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[SIGVARDR]

edited.

[Leafsnail]

I think they'd also potentially be in range of any North Korean nuclear weaponry.

Although obviously South Korea would get it first...

Invasion of North Korea... is not a good idea.  They're supposed to have an army (including reserves) of 7 million (probably a false figure, but 1 million is plausible).  If you look at how Afghanistan went with far, far fewer hostiles...

[Grakelin]

Japan commonly hires mercenary groups like Blackwater to defend their installations, so they should be okay. As long as the North Koreans don't distract them with civilians to shoot at, then it's all over olololololol

I hear on the border of North and South Korea, the South Korean guards look out into North Korea, and the North Korean guards look at eachother so neither one tries to escape.

[alway]

IIRC, the SK capital is within artillery range of NK. A good deal of SK would be wiped out in an exchange, although NK would be toppled.

[Duuvian]

Taking down the North Korea military is easy, the hard part is keeping North Korea from becoming another Somalia.

Actually, I was under the impression that N. Korea has an enormous army for it's size, something like the 5th largest army in the world. In the meantime, the nations of the UN who could effect a war's outcome are mobilized in two distant parts of the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_korea

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Kim Jong-il is the Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army and Chairman of the National Defence Commission of North Korea. The Korean People's Army (KPA) is the name for the collective armed personnel of the North Korean military. The army has four branches: Ground Force, Naval Force, Air Force, and the Artillery Guidance Bureau. According to the U.S. Department of State, North Korea has the fifth-largest army in the world, at an estimated 1.21 million armed personnel, with about 20% of men aged 17–54 in the regular armed forces.[66]

Interestingly after looking up South Korea I found this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_korea

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

A long history of invasions by neighbors and the unresolved tension with North Korea have prompted South Korea to allocate 2.6% of its GDP and 15% of all government spending to its military, while maintaining compulsory conscription for men.[37]  Consequently, South Korea has the world's sixth largest number of active troops,[38]  the world's second-largest number of reserve troops[38]  and the twelfth largest defence budget. The Republic of Korea, with a regular military force numbering 3.7 million regular personnel among a total national population of 50 million people, has the second highest number of soldiers per capita in the world,[38]  after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.[39]

Perhaps South Korea wouldn't be such a pushover as I feared. This is weird though, in South Korea:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

All South Korean males are constitutionally required to serve in the military, typically for a period of two years. However, there have been debates about shortening the length of the military services, and even dismissing the mandatory service itself. The government recently allowed some male students who were in the process of earning a university bachelor's degree and master's degree to dismiss the military requirements to allow them to further study and research their fields. Furthermore, Koreans of mixed race are exempt from military duty if they "look distinctively biracial".[41]

Also, about a sneak attack from China on N. Korea, don't count on it. China is most likely supporting N. Korea's craziness as they know the U.N. can't really do much about it. Ditto for Russia and Iran.

And when it says disagreed in regards to north Korea,south Korea has wanted us to mount an attack on north Korea and make it plain Korea for some time now.We actually have been promoting the peace.

Yes, this makes me worried. It would be a very foolish time for S. Korea to try something like this though, seeing as we haven't pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps they are trying to pre-empt and decision by the US to send the Iraq troops to Afghanistan and deploy them to Korea instead? Since the American government doesn't seem to try very often to plan for more than a year at most in advance.

[Sensei]

The government will take stern measures against people who spread "groundless rumors" about the sunken frigate Cheonan through Internet portals and other mediums.

Hurr hur hur.

[kuro_suna]

Taking down the North Korea military is easy, the hard part is keeping North Korea from becoming another Somalia.

Actually, I was under the impression that N. Korea has an enormous army for it's size, something like the 5th largest army in the world. In the meantime, the nations of the UN who could effect a war's outcome are mobilized in two distant parts of the world.

They have a huge number of ground troops but not much equipment and are likely poorly trained. For example their air force only has a handful of modern aircraft and although officially its vary large I seriously doubt most of the museum pieces its composed of are still flight capable.

[Aqizzar]

Japan commonly hires mercenary groups like Blackwater to defend their installations, so they should be okay.

I want some info on this.  I'm not sure I believe it, but it doesn't strike me as unbelievable either.  They already used that plot though.  Given Kim Jong Il's love of western entertainment, I'm sure he's already taken precautions against such an attack.

[Il Palazzo]

They have a huge number of ground troops but not much equipment and are likely poorly trained. For example their air force only has a handful of modern aircraft and although officially its vary large I seriously doubt most of the museum pieces its composed of are still flight capable.

Still, we're talking about 1 milion-strong armies who hate each other, fighting in a largely mountainous area. Whatever the war would turn out to be, one seems certain: it'd be long and very bloody.(that's actually two things, I know)

As for USA's involvement in the case of open conflict, one needs to consider the popular support for sending troops to another combat zone. I'm getting a feeling that after Afghanistan and Iraq, most Americans have enough of wars. This wouldn't be a popular decision for Obama.

And China... I'm not so sure they'd support the Northerners. They've been enjoying good relations wiht SK for almost two decades now, while NK proves to be a troublesome and destabilising neighbour. Maybe they'd just jump on the bandwagon and grab a part of North Korea for themselves? They'd be helping the mutual war effort of the SK and the West, so nobody could really complain. Except Russia, maybe.

I'm still at loss as to the reason for the sinking incident. I can't find a good reason for Kim Jong-il to order such an action, uless there are some cases of faltering patriotism within the Party and the nation. After all, the economic losses are severe.
Or one could embrace a conspiracy-ish theory and assume it actually was staged by the South, to gain a casus beli and finally solve the long due problem.

[Nikov]

North Korea is a very capable opponent which has been spending the bulk of its production over last fifty years preparing for conflict. The quality of its equipment isn't terribly important in this regard; Cold War relics fight just as well as modern weapons in the sort of massive conventional infantry fights you'd see in the Koreas. The West will own the night, especially with infantry, and air supremacy will give us the ability to maneuver, but North Korea's air defense network is a staggeringly robust and redundant system and I would expect air power to be much less effective here than in the desert or even Bosnia.

I give it an easy 100,000 casualties between combatants, and no one-sided campaigns. Civilian casualties are unthinkable, as in, I am just not going to think about it. Seoul is in artillery range, as posted, of about 70 long-range hardened artillery positions specifically designed to pop up, fire a salvo, and return to cover faster than we can direct counter-battery fire.

In short this will not be a Desert Storm, this will be an Italy.

[sonerohi]

South Korea will not be hurting for soldiers and joiners. I've got maybe 6 or 7 SK exchange students in my class. As much as they dislike Japan for past wars on their soil, quoting one kid "North Korean assholes make Japan look saintly". I don't think NK would fuck around because if they did,a trio of nations they cannot handle are their enemies.

[Grakelin]

Here, Aqizzar, one source where Xe Services (Blackwater) is protecting radar systems.

[SIGVARDR]

edited.

[Servant Corps]

Am I the only person who objects to Lee's actions increasing tension in Korea?  I really think the Sunshine policy needs to be re-implemented...but eh. I'm pretty sure the North Koreans has done far worse, and that the best way to respond to provocation is...uh...not to respond to them?

Whatever. In any "Third Korean War" (the Second Korean War occured during the Vietnam War), China is going to likely annex a part of Korea, as a buffer zone mostly. If that happens, there's going to problems...lots of problems...because the South Korean nationalists want to reclaim all of Korea, while the Americans would be relucantat for that.

There is also the little problem of absorbing the new conquests.

[Il Palazzo]

As far as the citizens not supporting The U.S in helping South Korea should war break out,that is irrelevant.You Don't have a mutual defense treaty just to say "sorry guys,some people are protesting,we can't help you." It would be exactly the same as breaking an oath.That said,our current commander in chief might just be willing to do that.

There's a difference between declaring a war, or declaring support as per treaty, and actual involvement.
Look at 1939 and the Poland's alliance with UK and France.

That is to say, most likely USA would in fact send some support, just not so much as to piss off the electorate. For that reason it's unwise to say that NK would fight a war with SK and USA, as the later would hardly commit a lot of forces.