The odds don't matter, it's immoral to plead guilty to a crime you didn't commit. If people didn't do that this wouldn't even be an issue.
Morality bends
really damn quick when you're looking at cutting your time in prison to a third
Less time you're in there the less likely your orifices get plundered or limbs mangled. Considering the shithole that is the American prison system, I'm not sure if reducing your time in it by as much as possible could really be considered immoral. Definitely not
moral, but survival tends to trump principles in that sort of situation, and reasonably so. Amorality is a thing, and considering the risks and costs involved in prison time, it's definitely what's going on here. Personally, morality can go blow itself if it means staying out of the rape box.
Pleading guilty for a guarantee of a misdemeanor instead of a possibility of a felony would probably fall into a similar category of action considering how badly being a released felon screws you over in the states.
Now, if the states prison system
wasn't basically a rolling human rights violation and there was some way to get out of second class citizen status after getting out of prison, then... yeah, there wouldn't be "an excuse not to try". But with things as they are, you do whatever you damn well can to either reduce the odds of going to prison or reduce the length you're in there. And, as True notes, going before the jury can easily increase those odds, sometimes drastically. You
really can't expect people to reasonably act otherwise, unfortunately. Now, improve the situation behind bars and post time... maybe. Definitely more traction for condemnation. But not before that happens, yeah.