't contribute a lot last day. Care to elaborate on that?

I'm in 2 mafia games and in lack of sleep due to a project. Sorry.

Mylo, eh?
1 scum.
33.3% of voting right
66.7% of voting wrong.

Zrk2: Why did you say ZeSpy should be lynched despite not actually voting for him?

Because he was already being lynched, and by replacing in this late no matter what happened his replacement would be out of the loop, and generally ineffective. Therefore, in the absence of a better choice, he was the best choice for lynching.

you mean you bandwagoned without a vote? hm...

[Darvi]

33.3% of voting right
66.7% of voting wrong.

When you only look at the individual votes, then you'd be right. Alas, it's a little more complex.

Oh, and unvote, now that you've answered.

[lordnincompoop]

Vote Count:
Ottofar (0):
Zrk2 (0):
Darvi (0):
TolyK (0):

No Lynch (1): Ottofar

Not Voting (3): Zrk2, Darvi, TolyK

[TolyK]

eh I'll be lurking for a bit as I need to meet a deadline 
I will post when I find something interesting though.

[Zrk2]

Well, Tolyk, I see that you didn't contribute a lot last day. Care to elaborate on that?

I'm in 2 mafia games and in lack of sleep due to a project. Sorry.

Mylo, eh?
1 scum.
33.3% of voting right
66.7% of voting wrong.

Zrk2: Why did you say ZeSpy should be lynched despite not actually voting for him?

Because he was already being lynched, and by replacing in this late no matter what happened his replacement would be out of the loop, and generally ineffective. Therefore, in the absence of a better choice, he was the best choice for lynching.

you mean you bandwagoned without a vote? hm...

No, I recognized a trend, and acknowledged it's validity. Then I continued about my scumhunting.

[Ottofar]

M'kay.

Zrk, scumpicks?

Darvi, who'd you kill tonight?

TolyK, who would you not lynch?

[Zrk2]

Not sure at the moment. I have some homework, then I will go back through the thread.

[Darvi]

Darvi, who'd you kill tonight?

Goethe, were he still alive.

Wait, you mean here in Mafia, right?
Hmm... not sure. However Tolyk has posted quite alot, so the likelyhood of him being scum is kinda low (especially if you consider he's still a newbie. the risk of messing up  would be to high to post to often).

So I'm going with...*flips coin* The random number god has chosen Zrk2. Yeah, not quite a professional MO, but I'm still not sure how to interpret you guys.

[Zrk2]

My scum pick is Darvi for active lurking. He has about every third post, but he doesn't actually contribute anything, other than how not to do math.

[TolyK]

However Tolyk has posted quite alot, so the likelyhood of him being scum is kinda low (especially if you consider he's still a newbie. the risk of messing up  would be to high to post to often).

So why is that blue text?
Any questions?

My scum pick is Darvi for active lurking. He has about every third post, but he doesn't actually contribute anything, other than how not to do math.

He does that in all the mafia game's I've seen him in.