I tried 'Play Now'. Once. *shudder*
2-4 picks
1 axe - unless there are no trees
No anvil - buy in Autumn
20 turtles - bones and shells, better than cave lobster IMHO
1 each of the cheap meats - cook for empty barrels
40 Dwarven Beer - dorfs need booze
1 each of the other booze - cook for empty barrels
20 Plump Helmets - brew, not eat
20 Sweet Pod Seeds - need for trade goods
10 each Pig Tail/Dimple Cup/Cave Wheat Seeds
2 silk - moods
2 small gems - moods
20 leather - bags, bags, bags... more if there's magma
4 dogs - bones, meat, leather ... also good for eating kobolds
10 Bauxite (if there's magma)
10 - 20 wood - more if no trees, less if heavily forested
1 Farmer/Cook ... ALWAYS. good meals = happy dorfs, and syrup roasts for trade
1 carpenter, maybe with metalsmith, for beds/bins/barrels
1 mason, tables/chairs/doors
1 dyer
1 weaver
1 clothier
1 boss (appraiser/consoler/pacifier, maybe negotiator & JoI)
I may add miller or thresher to one of the above, armor and weaponsmith depend on what the dorfs like.
I cook the meat, brew the plumps, plant sweet pods, and trade +Dwarven Syrup Roasts+ for the first 2 years. By then, I should be turning out dyed Pig Tail crafts, with images sewn on them. The roasts are good enough to clean out the caravans with large profit margins, and the cloth lets me cut back on farming later. If there are cave spiders, I can practically shut down farming except for dye and a little booze after 3 years. High volume smithing doesn't usually start until 2-4 years in, although tagging dorf with dabbling skills in case they get a mood can start in the first Autumn.
Mining and woodcutting level fast, and if I strike ore or gems early I can always mine around it. Cloth provides bags, ropes, clothes, and you can grow it right away. Bags can also raise room values quickly for emergency noble rooms.
JMZ